Several key minerals that are essential inputs for digital and renewable energy technologies face high exposure to export restrictions, and the number of restrictions continues to rise, a new OECD report finds.
The annual update of the OECD Inventory of Export Restrictions on Critical Raw Materials tracks export restrictions and supports analysis of their impact on availability, prices and global supply chains. The OECD continues to monitor these measures over time. The latest edition, which analyses measures implemented through the end of 2024, shows that export restrictions on critical raw materials have increased steadily in the past 15 years, reaching an all-time high. Although the growth rate of new export restrictions slowed from 3.4% in 2023 to 0.6% in 2024, a wider range of countries, particularly in Africa and Asia, introduced new restrictions.
Some minerals essential for energy systems, such as cobalt, manganese, graphite and rare-earth elements, saw particularly high exposure to export restrictions. Roughly 70% of global exports of cobalt and manganese were subject to at least one export restriction between 2022 and 2024. 16% of trade in critical raw materials monitored by the OECD faced at least one export restriction over the same period.
“Countries around the world depend on reliable access to critical raw materials for economic growth, innovation and energy security,” OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said at the OECD Critical Minerals Forum in Istanbul. “Export restrictions can increase supply chain vulnerabilities in highly concentrated supply chains by limiting export volumes and driving up prices. Improving transparency on these measures is key to promoting more open and diversified markets for critical minerals, incentivising much needed investment to scale up production and promoting mutually beneficial partnerships with producer countries.”
Click here to see the chart.
While demand for critical raw materials is rising rapidly, supply remains slow to adjust and highly concentrated. Although the leading producers differ by material, the top three countries for each of cobalt, lithium and nickel account for over two-thirds of global production, rising to nearly 90% for rare earth elements. There is also concentration in the policy measures adopted, with India (19%), China (17%), Argentina (6%), Viet Nam (5%) and Burundi (4%) accounting for over half of all new measures implemented between 2009 and 2024.
Waste and scrap materials remain the most frequently restricted category of critical raw materials in 2024, reflecting both environmental concerns and growing interest in the circular economy as a source of metals and minerals. In addition, export restrictions on upstream supply chains, such as ores and minerals, grew sharply between 2009 and 2024, having increased tenfold during this period.
Highly restrictive measures, such as export prohibitions and quotas, have become increasingly prevalent, accounting for more than one-third of new measures in 2024. Revenue generation has been the fastest-growing stated rationale behind export restrictions since the early 2010s and became the most cited reason in 2024, accounting for nearly half of measures.
For more information on OECD work on export restrictions on critical raw materials, visit https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/sub-issues/export-restrictions-on-critical-raw-materials.html.
The OECD provides data, analysis and platforms for dialogue to build more resilient and well-functioning critical raw material supply chains, including to help unlock new critical mineral supply chain investment, support economic growth and development in producer and consumer countries, and protect mine workers’ human rights and the environment. For more information, visit: https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/policy-issues/critical-minerals.html.
 
 

Compliments of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

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The European Commission today presented its plan to modernise EU lawmaking, ensuring that laws are clearer, simpler, more efficiently enforced, based on solid evidence and better aligned with the needs of citizens and businesses.
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, said: “Europe needs clear and coherent legislation that fully responds to the needs of our citizens and businesses. Today, we deliver our plan to make EU lawmaking more efficient, more effective, and more transparent. We will apply simplicity by design and continue to ensure every rule is supported by strong evidence. But that’s not all: we will also tackle gold-plating, speed up enforcement and clean up our current stock of legislation. This is a critical contribution to bolster our competitiveness.”
The Commission will act in five areas:

Simplicity by design: EU laws must be easy to understand, apply and enforce. The Commission aims to embed ‘simplicity by design’ into every proposal, ensuring clarity on who must act, how to comply, and the consequences of non-compliance.
Strengthening the better regulation framework: the better regulation system sets out the principles that the European Commission follows when preparing new initiatives. It is already among the most advanced in the world. It will be further improved to enhance transparency, stakeholder engagement and efficiency.
Regulatory deep cleaning: while the Union continues to pursue ambitious policies, it must also put its large stock of existing legislation in order. An Action Plan will tackle inconsistencies, overlapping and overly complex provisions in 12 priority areas.
Tackling regulatory gold-plating: the Commission will help Member States identify and tackle unnecessary complexity and barriers to the Single Market where they apply stricter or more extensive requirements than those set out in EU law.
Faster, robust enforcement: the Commission will strengthen enforcement of the Single Market rulebook in selected policy areas. A focus will also be placed on reducing the number of long-standing infringement cases.

At a time of profound global shifts, an efficient and effective regulatory framework is essential for European competitiveness. Simpler, better-designed, and easier-to-implement rules will therefore help to unlock economic potential and promote a more dynamic and integrated Single Market.
The European Parliament and the Council are essential partners in helping to make the objectives outlined in this Communication a reality. To that end, the Commission calls on the co-legislators to ensure that ‘simplicity by design’ and better regulation principles are applied consistently, by each Institution, during every legislative process.
Today’s Communication builds on President von der Leyen‘s Political Guidelines for 2024-2029, the commitments she made at the Leaders’ Retreat on 12 February 2026, and the Communication ‘A Simpler and Faster Europe‘.The post European Commission | Proposal of a Plan for Simpler, Clearer and Better Enforced EU Rules first appeared on European American Chamber of Commerce New York [EACCNY] | Your Partner for Transatlantic Business Resources.

Commodity prices forecast to rise by 16% this year, fueling inflation and slowing growth. 
Energy prices are projected to surge by 24% this year to their highest level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as the war in the Middle East sends a severe shock through global commodity markets, according to the World Bank Group’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook. Overall commodity prices are forecast to rise 16% in 2026, driven by soaring energy and fertilizer prices and record-high prices for several key metals.
The shock will have serious implications for job creation and development, the analysis indicates.
Attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 35% of global seaborne crude oil trade, have triggered the largest oil supply shock on record, with an initial reduction in global oil supply of about 10 million barrels per day. Even after moderating from their recent peak, Brent oil prices remained more than 50% higher in mid-April than they were at the start of the year. Brent oil is forecast to average $86 a barrel in 2026, up sharply from $69 a barrel in 2025. These forecasts assume that the most acute disruptions end in May and that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually returns to pre-war levels by late 2026.
“The war is hitting the global economy in cumulative waves: first through higher energy prices, then higher food prices, and finally, higher inflation, which will push up interest rates and make debt even more expensive,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics. “The poorest people, who spend the highest share of their income on food and fuels, will be hit the hardest, as will developing economies already struggling under heavy debt burdens. All of this is a reminder of a stark truth: war is development in reverse.”
Fertilizer prices are projected to increase by 31% in 2026, driven by a 60% jump in urea prices. Fertilizer affordability will fall to its worst level since 2022, eroding farmers’ incomes and threatening future crop yields. If the conflict proves more prolonged, these pressures on food supply and affordability could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity this year, according to the World Food Programme.
Prices for base metals, including aluminum, copper, and tin, are also expected to reach all-time highs, reflecting strong demand related to industries including data centers, electric vehicles, and renewable energy. Precious metals continue to break price and volatility records, with average prices forecast to increase 42% in 2026, as geopolitical uncertainty fuels demand for safe-haven assets.
Rising commodity prices caused by these shocks will increase inflation and dampen growth worldwide. In developing economies, inflation is now projected to average 5.1% in 2026 under the baseline assumptions—a full percentage point higher than was expected before the war and an increase from 4.7% last year. Growth in developing economies will also deteriorate as higher prices for essentials weigh on incomes and exports from the Middle East face sharp curbs. Developing economies are expected to grow by 3.6% in 2026, a downward revision of 0.4 percentage point since January. Economies directly impacted by conflict will be hardest hit, and 70% of commodity importers and more than 60% of commodity exporters worldwide could see weaker growth than was projected in January.
Commodity prices could rise even higher if hostilities escalate or supply disruptions from the war last longer than projected. Brent oil prices could average as high as $115 a barrel in 2026 in a scenario where critical oil and gas facilities suffer more damage and export volumes are slow to recover. This in turn would have ripple effects on prices for fertilizer and alternative energy sources such as biofuels. Under this scenario, inflation in developing economies could rise to 5.8% this year, a level exceeded only in 2022 over the past decade.
“The succession of shocks over the decade has sharply reduced the fiscal space available to respond to the current historic energy supply crisis,” said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group. “Governments must resist the temptation of broad, untargeted fiscal support measures that could distort markets and erode fiscal buffers. Instead, they should focus on rapid, temporary support targeted to the most vulnerable households.”
The report’s special focus finds that oil-price volatility during periods of rising geopolitical risk is roughly twice as high as during calmer periods, with a geopolitically driven 1% decline in oil production pushing prices up by an average of 11.5%. Critically, these effects spill over into other key commodity markets, with an impact roughly 50% larger than under normal market conditions. According to the report, a 10% oil price increase triggered by a geopolitical supply shock leads to natural gas price increases peaking at about 7% and fertilizer price increases peaking at over 5%. These peaks typically occur about a year after the initial oil price shock, with adverse consequences for food security and poverty reduction.
 
 
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European Card Payment Cooperation (ECPC), nexo standards and Berlin Group to work with ECB to implement digital euro
Standards to allow European payment solutions to minimise costs, expand geographical reach and diversify use cases
Adoption of the digital euro regulation by co-legislators to unlock potential and provide certainty for market actors’ future investments in payments

The European Central Bank (ECB) has signed agreements with three European standard‑setting organisations – ECPC, nexo standards and the Berlin Group – to reuse these existing open technical standards, accessible to all stakeholders, for processing digital euro online payments.
The standards include:

CPACE standards, developed by ECPC, support contactless “tap‑to‑pay” payments using near‑field communication between a payment device and a payment terminal;
nexo standards specifications connect merchants’ systems with the back-end systems of payment service providers and acquirers. They are used, for example, to support payment acceptance and cash-machine transactions;
Berlin Group standards allow payments to be made using an alias (such as a mobile phone number) and support balance checks and reconciliation across mobile devices and payment acceptance in areas like digital euro transactions initiated in merchant apps on smartphones.

By leveraging these open standards and working closely with the respective standardisation bodies, the ECB minimises adoption costs for the market and encourages early coordination among all involved players, including payment service providers and standardisation entities.
Free access, cost minimisation and coordination are particularly important as Europe currently lacks a universally available open standard supported across payment terminals and depends heavily on proprietary standards owned by international card schemes and global digital wallets. Using widely adopted European standards will simplify digital euro acceptance and create a uniform user experience across the euro area, while enabling European payment schemes to expand geographically and diversify use cases. With this approach, for instance, a national card scheme could expand its operations to point-of-sale (POS) environments outside its home market without requiring technical POS terminal upgrades.
The benefits of the digital euro standard will materialise ahead of digital euro issuance. Once EU co-legislators adopt the digital euro Regulation, providing certainty that the standards will apply across the euro area given the digital euro’s legal tender status, European payment solutions providers would be able to scale up beyond national borders. Adoption of the Regulation will provide market actors with certainty for their future investments and reduce Europe’s current dependencies in the area of payments.
“This partnership shows our strong commitment to making sure the digital euro works with existing European standards that the private sector can also use,” said ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone, who chairs the High-Level Task Force on a digital euro. “The open digital euro standards will provide a European free alternative to current proprietary standards, make it easier for new European providers to enter the market and give European payment service providers and merchants the certainty they need to invest, innovate and compete across the euro area.”
Ana Grade, CEO of ECPC, stated: “ECPC is very pleased with this bilateral agreement with the ECB on the use of the CPACE standard for the digital euro project, which will further enhance the standard’s visibility and market presence.”
Jean-Philippe Joliveau, Chairman of the Board of nexo standards, added: “We are very proud to collaborate with the ECB on the digital euro project. This cooperation confirms the position of nexo standards as an international and collaborative standardisation body for payment acceptance, supporting interoperability across the payments ecosystem.”
Markus Schierack, Managing Director of SRC, commented: “We welcome the ECB’s decision to engage with the Berlin Group. Open standards are the foundation of a competitive and interoperable European payments market. The ECB’s participation in our standards process is a positive step for the broader ecosystem.”
The standards were selected together with market participants represented in the Rulebook Development Group and fulfil the goals of the Eurosystem payments strategy. Additional standards could follow in the future, subject to approval by the ECB’s Governing Council.
Notes
Payment standards are the technical foundation for insuring unified communication between payment service providers (PSPs) and payment infrastructures. They ensure that participants can exchange and execute transactions using the same “technical language”. Common standards reduce complexity, streamline processes and lower integration and operating costs for consumers, merchants, PSPs and financial institutions. They also provide a shared framework that supports innovation, competition and market integration
About ECPC:
ECPC is a cooperative company, founded in 2020 by six European firms (from France, Germany, Belgium, Bulgaria, Spain and Portugal) that manage payment solutions. ECPC aims to create, maintain and develop a European independent standard for contactless payments, CPACE, from conception to certification, which interested parties may use free of charge. The standard’s market acceptance and footprint are very positive in Europe and beyond, with major vendors implementing and certifying CPACE-compatible products, both on the payment side (card/wallets) and on the payee side (terminals/mobile devices).
About nexo standards:
nexo standards is an international non-profit association headquartered in Brussels, Belgium. As a community of leading payment experts, its mission is to define, publish and promote global payment acceptance standards and supporting services that ensure interoperability between acceptance and acquiring solutions, integrated retail and terminal management systems.
About the Berlin Group:
The Berlin Group is a pan-European payments interoperability standards and harmonisation initiative that has the primary objective of defining open and common standards in the interbank domain. The Berlin Group is widely recognised for its API framework standards that support PSD2-compliant open banking and open finance. Its standards have been implemented by approximately 80% of the European market, as well as elsewhere. The Berlin Group is not a formal legal entity; SRC Security Research and Consulting GmbH acts as its Secretariat and Editorial Lead.
 
 
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Today marks the 10th anniversary of the GDPR’s adoption, the first comprehensive data protection framework spanning an entire continent, establishing clear rights for individuals and obligations for organisations across Europe.
The moment that led to the creation of the EDPB
The GDPR led to the establishment of the European Data Protection Board (EDPB) on 25 May 2018, replacing the Article 29 Working Party that was previously in charge of dealing with issues relating to the protection of personal data.
The GDPR gave the Data Protection Authorities (DPAs) stronger enforcement powers and expanded the scope of their work from focusing mainly on national compliance complaints to routinely dealing with cross-border cases.
In the past 10 years, the 31 European DPAs comprising the EDPB have worked together to ensure the consistent enforcement of the GDPR and a harmonised data protection approach across Europe.
A key role in an evolving digital landscape
Today, the GDPR is part of a broader and evolving European digital framework, alongside other digital laws such as the Digital Services Act, the Digital Markets Act, and the AI Act. In a world shaped by artificial intelligence, platform economies, and increasing data-driven innovation, the GDPR ensures that technological progress goes hand in hand with the protection of individuals’ fundamental rights.
An inspiration for the rest of the world
The impact of the GDPR has extended far beyond Europe’s borders, inspiring similar frameworks across the globe and contributing to a growing international recognition of privacy as a fundamental right.  
How the GDPR has shaped the data protection landscape: insights from Data Protection Authorities
Have you ever wondered what the data protection landscape looked like before the GDPR and how DPAs prepared for its entry into force? How has life for Europeans changed since its adoption? Watch the video for insights and testimonies from Data Protection Authorities which contributed to the shaping of the data protection landscape in Europe.
Click here to learn more about the GDPR.
 
 
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The Presidents of the European Parliament, Council and Commission signed a Joint Declaration committing to achieve the “One Europe, One Market” roadmap.
On the sidelines of the Informal meeting of Heads of State or Government in Cyprus, the President of the Republic of Cyprus as the rotating Presidency of the Council of the European Union, and the Presidents of the European Parliament and the European Commission, signed the “One Europe, One Market Roadmap”. This agreement demonstrates the resolve of the three institutions to move forward together on a clear path.
Against the backdrop of sustained geopolitical and economic volatility, this Roadmap represents a decisive step to urgently strengthen Europe’s competitiveness, with concrete actions and targets for agreements, at the latest by end 2027.
A commitment to delivery
The Roadmap is both a political and operational commitment.
It includes:

Targets for legislative proposals and agreement by the co-legislators
Quarterly review to monitor progress
Clear institutional responsibilities for all EU institutions in line with their prerogatives
Regular stock taking for full transparency

Building on the existing monitoring process, the institutions will ensure regular stocktaking to oversee and guide the implementation of this Roadmap.
Roberta Metsola, President of the European Parliament said: “This Roadmap reflects what the European Parliament has been calling for: a stronger, more competitive and resilient Europe. It is ambitious, it strengthens our capacity to withstand shocks, and it provides predictability to our citizens and businesses. We said we would take bold decisions and we are doing it. This is Europe responding to what it needs.”
Nikos Christodoulides, President of the Republic of Cyprus as the Rotating Presidency of the Council of the European Union said: “This Roadmap marks a turning point in advancing Europe’s competitiveness agenda. Moving forward with its implementation is not merely a regulatory exercise. It is a strategic necessity to reinforce Europe’s competitiveness, resilience, and long-term prosperity, within the framework of a truly integrated Single Market and a stronger, more cohesive European Union.”
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission said: “These actions will boost Europe’s economic growth, guarantee our digital transformation, and strengthen industrial resilience. This is an absolute priority of this Commission and with this Roadmap, we have the way forward.”
 
 
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Why is the European Commission putting forward Accelerate EU? 
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is heavily impacting global energy markets, with a knock-on effect on the economy, industry and households.  Since the beginning of the conflict in the Middle East, the EU has spent an additional €24 billion on energy imports, mainly fossil fuels. Even if hostilities ceased immediately, disruptions to energy supplies from the Gulf will persist for the foreseeable future.  Member States using more renewable and/or nuclear energy, and with more flexible grid systems with sufficient capacity and storage, are generally less impacted by the current energy crisis and sharp price fluctuations. The AccelerateEU Communication therefore underlines the importance of accelerating the transition to homegrown clean energy sources. In this context, the Communication focuses on five sets of measures with both short-term and long-term effects:

Greater EU coordination: The Commission will facilitate coordination in areas such as gas storage filling, oil stock releases, adoption of national emergency measures and ensuring the availability of jet fuel and diesel.
Protecting consumers and industry from price shocks: The Commission will assist Member States in the design of targeted, timely and temporary measures to address the crisis, including a temporary State aid framework to support the most exposed economic sectors.
Accelerating the shift to homegrown clean energy and electrification: The Commission will publish an Electrification Action Plan and set an electrification target, alongside other initiatives to increase the uptake of geothermal, biomethane and hydrogen.
Stepping up our energy system: the Commission calls on Member States to accelerate the negotiation of the European Grids Package for a swift adoption before summer 2026 and will adopt a legal proposal on network charges and taxation
Boosting investment:By mobilising both public and private financing for the transition to clean energy.

 
What is the Commission proposing to protect households and industry from the effects of the crisis?
Household budgets are increasingly tight as high energy costs, including household bills, are reducing disposable income. The Communication presents measures that Member States can take to protect consumers and industry from sudden high price hikes, thereby limiting the subsequent socio-economic impact.
EU rules and initiatives, including the Citizens Energy Package, already set out actions Member States can take to give consumers immediate relief. They include income support, energy vouchers (including for replacing boilers), social tariffs, reducing excise duties on electricity, and VAT reductions for heat pumps, solar PV panels and related small-scale batteries, and tax incentives for e-vehicles.
The Communication also underlines the need to make it easier for individuals to join energy communities, for households to produce more energy themselves and for consumers to be able to compare and switch energy suppliers. To help the most vulnerable, EU rules already enable Member States to bring in a temporary, or full, ban on disconnecting households from energy grids following payment issues. As the cheapest energy is the energy we do not use, the Communication also focuses on energy savings and energy efficiency.
The Commission will also increase the financial support available to industry for their clean energy transition through the Industrial Decarbonisation Bank, mobilising €100 billion of funding, including an Investment Booster financed by 400 million EU ETS allowances aiming to enhance investment certainty to step up decarbonisation investment by EU energy-intensive industries.
 
What is the Commission presenting for the transport sector?
Measures to ensure that the EU’s transport sector remains competitive and resilient are also included. To ensure sufficient availability of transport fuels and preserve the effective functioning of the single market, the Commission will step up European coordination on the   optimisation of fuel distribution across Member States. The Commission will establish a Fuel Observatory, tracking EU production, imports, exports and stock levels of transport fuels. This will enable swift identification of potential shortages and inform targeted measures to maintain a balanced fuel distribution across all regions and airports.
To mitigate the impact of possible fuel shortages on the EU aviation sector, the Commission will provide clarity on existing flexibilities within the EU aviation framework to address the consequences of flight cancellations and other disruptions. The Commission is also committed to further driving the uptake of EU-produced sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and sustainable maritime fuels (SMF). 
More immediate support may be needed due to the pressure on fossil fuel imports and volatile energy prices. Such support should be targeted, timely and temporary and they should be tied to longer-term solutions.
 
What is the role of the Commission to ease the immediate pressure of fossil fuel imports and support long-term stability?
The Commission is working intensively with Member States, regulators and industry to gather timely information necessary for an effective, coordinated, EU-wide response. Coordination Groups on oil and gas now take place on a weekly basis. Chaired by the Commission, the two fora are well-placed for exchanges of information, for instance, on stocks, refining capacity and alternative import routes, across the EU.
The Commission is collecting national data on available oil stocks and market conditions to provide an EU-wide regional assessment of the situation, as mandated by Energy Ministers at the extraordinary Transport Telecommunications and Energy Council of 31 March. Looking ahead, AccelerateEU foresees closer, and more immediate, coordination of:

Filling of gas storage facilities by Member States and using the flexibility in filling rules.
Oil stock releases to ensure stocks effectively meet EU demand and that Member States’ emergency measures don’t negatively impact the Single Market.
National emergency measures and ensuring the availability of jet fuel and diesel, including oil refinery production capacities, across the EU.

 
What is the EU doing to protect vulnerable consumers?
High energy prices hit the most vulnerable the hardest. The Citizens Energy Package prioritises energy costs and consumers’ access to energy. It places a strong focus on protecting vulnerable and energy-poor households, with safeguards against disconnections and structural reforms to tackle the root causes of high energy costs.
Electricity taxes and levies make up about 25% of household bills, and the Commission works closely with Member States in reducing them.
In implementing the Citizens Energy Package, the Commission is publishing Recommendations as guidance to further empower and protect consumers, from disconnections for example, and to improve transparency. The aim is to make it easier for consumers to switch to cheaper, more sustainable, contracts that are best suited to them.  More flexible contracts can lower costs and reduce exposure to price volatility, especially when combined with energy efficient improvements or pooling energy in energy communities.
EU funds have an important role to play in advancing the clean energy transition. Member States can already use Cohesion Funds for decarbonisation, energy efficiency, and other clean energy projects. Support is also available from EU sources such as the Social Climate Fund to support vulnerable households. In parallel, the Commission looking into additional support for Member States, not least by making maximum use of the current EU budget.
 
What is the EU doing to protect the industry?
The measures proposed in Accelerate EU aim at bringing immediate relief to both consumers and industry and to have lasting benefits. For instance, the Commission encourages Member States to explore the use of revenues from the ETS for targeted measures that accelerate investments in electrification (e.g. in transport or electrification of heating), industrial decarbonisation and to investments that help reduce electricity prices including through increased renewable electricity capacity. The Commission will also give Member States more space to develop and implement targeted temporary emergency measures to support the most exposed sectors by adopting a State aid temporary framework.
 
What measures is the EU taking to promote electrification and increase the use of homegrown clean energy sources? 
The EU is taking a number of measures in different areas. For instance:

Grids Package: Grids are needed to let power flow at the lowest price from where it is produced to where it is consumed. Investing in the EU grid infrastructure is a crucial step towards further electrification and the increase of homegrown clean energy sources. Grids are the backbone of Europe’s energy system and a prerequisite for a well-functioning, integrated electricity system that delivers clean, reliable, affordable electricity to industry and households. The European Grids Package, proposed by the Commission in December 2025, addresses structural issues by introducing more effective cross-border and cross-sectoral energy infrastructure planning through better coordination at EU level. It also strives to upgrade and digitalise existing infrastructure and to ensure it is used in the most efficient way. The Commission proposal also aims at streamlining permit-granting procedures for both grids, renewable energy and flexibility assets to speed up implementation of projects. The Commission calls on and will support the co-legislators to conclude negotiations on the grids package before the summer
Electrification target: Amongst others, the Commission will set an electrification target and publish an electrification action plan to accelerate the electrification needed to complete the shift to an energy system based on clean and homegrown energy and move away from our dangerous dependency on fossil fuels.

 
How will public and private investments boost resilience to future energy crises? 
It is vital to speed up investment in the clean energy transition now, not least to break EU dependence on fossil fuels and make the EU resilient to future energy crises. Member States that have already invested in the clean energy transition are reaping the benefits, with electricity prices generally below the EU average.
The EU already provides significant funding, including €219 billion under the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF).
Member States can already use Cohesion Funds for decarbonisation and energy efficiency, as well as instruments like the Social Climate Fund to support vulnerable households. The Commission will work with Member States to maximise the use of available EU funding and reallocate EU funds where feasible and in line with Member States’ preferences to energy-related investments, including by expanding measures to reduce energy demand and accelerated the deployment of clean technologies such as heat pumps, solar, wind and batteries.
Public funding alone will not be sufficient. To mobilise private capital, the Commission adopted a Clean Energy Investment Strategy in March 2026 and will convene a Clean Energy Investment Summit bringing together the financial services industry, institutional investors, including insurers and pension funds, project developers and public financiers to scale up financing for high-impact solutions such as batteries, charging infrastructure and electrification.
 
 
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Blog | Artificial intelligence (AI) can help track inflation risks in real time. A new ECB model based on machine learning informs experts how likely it is that inflation will be much higher or much lower than they expect.
In times of growing economic and political uncertainty, prices can change more rapidly and more strongly. This is why monetary policy decisions rely not only on the most likely path for inflation, which economists like to call the “baseline”, but also on an assessment of the risks surrounding it.[1] In other words, how likely it is that inflation will turn out to be higher or lower than the baseline. Estimating this has become much more complicated in a world of growing uncertainty. This blog post shows how the ECB is applying new AI-based tools to cope with this increased complexity.
The Eurosystem (the ECB and the national central banks of the euro area countries) utilises a comprehensive toolkit to analyse the risks surrounding inflation forecasts.[2] For example, market-based sensitivity analysis focuses on how surprise developments in key economic variables, such as oil prices, would affect the euro area economy. In addition, model-based analysis examines how a wide range of potential developments could shape the entire distribution of future macroeconomic outcomes. This offers a broader perspective than the sensitivity analysis. However, the standard economic models used in this context are typically based on only a handful of economic indicators. They may also rely on restrictive assumptions.[3]
The machine learning model described in this blog post comes with two major advantages for the risk analysis.[4] First, it is able to handle a greater number of economic indicators. Second, machine learning models are able to capture very general and complex data patterns. This allows it to detect and cope with non-linearities, which more traditional economic models often exclude.[5],[6]
Machine learning to assess inflation risk
The machine learning tool we use to assess the risks surrounding future inflation is based on a quantile regression forest (QRF) model.[7] It serves a dual purpose. First, it produces inflation forecasts. Second, it provides a comprehensive assessment of the risks surrounding a given baseline outlook, drawing on a large set of economic variables that are routinely monitored by Eurosystem inflation experts.[8] The model produces outputs based on the historical experience on which it has been trained and the most recent data available on key inflation determinants, such as wage developments and selling price expectations.
The ECB has already used the QRF model to help produce the short-term inflation forecast and the risk assessment around the baseline. Since the end of 2022, the model has become part of the broader analytical toolkit used for monetary policy preparation.[9]
Importantly, the potential of the QRF model extends beyond forecasting, and it can help identify which factors drive inflation risks over time.[10] In 2025, for example, wages and selling price expectations were the key forces behind revisions to our projections for core inflation (HICPX).[11]
Risk signals in real time
In recent years, the insights from the QRF model have been especially relevant. In particular, the model was useful in detecting – in real time – emerging inflation risks across different components of our main inflation measure (HICP). This made a tangible difference, because the volatile environment after the pandemic made it much harder to interpret the potentially conflicting messages emerging from the large number of indicators that we traditionally monitor for our analysis. Traditional economic models struggled with these conflicting messages, but QRF helped us to make sense of them.[12]
In the following, we focus on the performance of the QRF model in the course of 2025, comparing it to the ECB/Eurosystem projections produced around the same time.[13] The shaded area in Chart 1 captures the QRF density forecasts prepared on selected dates around each ECB Governing Council meeting held during the sample period. This shows the range in which HICPX inflation is likely to fall according to the model. For example, the QRF forecasts for the first quarter of 2025 were produced on 17 October 2024 and updated on 29 November 2024 and 28 January 2025 as more information became available. The ECB/Eurosystem projections for HICPX inflation for each quarter of 2025 are shown by the dashed red line. For all quarters displayed, the projections are prepared using the information available on the mid-date of the range reported on the x-axis. Finally, the actual outcome, which is generally released soon after the end of the reference quarter, is shown by the solid black line.

Chart 1
Core inflation projections in 2025

(percentages)

Source: ECB staff calculations.
Notes: The chart compares ECB/Eurosystem projections with selected vintages of QRF density forecasts for core inflation around relevant Governing Council meetings. The QRF model is based on Lenza et al. (2025). The shaded areas represent the 16th and 84th percentiles of the QRF forecasts, the dotted line represents the mean forecast.

How big risks around the ECB/Eurosystem baseline inflation projections are can be derived from how far the QRF analysis deviates from the ECB/Eurosystem projections. For example, if the ECB/Eurosystem projection falls in the lower part of the shaded area, or even outside its lower range, the projection carries an “upside risk”, i.e. the QRF analysis identifies a considerable likelihood that the final outcome for inflation will be higher than predicted. Comparing the QRF-based risk signals with how actual inflation subsequently turned out suggests that these signals were informative. For example, for the second and fourth quarters of 2025, the QRF range lies mostly or entirely above the ECB/Eurosystem projections and inflation was indeed 20 basis points above the projections. Hence, the upside risks identified by the model did materialise. At the same time, when the projections were closer to the mid-point of the range (indicating that no meaningful risks were detected by the model), the projections turned out to be more in line with the final outcomes. The shaded area of the QRF model area shrinks in the course of each quarter while, at the same time, still generally encompassing the final outcome. This shows that the QRF predictions become more precise as new information becomes available over the course of the quarter.
Implications for economic and inflation analysis and the road ahead
The examples above show that the QRF model is a helpful tool to navigate uncertain macroeconomic conditions. The ECB’s experience in developing and exploiting this model points the way for future uses. First, machine learning tools can complement traditional models by providing timely information about risks, including their magnitude, orientation and determinants. Second, these new tools are valuable not only for their forecasting accuracy but also for their ability to reveal complex data patterns, such as non-linearities and sector-specific dynamics, that have become increasingly relevant for monetary policy in recent years.
The QRF framework also allows growing data volumes to be handled more efficiently. This makes it possible to assess economically interpretable risk in real time, which in turn allows changes in the baseline or the associated risks to be detected swiftly. The QRF analysis provides explanations of how key variables of interest, such as inflation or output, evolve based on the evolution of their core determinants (e.g. wages, import costs or expectations). Hence, we believe these new tools will play a growing role in forecasting, monitoring economic and inflation trends, and informing monetary policy decisions.
The views expressed in each blog entry are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the European Central Bank and the Eurosystem.
 
 
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