Today, the EU and US signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on a strategic partnership on critical minerals and agreed an EU-US Critical Minerals Action Plan. These initiatives reflect the EU’s commitment to deepen cooperation on critical raw materials. This is a key step in enhancing resilience and diversification of supply chains, amid shared geopolitical and economic challenges.
Signed today by Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Maros Šefčovič and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington DC, the MoU formalises the EU-US strategic partnership to build secure, sustainable critical minerals supply chains. It foresees bilateral cooperation across the full value chain – spanning exploration, extraction, processing, refining, recycling and recovery, while supporting innovation, investment and geological mapping as well as supply- and demand-side measures.
Additionally, Commissioner Šefčovič and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer set out an Action Plan for Critical Minerals Supply Chain Resilience, which paves the way towards a possible plurilateral trade initiative with global partners.
Under the Action Plan, the EU and the US intend to work together to explore a broad range of trade policies and instruments to reinforce coordinated international action. These may include border-adjusted price floors, standards-based markets, price gap subsidies and offtake agreements. In addition, cooperation is expected to focus on the development of common standards for mining, processing and recycling; the promotion of investment; joint research and innovation; stockpiling strategies; and mechanisms for rapid response to supply disruptions.
Both sides plan to continue working on critical minerals resilience in relevant international fora, including the G7 and the Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement (FORGE).
Both, the MoU and the Action Plan follow up on shared commitments decided on at the Critical Minerals Ministerial meeting held in Washington DC on 4 February 2026, alongside Japan. Closer cooperation in the area of critical minerals is foreseen in the Joint Statement of 21 August 2025 between the EU and the US.
 
“Secure and sustainable access to critical minerals is vital for the competitiveness and resilience of the EU economy. The MoU with the United States is the EU’s 16th bilateral instrument on critical raw materials. Together, these MoUs make a significant part of our strategy to reduce dependencies, foster innovation, and ensure that our supply chains are resilient against global disruptions. By working together with partners across the globe, we can shape fair and transparent markets that benefit our economies and industries. ” – Stéphane Séjourné, Executive Vice-President for Prosperity and Industrial Strategy
“It is encouraging to see EU-US cooperation on critical raw materials taking concrete shape. The vision is there – now the real test is execution, by turning shared ambitions into impactful projects. This will define our success. Critical minerals sit at the core of every future-facing industry – resilience is therefore inevitable and addressing vulnerabilities an imperative.” – Maroš Šefčovič, Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security; Interinstitutional Relations and Transparency
 
 
 
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Resilience, supervision, and international coordination are essential to safeguarding global financial markets as new AI tools enable attackers.
Artificial intelligence is transforming how the financial system copes with vulnerabilities and reacts to incidents. Yet it is also amplifying cyber threats that can undermine financial stability when the offensive capabilities of intruders outpace defenses.
IMF analysis suggests that extreme cyber‑incident losses could trigger funding strains, raise solvency concerns, and disrupt broader markets.
The financial system relies on shared digital infrastructure that’s highly interconnected, including software, cloud services, and networks for payments and other data. Advanced AI models can dramatically reduce the time and cost needed to identify and exploit vulnerabilities, raising the likelihood of simultaneously discovering and targeting weaknesses in widely used systems. As a result, cyber risk is increasingly about correlated failures that could disrupt financial intermediation, payments, and confidence at the systemic level.
Anthropic’s recent controlled release of its Claude Mythos Preview, an advanced AI model with exceptional cyber capabilities, underscored how quickly risks are increasing. Mythos could find and exploit vulnerabilities in every major operating system and web browser—even when used by non-experts. This foreshadows how fast‑moving, AI‑driven cyber risks could destabilize the financial system if not managed carefully, and why authorities must focus on building resilience through supervision and coordination—rather than treating these developments as purely technical or operational issues.
On the other hand, OpenAI’s specialized, restricted cyber version of GPT‑5.5 assumes vulnerabilities and attacks will grow, and emphasizes equipping defenders more quickly and at scale, under appropriate governance and trusted access models.
Advances change risk equation
Models such as Mythos illustrate the nature of the challenge because they amplify existing cyberattack techniques by operating at machine speed. Attackers have the advantage over defenders because discovering and exploiting vulnerabilities can occur faster than patching and remediation. In a financial system built on common software and shared service providers, this can create simultaneous vulnerabilities across many institutions.
For now, some mitigating factors remain. Advanced AI cyber capabilities are not yet widely available, and closed, industry‑specific financial software is harder to target than open‑source infrastructure. But these buffers are likely to erode quickly as model training expands, capabilities diffuse, and leaks occur. Temporary containment is unlikely to substitute for durable defenses.
Financial stability implications
The new AI‑enabled cyber tools focus the discussion on financial stability:

Risks are systemic. Attacks become more dangerous when discovery and exploitation scale rapidly, with implications for financial stability.
Risks cut across sectors. The financial sector shares digital foundations with energy, telecommunications, and public services. That means AI‑assisted attacks can propagate across sectors that rely on the same infrastructure.
AI may further concentrate risk and failures with one vulnerability rippling across many institutions. Reliance on a small number of software platforms, cloud providers, or AI models increases the impact of any single exploited weakness.

These features elevate cyber risk to a potential macro‑financial shock. Confidence effects, payment disruptions, liquidity strains, and fire‑sale dynamics could follow if multiple institutions are affected simultaneously. For financial authorities, the question is whether the system is prepared to absorb cyber incidents without destabilizing core financial functions.
AI in cyber defense
AI is also a critical part of the solution. When attackers operate at machine speed, defenders must do the same. Financial institutions increasingly use AI‑supported tools to detect threats, prevent fraud, identify vulnerabilities, and respond to incidents.
AI also can help reduce vulnerabilities at the development stage rather than patching them after release. For widely used financial infrastructure, these gains can meaningfully reduce systemic exposure. But these benefits will materialize only if institutions invest in integration, governance, and human oversight—areas that supervisors increasingly need to assess. This also includes business continuity and disaster recovery, cyber and quality assurance programs, and good cyber hygiene practices.
Resilience-first policy framework
AI-driven cyber risk demands a policy response that treats cybersecurity as a core financial stability issue. Existing measures remain relevant, but they must be expanded and sharpened for a world of faster, automated, and increasingly sophisticated attacks. Policymakers should prioritize robust resilience standards, supervision focused on systemic transmission channels, and close public-private collaboration on threat intelligence and incident response.
Defenses will inevitably be breached, so resilience must also be a priority, specifically to limit how far incidents spread and ensure rapid recovery. Controls to stop the spread of attacks can prevent local breaches from escalating into system‑wide disruptions. These measures are often costly and complex, but they are among the most effective tools for containing AI‑enabled attacks.
From a supervisory perspective, this underscores the need to focus not only on prevention, but on response, recovery, and continuity of critical functions. Cyber stress testing, scenario analysis, and board‑level oversight of cyber risk are becoming indispensable components of financial stability frameworks.
International cooperation is vital
The Mythos episode also highlights governance challenges. Cyber risk does not respect borders. As AI capabilities spread across countries, inconsistent oversight could weaken a globally interconnected system.
Emerging and developing economies, which often have more severe resource constraints, may be disproportionately exposed to attackers targeting regions with weaker defenses. That’s why stronger international coordination, more information sharing, and expanded capacity development are critical to preserving global financial stability.
As AI reshapes the cyber landscape, the central question for authorities is whether the financial system can continue to function under severe stress. Answering that question requires putting systemic risk—and the tools to manage it—at the center of the AI‑cyber conversation.
 
 
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The Council today provisionally agreed new rules to strengthen the fight against value added tax (VAT) fraud in the EU by ramping up cooperation between member states, the European public prosecutor’s office (EPPO) and the European anti-fraud office (OLAF).
The new framework will give EPPO and OLAF more direct access to key VAT data on cross-border business transactions in the EU, including information held by Eurofisc – the EU’s anti-VAT fraud network.
” We have taken massive strides in tackling VAT fraud over recent years. But our budgets still lose out to the tune of billions of euros every year and authorities need the right tools to tackle these criminal activities more quickly. Today’s agreement will give EU investigative bodies the targeted information they need to pursue criminals swiftly and to protect national and EU revenues that benefit us all.”- Makis Keravnos, Minister of Finance of the Republic of Cyprus
Cross-border VAT fraud, in particular missing trader intra-community fraud (commonly known as carousel fraud), is a serious problem in the EU. According to the European Commission, this criminal activity costs member state treasuries and the EU budget between €12.5 billion and €32.8 billion annually and is carried out mostly by organised crime groups.
In practice, the new framework means that EPPO and OLAF will have the first-hand information they need to launch and support investigations under their competences into suspected cross-border VAT fraud. This will improve coordination between the various actors, speed up investigations, and strengthen the EU’s overall capacity to detect and combat VAT fraud affecting the Union’s financial interests. At the same time, it will help put the EU’s legitimate businesses on a more level playing-field.
Background
The new rules take the form of a regulation amending Council regulation 904/2010 on administrative cooperation and combating VAT fraud. The measure follows the agreement in March last year to make VAT reporting obligations for companies who sell goods and services to businesses in another EU member state fully digital by 2030 which should further support the fight against VAT fraud.
Next steps
Once the European Parliament has adopted its opinion on the file – currently expected in July 2026 – the Council will proceed to formally adopt the new rules. The regulation will enter into force twenty days after its publication in the official journal of the EU.
 
 
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The energy price index rose 12.1% in April, driven largely by crude oil (+8.7%). The non-energy price index increased 3.2%.
Agricultural prices gained 1.5% in April, led by food prices (+1.5%); raw materials rose 2.5%, while beverage prices edged up 0.4%. Fertilizer prices surged 14%
Metals edged up 1.4% in April, led by aluminum (+6.7%), zinc (+5.7%), and nickel (+5.2%). Precious metals fell 2.7%, weighed down by a decline in gold (-2.8%).
The Pink Sheet is the World Bank’s monthly report on commodity price movements.

The energy price index rose 12.1% in April, driven largely by crude oil (+8.7%). The non-energy price index increased 3.2%.
Agricultural prices gained 1.5% in April, led by food prices (+1.5%); raw materials rose 2.5%, while beverage prices edged up 0.4%. Fertilizer prices surged 14%
Metals edged up 1.4% in April, led by aluminum (+6.7%), zinc (+5.7%), and nickel (+5.2%). Precious metals fell 2.7%, weighed down by a decline in gold (-2.8%).
The Pink Sheet is the World Bank’s monthly report on commodity price movements.

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The Digital Markets Act (DMA) is a key instrument to improve market openness and fairness, competition, and user choice in the EU

New challenges posed by generative AI and cloud services need to be addressed

External pressure must not compromise the EU’s sovereignty and autonomy to define its rules

Effective and proportionate fines essential to ensure deterrence and safeguarding DMA’s effectiveness

MEPs are pushing for the Commission’s timely and effective enforcement of the EU’s Digital Markets Act and closer scrutiny of AI-driven search tools and cloud services.
In a resolution adopted on Thursday by show of hands, Parliament urges the Commission to quickly and consistently enforce the EU’s Digital Markets Act (DMA) and to make full use of its enforcement powers. MEPs point to the growing strategic importance of cloud computing services and the increasing uptake of AI-driven search tools (such as Google’s AI overview), stressing the need for closer scrutiny under the DMA framework.
EU’s sovereignty must not be compromised
MEPs warn against political pressure from third countries seeking to weaken the DMA and underline that such interference should not compromise the EU’s sovereignty and autonomy to enforce its own rules. The Commission should make full use of the DMA’s enforcement instruments (including regulatory dialogue, investigations, non-compliance proceedings, and fines) to prevent gatekeepers, regardless of their place of establishment, from bypassing the law.
Ongoing non-compliance proceedings should be concluded without undue delay, MEPs say. They also regret the modest fines imposed on Meta and Apple and stress that effective and proportionate fines are essential to ensure deterrence.
Gatekeeper action
With gatekeepers having to comply with the DMA since 2024, smaller players continue to face discriminatory practices and gatekeeper-imposed restrictions, slowing innovation and reducing consumer choice. Concerns remain around Google’s persistent self-preferencing practices, TikTok’s consent screens using behavioural techniques to obtain consent, the change of default settings and easily accessing competing services by Microsoft , and the continued use of prohibited parity clauses by Booking.com. MEPs are also worried about restricted access to audiovisual media services on connected TVs and call on the Commission to monitor this segment of the market, to avoid replicating unfair practices such as those by Android on smartphones.
Real-world results
Parliament urges the Commission to prioritise the enforcement of interoperability, data access, anti-steering and anti-self-preferencing obligations, while taking into account relevant market developments. The text says compliance with the DMA should be assessed in relation to practical, real-world outcomes on market openness, competition and user choice, while its effectiveness depends on empowered end-users.
Background
In November 2025, the Commission launched investigations into Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure to determine if they should be designated as gatekeepers for their cloud computing services. In April 2025, it issued its first non-compliance decisions and fines against Meta regarding its “pay or consent” advertising model and Apple for breaching its anti-steering obligations. On 28 April 2026, the Commission published the first review of the DMA, assessing the DMA’s impact and identifying areas of future focus, such as cloud services and AI.
 
 
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On 1 May, the EU-Mercosur Interim Trade Agreement (ITA) will start being provisionally applied. This will allow EU producers, exporters, and farmers to start reaping the benefits of this deal as of day one. 
The provisional application of the ITA will create new opportunities, supporting the exports of industrial goods, services, and agri-food products to Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. It will immediately remove or drastically reduce tariffs on key exports such as cars, pharmaceuticals, and foresee a first tariff cut for most agri-food products such as wine, spirits and olive oil, immediately creating new export opportunities for EU farmers.
Benefits for exporters of goods and services
Exporters of goods will benefit from immediate tariff relief as of 1 May, when the first tariff cuts start applying.
Moreover, EU companies can start bidding for public and government contracts in Mercosur on an equal footing with local companies. The deal removes most preferences given to domestic firms in government contracts both at federal and state level, making the tendering for contracts procedures simpler and more transparent.
Services exporters will immediately benefit from new opportunities as well, thanks to the implementation of clear licensing rules, non-discriminatory procedures, and movement of workers.
1 May also marks the start of eliminating non-tariff barriers and technical barriers to trade, with rules on conformity assessment, rules on labelling and respect of international standards being applied. This will ensure that EU companies can operate in an easier and faster manner, delivering immediate commercial benefits.
Benefits for farmers and agri-food exporters
The provisional application of the deal creates a better and more competitive environment for EU agri-food producers to export their products to the four countries of Mercosur.
The EU is the world’s biggest exporter of food and drink products, and our high-quality products are renowned across the globe. The agreement is expected to lead to a 50% increase in EU agri-food exports to the Mercosur region. As of 1 May, the EU will have access to the first part of tariff rate quota volumes, while a first tariff cut for most agri-food products will create new export opportunities for EU farmers immediately.
Last but not least, Mercosur countries will start protecting 344 EU Geographical Indications (GIs) as of 1 May, banning imitations as well as misleading terms, symbols, flags or images. Only genuine products, such as, for example, Roquefort cheese made in Roquefort, France, will carry the GI name.
The agreement also provides an unprecedented set of measures to protect sensitive agri-food sectors and ensure level-playing field and reciprocity, including carefully calibrated tariff rate quotas, a robust safeguard mechanism, and enhanced controls.
Background 
Provisional application follows the European Council decision in January to empower the Commission to provisionally apply the agreement as from the first ratification by one Mercosur country. On 27 February, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the EU would proceed with provisional application. Provisional application allows the EU to immediately benefit from this deal, while ensuring democratic process and sensitivities are fully respected.
 
 
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Several key minerals that are essential inputs for digital and renewable energy technologies face high exposure to export restrictions, and the number of restrictions continues to rise, a new OECD report finds.
The annual update of the OECD Inventory of Export Restrictions on Critical Raw Materials tracks export restrictions and supports analysis of their impact on availability, prices and global supply chains. The OECD continues to monitor these measures over time. The latest edition, which analyses measures implemented through the end of 2024, shows that export restrictions on critical raw materials have increased steadily in the past 15 years, reaching an all-time high. Although the growth rate of new export restrictions slowed from 3.4% in 2023 to 0.6% in 2024, a wider range of countries, particularly in Africa and Asia, introduced new restrictions.
Some minerals essential for energy systems, such as cobalt, manganese, graphite and rare-earth elements, saw particularly high exposure to export restrictions. Roughly 70% of global exports of cobalt and manganese were subject to at least one export restriction between 2022 and 2024. 16% of trade in critical raw materials monitored by the OECD faced at least one export restriction over the same period.
“Countries around the world depend on reliable access to critical raw materials for economic growth, innovation and energy security,” OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said at the OECD Critical Minerals Forum in Istanbul. “Export restrictions can increase supply chain vulnerabilities in highly concentrated supply chains by limiting export volumes and driving up prices. Improving transparency on these measures is key to promoting more open and diversified markets for critical minerals, incentivising much needed investment to scale up production and promoting mutually beneficial partnerships with producer countries.”
Click here to see the chart.
While demand for critical raw materials is rising rapidly, supply remains slow to adjust and highly concentrated. Although the leading producers differ by material, the top three countries for each of cobalt, lithium and nickel account for over two-thirds of global production, rising to nearly 90% for rare earth elements. There is also concentration in the policy measures adopted, with India (19%), China (17%), Argentina (6%), Viet Nam (5%) and Burundi (4%) accounting for over half of all new measures implemented between 2009 and 2024.
Waste and scrap materials remain the most frequently restricted category of critical raw materials in 2024, reflecting both environmental concerns and growing interest in the circular economy as a source of metals and minerals. In addition, export restrictions on upstream supply chains, such as ores and minerals, grew sharply between 2009 and 2024, having increased tenfold during this period.
Highly restrictive measures, such as export prohibitions and quotas, have become increasingly prevalent, accounting for more than one-third of new measures in 2024. Revenue generation has been the fastest-growing stated rationale behind export restrictions since the early 2010s and became the most cited reason in 2024, accounting for nearly half of measures.
For more information on OECD work on export restrictions on critical raw materials, visit https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/sub-issues/export-restrictions-on-critical-raw-materials.html.
The OECD provides data, analysis and platforms for dialogue to build more resilient and well-functioning critical raw material supply chains, including to help unlock new critical mineral supply chain investment, support economic growth and development in producer and consumer countries, and protect mine workers’ human rights and the environment. For more information, visit: https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/policy-issues/critical-minerals.html.
 
 

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The European Commission today presented its plan to modernise EU lawmaking, ensuring that laws are clearer, simpler, more efficiently enforced, based on solid evidence and better aligned with the needs of citizens and businesses.
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, said: “Europe needs clear and coherent legislation that fully responds to the needs of our citizens and businesses. Today, we deliver our plan to make EU lawmaking more efficient, more effective, and more transparent. We will apply simplicity by design and continue to ensure every rule is supported by strong evidence. But that’s not all: we will also tackle gold-plating, speed up enforcement and clean up our current stock of legislation. This is a critical contribution to bolster our competitiveness.”
The Commission will act in five areas:

Simplicity by design: EU laws must be easy to understand, apply and enforce. The Commission aims to embed ‘simplicity by design’ into every proposal, ensuring clarity on who must act, how to comply, and the consequences of non-compliance.
Strengthening the better regulation framework: the better regulation system sets out the principles that the European Commission follows when preparing new initiatives. It is already among the most advanced in the world. It will be further improved to enhance transparency, stakeholder engagement and efficiency.
Regulatory deep cleaning: while the Union continues to pursue ambitious policies, it must also put its large stock of existing legislation in order. An Action Plan will tackle inconsistencies, overlapping and overly complex provisions in 12 priority areas.
Tackling regulatory gold-plating: the Commission will help Member States identify and tackle unnecessary complexity and barriers to the Single Market where they apply stricter or more extensive requirements than those set out in EU law.
Faster, robust enforcement: the Commission will strengthen enforcement of the Single Market rulebook in selected policy areas. A focus will also be placed on reducing the number of long-standing infringement cases.

At a time of profound global shifts, an efficient and effective regulatory framework is essential for European competitiveness. Simpler, better-designed, and easier-to-implement rules will therefore help to unlock economic potential and promote a more dynamic and integrated Single Market.
The European Parliament and the Council are essential partners in helping to make the objectives outlined in this Communication a reality. To that end, the Commission calls on the co-legislators to ensure that ‘simplicity by design’ and better regulation principles are applied consistently, by each Institution, during every legislative process.
Today’s Communication builds on President von der Leyen‘s Political Guidelines for 2024-2029, the commitments she made at the Leaders’ Retreat on 12 February 2026, and the Communication ‘A Simpler and Faster Europe‘.The post European Commission | Proposal of a Plan for Simpler, Clearer and Better Enforced EU Rules first appeared on European American Chamber of Commerce New York [EACCNY] | Your Partner for Transatlantic Business Resources.

Commodity prices forecast to rise by 16% this year, fueling inflation and slowing growth. 
Energy prices are projected to surge by 24% this year to their highest level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as the war in the Middle East sends a severe shock through global commodity markets, according to the World Bank Group’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook. Overall commodity prices are forecast to rise 16% in 2026, driven by soaring energy and fertilizer prices and record-high prices for several key metals.
The shock will have serious implications for job creation and development, the analysis indicates.
Attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 35% of global seaborne crude oil trade, have triggered the largest oil supply shock on record, with an initial reduction in global oil supply of about 10 million barrels per day. Even after moderating from their recent peak, Brent oil prices remained more than 50% higher in mid-April than they were at the start of the year. Brent oil is forecast to average $86 a barrel in 2026, up sharply from $69 a barrel in 2025. These forecasts assume that the most acute disruptions end in May and that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually returns to pre-war levels by late 2026.
“The war is hitting the global economy in cumulative waves: first through higher energy prices, then higher food prices, and finally, higher inflation, which will push up interest rates and make debt even more expensive,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics. “The poorest people, who spend the highest share of their income on food and fuels, will be hit the hardest, as will developing economies already struggling under heavy debt burdens. All of this is a reminder of a stark truth: war is development in reverse.”
Fertilizer prices are projected to increase by 31% in 2026, driven by a 60% jump in urea prices. Fertilizer affordability will fall to its worst level since 2022, eroding farmers’ incomes and threatening future crop yields. If the conflict proves more prolonged, these pressures on food supply and affordability could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity this year, according to the World Food Programme.
Prices for base metals, including aluminum, copper, and tin, are also expected to reach all-time highs, reflecting strong demand related to industries including data centers, electric vehicles, and renewable energy. Precious metals continue to break price and volatility records, with average prices forecast to increase 42% in 2026, as geopolitical uncertainty fuels demand for safe-haven assets.
Rising commodity prices caused by these shocks will increase inflation and dampen growth worldwide. In developing economies, inflation is now projected to average 5.1% in 2026 under the baseline assumptions—a full percentage point higher than was expected before the war and an increase from 4.7% last year. Growth in developing economies will also deteriorate as higher prices for essentials weigh on incomes and exports from the Middle East face sharp curbs. Developing economies are expected to grow by 3.6% in 2026, a downward revision of 0.4 percentage point since January. Economies directly impacted by conflict will be hardest hit, and 70% of commodity importers and more than 60% of commodity exporters worldwide could see weaker growth than was projected in January.
Commodity prices could rise even higher if hostilities escalate or supply disruptions from the war last longer than projected. Brent oil prices could average as high as $115 a barrel in 2026 in a scenario where critical oil and gas facilities suffer more damage and export volumes are slow to recover. This in turn would have ripple effects on prices for fertilizer and alternative energy sources such as biofuels. Under this scenario, inflation in developing economies could rise to 5.8% this year, a level exceeded only in 2022 over the past decade.
“The succession of shocks over the decade has sharply reduced the fiscal space available to respond to the current historic energy supply crisis,” said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group. “Governments must resist the temptation of broad, untargeted fiscal support measures that could distort markets and erode fiscal buffers. Instead, they should focus on rapid, temporary support targeted to the most vulnerable households.”
The report’s special focus finds that oil-price volatility during periods of rising geopolitical risk is roughly twice as high as during calmer periods, with a geopolitically driven 1% decline in oil production pushing prices up by an average of 11.5%. Critically, these effects spill over into other key commodity markets, with an impact roughly 50% larger than under normal market conditions. According to the report, a 10% oil price increase triggered by a geopolitical supply shock leads to natural gas price increases peaking at about 7% and fertilizer price increases peaking at over 5%. These peaks typically occur about a year after the initial oil price shock, with adverse consequences for food security and poverty reduction.
 
 
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