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New transport proposals target greater efficiency and more sustainable travel

To support the transition to cleaner, greener, and smarter mobility, in line with the objectives of the European Green Deal, the Commission today adopted four proposals that will modernise the EU’s transport system. By increasing connectivity and shifting more passengers and freight to rail and inland waterways, by supporting the roll-out of charging points, alternative refuelling infrastructure, and new digital technologies, by placing a stronger focus on sustainable urban mobility, and by making it easier to choose different transport options in an efficient multimodal transport system, the proposals will put the transport sector on track to cutting its emissions by 90%.
Executive Vice President for the European Green Deal, Frans Timmermans, said: “Europe’s green and digital transition will bring big changes to the ways we move around. Today’s proposals set European mobility on track for a sustainable future: faster European rail connections with easy-to-find tickets and improved passenger rights support for cities to increase and improve public transport and infrastructure for walking and cycling, and making the best possible use of solutions for smart and efficient driving.”
Transport Commissioner, Adina Vălean, said: “Today we are proposing higher standards along the TEN-T network, boosting high speed rail and embedding multimodality, and a new north-south Corridor in Eastern Europe. With our Intelligent Transport Systems Directive we are embracing digital technologies and data-sharing. We want to make travel in the EU more efficient – and safer – for drivers, passengers and businesses alike. The cities linked by EU infrastructure are our economic powerhouses, but they must also be lean cities – for inhabitants and commuters. That is why we are recommending a dedicated framework for sustainable urban mobility – to guide the faster transition to safe, accessible, inclusive, smart and zero-emission urban mobility.”
A smart and sustainable TEN-T
The TEN-T is an EU-wide network of rail, inland waterways, short-sea shipping routes, and roads. It connects 424 major cities with ports, airports and railway terminals. When the TEN-T is complete, it will cut travel times between these cities. For example, passengers will be able to travel between Copenhagen and Hamburg in 2.5 hours by train, instead of the 4.5 hours required today.
To address the missing links and modernise the entire network, today’s proposal:

Requires that the major TEN-T passenger rail lines allow trains to travel at 160 km/h or faster by 2040 thus creating competitive high-speed railway connections throughout the Union. Canals and rivers must ensure good navigation conditions, unhindered for example by water levels, for a minimum number of days per year.
Calls for more transhipment terminals, improved handling capacity at freight terminals, reduced waiting times at rail border crossings, longer trains to shift more freight onto cleaner transport modes, and the option for lorries to be transported by train network-wide. To ensure infrastructure planning meets real operational needs, it also creates nine ‘European Transport Corridors’ that integrate rail, road, and waterways.
Introduces a new intermediary deadline of 2040 to advance the completion of major parts of the network ahead of the 2050 deadline that applies to the wider, comprehensive network. So new high-speed rail connections between Porto and Vigo, and Budapest and Bucharest – among others – must be completed for 2040.
Requires all 424 major cities along the TEN-T network to develop Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans to promote zero-emission mobility and to increase and improve public transport and infrastructure for walking and cycling.

Increasing long-distance and cross-border rail traffic
Rail remains one of the safest and cleanest transport modes and is therefore at the heart of our policy to make EU mobility more sustainable. Today’s TEN-T proposal is accompanied by an Action Plan on long-distance and cross-border rail that lays out a roadmap with further actions to help the EU meet its target of doubling high-speed rail traffic by 2030, and tripling it by 2050.
Although the number of people travelling by train has increased in recent years, only 7% of rail kilometres travelled between 2001 and 2018 involved cross-border trips. To encourage more people to consider the train for trips abroad, the Action Plan sets out concrete actions to remove barriers to cross-border and long-distance travel, and make rail travel more attractive for passengers. The actions include:

a multimodal legislative proposal in 2022 to boost user-friendly multimodal ticketing;
allowing passengers to find the best tickets at the most attractive price and better supporting passengers faced with disruption, and a commitment to investigating an EU-wide VAT exemption for train tickets;
the repeal of redundant national technical and operational rules;
an announcement of proposals for 2022 on timetabling and capacity management, which will boost quicker and more frequent cross-border rail services;
guidelines for track access pricing in 2023 that will ease rail operators’ access to infrastructure, increasing competition and allowing for more attractive ticket prices for passengers.

By 2030, the Commission will support the launch of at least 15 cross-border pilot to test the Action Plan’s approach, ahead of the entry into force of the new TEN-T requirements.
Intelligent transport services for drivers
Smart mobility makes our mobility more sustainable. The Commission is therefore proposing to update the 2010 ITS Directive, adapting to the emergence of new road mobility options, mobility apps and connected and automated mobility. Our proposal will stimulate the faster deployment of new, intelligent services, by proposing that certain crucial road, travel and traffic data is made available in digital format, such as speed limits, traffic circulation plans or roadworks, along the TEN-T network and ultimately covering the entire road network. It will also ensure that essential safety-related services are made available for drivers along the TEN-T network.
Today’s proposal will update the Directive in line with new priorities on better multimodal and digital services.
Cleaner, greener, easier urban mobility
The new Urban Mobility Framework will benefit transport users and all the people around them. Cities are home to millions of people. Today’s proposal addresses some of the mobility challenges stemming from this intense economic activity – congestion, emissions, noise. The Urban Mobility Framework sets out European guidance on how cities can cut emissions and improve mobility, including via Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans. The main focus will be on public transport, walking and cycling. The proposal also prioritises zero-emission solutions for urban fleets, including taxis and ride-hailing services, the last mile of urban deliveries, and the construction and modernisation of multimodal hubs, as well as new digital solutions and services. Today’s proposal maps out the funding options for local and regional authorities to implement these priorities. In 2022, the Commission will propose a Recommendation to EU Member States for the development of national plans to assist cities in developing their mobility plans.
Background
This is the second package of proposals to support a transition to cleaner, greener transport following the publication of the Commission’s Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy in December 2020. The Strategy is a roadmap, guiding the sector towards the objectives of the European Green Deal.
Compliments of the European Commission.
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IMF | Global Debt Reaches a Record $226 Trillion

Policymakers must strike the right balance in the face of high debt and rising inflation.
In 2020, we observed the largest one-year debt surge since World War II, with global debt rising to $226 trillion as the world was hit by a global health crisis and a deep recession. Debt was already elevated going into the crisis, but now governments must navigate a world of record-high public and private debt levels, new virus mutations, and rising inflation.
Global debt rose by 28 percentage points to 256 percent of GDP, in 2020, according to the latest update of the IMF’s Global Debt Database.
Borrowing by governments accounted for slightly more than half of the increase, as the global public debt ratio jumped to a record 99 percent of GDP. Private debt from non-financial corporations and households also reached new highs.

‘The debt surge amplifies vulnerabilities, especially as financing conditions tighten.’

Debt increases are particularly striking in advanced economies, where public debt rose from around 70 percent of GDP, in 2007, to 124 percent of GDP, in 2020. Private debt, on the other hand, rose at a more moderate pace from 164 to 178 percent of GDP, in the same period.
Public debt now accounts for almost 40 percent of total global debt, the highest share since the mid-1960s. The accumulation of public debt since 2007 is largely attributable to the two major economic crises governments have faced—first the global financial crisis, and then the COVID-19 pandemic.
The great financing divide
Debt dynamics, however, differ markedly across countries. Advanced economies and China accounted for more than 90 percent of the $28 trillion debt surge in 2020. These countries were able to expand public and private debt during the pandemic, thanks to low interest rates, the actions of central banks (including large purchases of government debt), and well-developed financial markets. But most developing economies are on the opposite side of the financing divide, facing limited access to funding and often higher borrowing rates.
Looking at overall trends, we see two distinct developments.
In advanced economies, fiscal deficits soared as countries saw revenues collapse due to the recession and put in place sweeping fiscal measures as COVID-19 spread. Public debt rose 19 percentage points of GDP, in 2020, an increase like that seen during the global financial crisis, over two years: 2008 and 2009. Private debt, however, jumped by 14 percentage points of GDP in 2020, almost twice as much as during the global financial crisis, reflecting the different nature of the two crises. During the pandemic, governments and central banks supported further borrowing by the private sector to help protect lives and livelihoods. Whereas during the global financial crisis, the challenge was to contain the damage from excessively leveraged private sector.
Emerging markets and low-income developing countries faced much tighter financing constraints, but with large disparities across countries. China alone accounted for 26 percent of the global debt surge. Emerging markets (excluding China) and low-income countries accounted for small shares of the rise in global debt, around $1–$1.2 trillion each, mainly due to higher public debt.
Nevertheless, both emerging markets and low-income countries are also facing elevated debt ratios driven by the large fall in nominal GDP in 2020. Public debt in emerging markets reached record highs, while in low-income countries it rose to levels not seen since the early 2000s, when many were benefiting from debt relief initiatives.
Difficult balancing act
The large increase in debt was justified by the need to protect people’s lives, preserve jobs, and avoid a wave of bankruptcies. If governments had not taken action, the social and economic consequences would have been devastating.
But the debt surge amplifies vulnerabilities, especially as financing conditions tighten. High debt levels constrain, in most cases, the ability of governments to support the recovery and the capacity of the private sector to invest in the medium term.
A crucial challenge is to strike the right mix of fiscal and monetary policies in an environment of high debt and rising inflation. Fiscal and monetary policies fortunately complemented each other during the worst of the pandemic. Central bank actions, especially in advanced economies, pushed interest rates down to their limit and made it easier for governments to borrow.
Monetary policy is now appropriately shifting focus to rising inflation and inflation expectations. While an increase in inflation, and nominal GDP, helps reduce debt ratios in some cases, this is unlikely to sustain a significant decline in debt. As central banks raise interest rates to prevent persistently high inflation, borrowing costs rise. In many emerging markets, policy rates have already increased and further rises are expected. Central banks are also planning to reduce their large purchases of government debt and other assets in advanced economies—but how this reduction is carried out will have implications for the economic recovery and fiscal policy.
As interest rates rise, fiscal policy will need to adjust, especially in countries with higher debt vulnerabilities. As history shows, fiscal support will become less effective when interest rates respond—that is, higher spending (or lower taxes) will have less impact on economic activity and employment and could fuel inflation pressures. Debt sustainability concerns are likely to intensify.
The risks will be magnified if global interest rates rise faster than expected and growth falters. A significant tightening of financial conditions would heighten the pressure on the most highly indebted governments, households, and firms. If the public and private sectors are forced to deleverage simultaneously, growth prospects will suffer.
The uncertain outlook and heightened vulnerabilities make it critical to achieve the right balance between policy flexibility, nimble adjustment to changing circumstances, and commitment to credible and sustainable medium-term fiscal plans. Such a strategy would both reduce debt vulnerabilities and facilitate the work of central banks to contain inflation.
Targeted fiscal support will play a crucial role to protect the vulnerable (see the October 2021 Fiscal Monitor).
Some countries—especially those with high gross financing needs (rollover risks) or exposure to exchange rate volatility—may need to adjust faster to preserve market confidence and prevent more disruptive fiscal distress. The pandemic and the global financing divide demand strong, effective international cooperation and support to developing countries.
Authors:

Vitor Gaspar, a Portuguese national, is Director of the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department

Paulo Medas is Division Chief in the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department and oversees the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor

Roberto Perrelli is a Senior Economist in the IMF’s Fiscal Policy and Surveillance Division, Fiscal Affairs Department, where he also works on the IMF Fiscal Monitor

Virat Singh, Andrew Womer, and Yuan Xiang provided valuable research assistance updating the Global Debt Database.

Compliments of the IMF.
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IMF | Making Electronic Money Safer in the Digital Age

As e-money use grows, regulators need to focus on consumer protection and the integrity of the overall payments system.
Imagine you go to pay for your morning coffee and your stored-value card returns an error message, or the wallet in the payments app on your phone isn’t opening because the company providing the payment service has gone bankrupt. Worse, what if you live in a rural area and the e-money service provided through your mobile phone was the only access you have to the financial system? Or your government now relies on the e-money system to transfer benefits or collect taxes on a large scale?

‘With the growing importance of e-money issuers, a comprehensive, robust framework for regulation and safeguarding customer funds is critical.’

Digital forms of money—including central bank digital currencies, privately issued stable coins, and e-money—continue to evolve and find new ways to become more integral in people’s day-to-day lives. In essence e-money is a digital representation of fiat currency guaranteed by its issuer. Customers exchange regular money into e-money, which they can use to make payments through an app on their cellphone to individuals and businesses alike with ease and immediate effect. Compared to other recently developed forms of digital money, such as stablecoins, e-money has been around for some time and its customer base continues to rapidly increase. Unlike most privately issued stablecoins, e-money operates in a regulated framework.
For regulators and supervisors charged with protecting consumers and ensuring a level playing field for all financial intermediaries, keeping pace with new developments can be challenging. Regulators and supervisors need to consider how to best protect customers from the failure of (potentially systemic) e-money issuers, including preventing the loss of their funds.
A new IMF staff paper considers these and other scenarios that may put consumers and—potentially—entire e-money systems at risk. We examine how regulatory practices are evolving on a country-by-country basis and put forward a set of policy recommendations on regulating e-money issuers and safeguarding their customers’ funds.
E-money offers payment solutions for the unbanked
We can think of e-money as an electronic store of monetary value on a prepaid card or an electronic device, often a mobile phone, that may be widely used for making payments. The stored value also represents an enforceable claim against the e-money issuer, by which its customers can demand at any time to be repaid the funds they used to purchase e-money.
E-money is already a vital part of daily life for billions of people, especially in many developing countries, where many lack access to the banking system. As shown in the chart below, a high percentage of the population across a number of East African countries now use e-money, making it important from a macro-financial perspective. It is estimated, for instance, that two-thirds of the combined adult population of Kenya (where M-PESA has reached a high degree of market penetration), Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda use e‑money regularly. Many of these people do not have bank accounts or other access to the formal financial system, so they store significant shares of their disposable funds in e‑money wallets and access them using mobile phones or computers.
Protecting financial systems and consumers alike
With the growing importance of e-money issuers, a comprehensive, robust framework for regulation and safeguarding customer funds is critical. Issuers should be subject to proportionate prudential regulatory requirements. For example, they should establish operational risk governance and management systems to identify and limit risks. They should also be prohibited from retail lending. And, in order to protect consumers who may be less sophisticated than bank customers, rules should be put in place governing how issuers disclose fees, protect consumer data, and handle complaints.
One of the most important regulatory measures identified in our paper is that in order to protect customers’ money, all e-money issuers need to implement mechanisms to safekeep and segregate those funds. Issuers need to maintain a secure pool of liquid funds that is equivalent to the amounts of customers’ balances, and which is kept separate from the issuer’s own funds. This is a fundamental safeguard against misuse of the funds and should allow, in principle, for recovery of those funds in the event of bankruptcy of an issuer.
Keeping the customers’ funds segregated, however, does not resolve all the problems if a potentially systemic issuer were to fail. In the absence of specific bankruptcy rules, segregation by itself does not ensure that the customers would get quick access to their funds, and this discontinuity may create severe problems if the issuer plays a potentially systemic role in the payments system and in day-to-day transactions of the country.
Potentially systemic, potentially problematic
Regulators and supervisors may need to significantly strengthen prudential oversight and user-protection arrangements, depending on the business model and size of the e-money system. In countries with a potentially systemic e-money issuer or sector, the protection in place should seek to preserve customers’ funds and ensure continuity of critical payment services.
While some countries have sought to extend deposit insurance to e-money, further efforts may be needed to operationalize such protection and ensure that it would work effectively in practice. In particular, customers should not lose access to their funds and, therefore, services should be restorable or replaceable quickly, preferably within hours. But putting e‑money deposit insurance into practice remains untested so far—at least in practical terms. The costs and benefits of extending deposit insurance coverage effectively to e-money should be carefully considered.
As with many issues in the fintech sphere, best practices are still taking shape, making policy decisions challenging. However, the pandemic has only increased the importance of prudent e-money frameworks, as the number of online transactions and e-money’s growth has accelerated. For regulators and supervisors, the time for action is now.
Compliments of the IMF.
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Government support cushions tax revenues in OECD countries from the worst impacts of the COVID-19 crisis

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tax revenues was less pronounced than during previous crises, in part due to government support measures introduced to support households and businesses, according to new OECD research published today.
The 2021 edition of the OECD’s annual Revenue Statistics publication shows that the OECD average tax-to-GDP ratio has risen slightly to 33.5% in 2020, an increase of 0.1 percentage points since 2019. Although nominal tax revenues fell in most OECD countries, the falls in countries’ GDP were often greater, resulting in a small increase in the average tax-to-GDP ratio.
This year’s edition includes the first comparable analysis on the initial tax revenue impacts of COVID-19 across OECD countries, which suggests that government support measures contributed to the relative stability of tax revenues by protecting employment and reducing corporate bankruptcies to a considerably greater extent than in the global financial crisis in 2008-2009.
The report also finds that many of the tax policy measures implemented to support households and businesses often had a direct revenue cost via reductions in tax liabilities, enhanced tax credits and allowances and reductions in tax rates. The sharp reduction in economic activity in 2020 reduced labour force participation, household consumption and business profits, further affecting tax revenues, although the shock was shorter and more sector-specific than the global financial crisis, contributing to its more muted impact on tax revenues.
The report shows that countries’ tax-to-GDP ratios in 2020 ranged from 17.9% in Mexico to 46.5% in Denmark, with increases seen in 20 countries and decreases in the other 16 for which 2020 data were available. The largest increases in tax-to-GDP ratios in 2020 were seen in Spain (1.9 percentage points), which experienced the largest fall in nominal GDP and a lower fall in nominal tax revenues. Other large increases were seen in Mexico (1.6 p.p.) and Iceland (1.3 p.p.). The largest decreases were seen in Ireland (1.7 p.p.), partially due to lower VAT revenues following a temporary reduction in VAT and decreased economic activity. Other large decreases were seen in Chile (1.6 p.p.) and Norway (1.3 p.p.). In Norway, the fall was due to a sharp decrease in corporate income tax revenues due to temporary changes in the Petroleum Tax Act during the pandemic.

Across the OECD, corporate income tax and excise tax revenues were the most negatively affected by the COVID-19 crisis. Corporate income tax revenues saw the largest average decrease (0.4 p.p. of GDP, with declines in 26 countries); and lower fuel use due to mobility restrictions led to a small but widespread decrease for excise revenues (0.1 p.p. on average with declines in 28 countries).
By contrast, personal income taxes and social security contributions saw an increase in revenues, on average (by 0.3 p.p. in both cases, and in 28 and 29 countries respectively). The fact that revenues from these two taxes held up most likely reflects that governments provided considerable support to maintaining the connection between workers and the labour market in this crisis. No change was seen in property taxes or VAT as a share of GDP, on average.
To access the Revenue Statistics report, data, overview and country notes, go to http://oe.cd/revenue-statistics.
Contacts:

Lawrence Speer in the OECD Media Office | Lawrence.Speer@oecd.org

Pascal Saint-Amans | pascal.saint-amans@oecd.org

David Bradbury in the OECD Centre for Tax Policy and Administration | David.Bradbury@oecd.org

Compliments of the OECD.
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Competition: EU-US launch Joint Technology Competition Policy Dialogue to foster cooperation in competition policy and enforcement in technology sector

Today, European Commission Executive Vice-President Margrethe Vestager, US Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan and the Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust of the US Department of Justice Jonathan Kanter have launched the EU-US Joint Technology Competition Policy Dialogue in Washington DC.
The European Commission, the US Federal Trade Commission and the US Department of Justice have issued a joint statement.
Margrethe Vestager, European Commission Executive Vice-President in charge of competition policy, said: “The European Commission and the US competition authorities have a longstanding tradition of cooperation in competition policy and enforcement. Today, with the launch of the EU-US Joint Technology Competition Policy Dialogue, we reinforce this cooperation with a particular attention to the fast evolving technology sector.”
In June 2021, in parallel to the launch of the EU-US Trade and Technology Council (TTC), the EU and the US have set up a Joint Technology Competition Policy Dialogue (TCPD) that will focus on developing common approaches and strengthening the cooperation on competition policy and enforcement in the technology sector.
In the joint statement published today, the European Commission, the US Federal Trade Commission and the US Department of Justice have underlined the shared democratic values and a common belief in the importance of well-functioning and competitive markets, cornerstones for the continued strengthening of the EU-US economic and trade relationship. They have underlined the intention to collaborate to ensure and promote fair competition, on the basis of the common belief that vigorous and effective competition enforcement benefits consumers, businesses, and workers on both sides of the Atlantic.
The European Commission and the US authorities face common challenges in competition enforcement in digital investigations, such as network effects, the role of massive amounts of data, interoperability, and other characteristics typically found in new technology and digital markets. The TCPD aims at sharing insights and experience with an aim towards coordinating as much as possible on policy and enforcement.
Following today’s launch, the TCPD will continue with high-level meetings, as well as regular discussions at technical level.
Background
On 15 June 2021, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and President Joe Biden of the United States launched the EU-US Trade and Technology Council (TTC). The TTC serves as a forum for the United States and European Union to coordinate approaches to key global trade, economic, and technology issues and to deepen transatlantic trade and economic relations based on shared democratic values.
The European Commission, the US Federal Trade Commission, and the Antitrust Division of the US Department of Justice have a longstanding tradition of close cooperation in antitrust enforcement and policy. This cooperation began even before the formal 1991 Agreement between the Commission of the European Communities and the Government of the United States of America Regarding the Application of their Competition Laws, subsequently complemented by the 1998 agreement on the application of positive comity principles in the enforcement of their competition laws. In 2011, the three agencies reaffirmed their strong commitment to this mutually beneficial cooperative relationship by adopting joint Best Practices on Merger Cooperation.
Compliments of the European Commission.
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IMF | Global Crypto Regulation Should be Comprehensive, Consistent, and Coordinated

The IMF’s mandate is to safeguard the stability of the international monetary and financial system, and crypto assets are changing the system profoundly.
Crypto assets and associated products and services have grown rapidly in recent years. Furthermore, interlinkages with the regulated financial system are rising. Policymakers struggle to monitor risks from this evolving sector, in which many activities are unregulated. In fact, we think these financial stability risks could soon become systemic in some countries.

‘Uncoordinated regulatory measures may facilitate potentially destabilizing capital flows.’

While the nearly $2.5 trillion market capitalization indicates significant economic value of the underlying technological innovations such as the blockchain, it might also reflect froth in an environment of stretched valuations. Indeed, early reactions to the Omicron variant included a significant crypto selloff.

Financial system risks from crypto assets
Determining valuation is not the only challenge in the crypto ecosystem: identification, monitoring, and management of risks defy regulators and firms. These include, for example, operational and financial integrity risks from crypto asset exchanges and wallets, investor protection, and inadequate reserves and inaccurate disclosure for some stablecoins. Moreover, in emerging markets and developing economies, the advent of crypto can accelerate what we have called “cryptoization”—when these assets replace domestic currency, and circumvent exchange restrictions and capital account management measures.
Such risks underscore why we now need comprehensive international standards that more fully address risks to the financial system from crypto assets, their associated ecosystem, and their related transactions, while allowing for an enabling environment for useful crypto asset products and applications.
The Financial Stability Board, in its coordinating role, should develop a global framework comprising standards for regulation of crypto assets. The objective should be to provide a comprehensive and coordinated approach to managing risks to financial stability and market conduct that can be consistently applied across jurisdictions, while minimizing the potential for regulatory arbitrage, or moving activity to jurisdictions with easier requirements.
Crypto’s cross-sector and cross-border remit limits the effectiveness of national approaches. Countries are taking very different strategies, and existing laws and regulations may not allow for national approaches that comprehensively cover all elements of these assets. Importantly, many crypto service providers operate across borders, making the task for supervision and enforcement more difficult. Uncoordinated regulatory measures may facilitate potentially destabilizing capital flows.
Standard-setting bodies responsible for different products and markets have provided varying levels of guidance. For example, the Financial Action Task Force has issued guidance for a risk-based approach to mitigating financial integrity risks from virtual assets and their service providers. Actions by other standard-setting bodies range from broad principles for some types of crypto assets to rules for mitigating exposure risks of regulated entities and setting up information exchange networks. While useful, these efforts aren’t sufficiently coordinated towards a global framework for managing the risks to financial and market integrity, financial stability, and consumer and investor protection.
Making regulation work at the global level
The global regulatory framework should provide a level playing field along the activity and risk spectrum. We believe this should, for example, have the following three elements:

Crypto-asset service providers that deliver critical functions should be licensed or authorized. These would include storage, transfer, settlement, and custody of reserves and assets, among others, similar to existing rules for financial service providers. Licensing and authorization criteria should be clearly articulated, the responsible authorities clearly designated, and coordination mechanisms among them well defined.
Requirements should be tailored to the main use cases of crypto assets and stablecoins. For example, services and products for investments should have requirements similar to those of securities brokers and dealers, overseen by the securities regulator. Services and products for payments should have requirements similar to those of bank deposits, overseen by the central bank or the payments oversight authority. Regardless of the initial authority for approving crypto services and products, all overseers—from central banks to securities and banking regulators—need to coordinate to address the various risks arising from different and changing uses.
Authorities should provide clear requirements on regulated financial institutions concerning their exposure to and engagement with crypto. For example, the appropriate banking, securities, insurance, and pension regulators should stipulate the capital and liquidity requirements and limits on exposure to different types of these assets, and require investor suitability and risk assessments. If the regulated entities provide custody services, requirements should be clarified to address the risks arising from those functions.

Some emerging markets and developing economies face more immediate and acute risks of currency substitution through crypto assets, the so-called cryptoization. Capital flow management measures will need to be fine-tuned in the face of cryptoization. This is because applying established regulatory tools to manage capital flows may be more challenging when value is transmitted through new instruments, new channels and new service providers that are not regulated entities.
There is an urgent need for cross-border collaboration and cooperation to address the technological, legal, regulatory, and supervisory challenges. Setting up a comprehensive, consistent, and coordinated regulatory approach to crypto is a daunting task. But if we start now, we can achieve the policy goal of maintaining financial stability while benefiting from the benefits that the underlying technological innovations bring.
Crypto assets are potentially changing the international monetary and financial system in profound ways.  The IMF has developed a strategy in order to continue to deliver on its mandate in the digital age. The Fund will work closely with the Financial Stability Board and other members of the international regulatory community to develop an effective regulatory approach to crypto assets.
Authors:

Tobias Adrian is the Financial Counsellor and Director of the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Dong He is Deputy Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department (MCM) of the International Monetary Fund

Aditya Narain is Deputy Director in the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department (MCM)

Compliments of the IMF.
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EU strengthens protection against economic coercion

The European Commission has today proposed a new tool to counter the use of economic coercion by third countries. This legal instrument is in response to the EU and its Member States becoming the target of deliberate economic pressure in recent years. It strengthens the EU’s toolbox and will allow the EU to better defend itself on the global stage.
The aim is to deter countries from restricting or threatening to restrict trade or investment to bring about a change of policy in the EU in areas such as climate change, taxation or food safety. The anti-coercion instrument is designed to de-escalate and induce discontinuation of specific coercive measures through dialogue as a first step. Any countermeasures taken by the EU would be applied only as a last resort when there is no other way to address economic intimidation, which can take many forms. These range from countries using explicit coercion and trade defence tools against the EU, to selective border or food safety checks on goods from a given EU country, to boycotts of goods of certain origin. The aim is to preserve the EU and the Member States’ legitimate right to make policy choices and decisions and prevent serious interference in the sovereignty of the EU or its Member States.
Executive Vice-President and Commissioner for Trade, Valdis Dombrovskis said: “At a time of rising geopolitical tensions, trade is increasingly being weaponised and the EU and its Member States becoming targets of economic intimidation. We need the proper tools to respond. With this proposal we are sending a clear message that the EU will stand firm in defending its interests. The main aim of the anti-coercion tool is to act as a deterrent. But we now also have more tools at our disposal when pushed to act. This instrument will allow us to respond to the geopolitical challenges of the coming decades, keeping Europe strong and agile.”
With this new instrument, the EU will be able to respond to cases of economic coercion in a structured and uniform manner. A dedicated legislative framework ensures predictability and transparency; it underlines the EU’s adherence to a rules-based approach, also internationally.
The EU will engage directly with the country concerned to stop the economic intimidation. If the economic intimidation does not stop immediately, the new instrument will allow the EU to react swiftly and effectively, providing a tailor-made and proportional response for each situation from imposing tariffs and restricting imports from the country in question, to restrictions on services or investment or steps to limit the country’s access to the EU’s internal market.
Background
The Commission’s proposal follows requests from the European Parliament and a number of Member States. This was acknowledged in a joint declaration of the Commission, the Council and the European Parliament on an instrument to deter and counteract coercive actions by third countries issued on 2 February. It was developed after an in-depth public consultation at EU level (including an impact assessment) in which stakeholders – especially businesses, industry associations and think-tanks – broadly signalled the problem of economic intimidation and coercion against EU interests and supported an EU-level deterring instrument.
Next steps
The proposal now needs to be discussed and agreed by the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union. It will be considered under the Ordinary Legislative Procedure, whereby the Parliament and Council will internally develop their positions before negotiating with each other in Trilogue discussions with the assistance of the Commission. In the next two months, stakeholders and citizens may provide further feedback, on which the Commission will report to the Council and Parliament.
Compliments of the European Commission.
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IMF | Metals Demand From Energy Transition May Top Current Global Supply

Firm, market, and country level factors may weigh on metals production under a net-zero scenario.
The clean energy transition needed to avoid the worst effects of climate change could unleash unprecedented metals demand in coming decades, requiring as much as 3 billion tons.
A typical electric vehicle battery pack, for example, needs around 8 kilograms (18 pounds) of lithium, 35 kilograms of nickel, 20 kilograms of manganese and 14 kilograms of cobalt, while charging stations require substantial amounts of copper. For green power, solar panels use large quantities of copper, silicon, silver and zinc, while wind turbines require iron ore, copper and aluminum.

‘The needed ramp-up in mining investment and operations could be challenging.’

Such needs could send metal demand and prices surging for many years, as we outlined in a recent blog post based on our research for the October World Economic Outlook and a new IMF staff paper.
Metal prices have already seen large increases as economies re-opened, highlighting a critical need to analyze what could constrain production and delay supply responses. Specifically, we assess whether there are enough mineral and metal deposits to satisfy needs for low-carbon technologies and how to best address factors that could restrain mining investment and metals supplies.
Supply constraints
Under the International Energy Agency’s Net-Zero by 2050 Roadmap, the share of power from renewables would rise from current levels of around 10 percent to 60 percent, boosted by solar, wind, and hydropower. Fossil fuels would shrink from almost 80 percent to about 20 percent.
Replacing fossil fuels with low-carbon technologies would require an eightfold increase in renewable energy investments and cause a strong increase in demand for metals. However, developing mines is a process that takes a very long time—often a decade or more—and presents various challenges, at both the company and country level.
The first question is how far current metals production is stretched and whether existing reserves can provide for the energy transition. Given the projected increase in metals consumption through 2050 under a net zero scenario, current production rates of graphite, cobalt, vanadium, and nickel appear inadequate, showing a more than two-thirds gap versus the demand. Current copper, lithium and platinum supplies also are inadequate to satisfy future needs, with a 30 percent to 40 percent gap versus demand.

We also examined whether production can be scaled up, by looking at current metal reserves. For some minerals, existing reserves would allow greater production through more investment in extraction, such as for graphite and vanadium. For other minerals, current reserves could be a constraint on future demand—especially lithium and lead, but also for zinc, silver, and silicon.
Importantly, however, metal reserves and production are not static. Firms can expand reserves through innovation in extraction technology and further exploration efforts may lead to increasing the future supply of metals to meet future demands.
Moreover, metals recycling can also increase supplies. Reuse of scrap metals only occurs on a large scale for copper and nickel, but it’s now increasing for some scarcer materials like lithium and cobalt.
One complicating factor is that some important supplies are generally very concentrated. This implies that a few producers will benefit disproportionately from growing demand. Conversely, this lays bare energy transition risks from supply bottlenecks should investments in production capacity not meet demand, or in case of potential geopolitical risk inside or between producer nations.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo, for example, accounts for about 70 percent of cobalt output and half of reserves. The role is so dominant that the energy transition could become more difficult if the country can’t expand mining operations. Similar risks apply to China, Chile, and South Africa, which are all top producers for some of the metals most crucial to the energy transition. Breakdowns or disruptions in their institutions, regulations, or policies could complicate supply growth.
Financing concerns
A related challenge is insufficient financing for metals and mining investment due to growing investor focus on environmental, social, and governance considerations, or ESG. Mining involves environmental impacts and fuels global warming, albeit just a fraction of coal and gas generation, as pointed out by a World Bank report on the mineral intensity of the energy transition.
Reduced access to financing by firms with lower ratings could constrain production, adding another potential supply-chain bottleneck. In response, miners are trying to reduce their carbon footprint. An S&P Global analysis shows that the ESG average score of the S&P Global 1200, an index representing about 70 percent of global stock-market capitalization, stood at 62 out of 100, while the metals and mining sector’s score rose to 52 last year from 39 in 2018. This may indicate miners are catching up with other sectors to become more attractive to global investors seeking to build more responsible portfolios.
Commitment to better environmental scores could help unlock more green financing for mining firms. This is supported by our analysis of S&P 1200 firms, which shows that mining companies that raised their ESG ratings from 2018 to 2020 also saw an increase in debt and equity financing. More generally, the effort to unlock more green financing is also aided by global efforts from, among others, the World Bank’s Climate-Smart Mining Initiative and IMF support for greening the recovery and promoting green finance.
The world needs more low-carbon energy technologies to keep temperatures from rising by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, and the transition could unleash an unprecedented metals demand. While deposits are broadly sufficient, the needed ramp-up in mining investment and operations could be challenging for some metals and may be derailed by market- or country-specific risks.
Authors:

Nico Valckx is currently a senior economist with the IMF’s Research Department

Martin Stuermer is an economist at the Commodities Unit of the IMF’s Research Department

Dulani Seneviratne is a financial sector expert in the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Ananthakrishnan Prasad is Deputy Division Chief in the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the IMF

This blog post benefitted from comments by Andrea Pescatori

Compliments of the IMF.
The post IMF | Metals Demand From Energy Transition May Top Current Global Supply first appeared on European American Chamber of Commerce New York [EACCNY] | Your Partner for Transatlantic Business Resources.

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New rules on VAT rates offer Member States more flexibility while supporting the EU’s green, digital and public health priorities

The Commission welcomes the agreement reached by EU finance ministers today to update the current rules governing value-added tax (VAT) rates for goods and services. These new rules will provide governments with more flexibility in the rates they can apply and ensure equal treatment between EU Member States. At the same time, the updated legislation will bring VAT rules into line with common EU priorities such as fighting climate change, supporting digitalisation and protecting public health. The European Parliament must now be consulted on this final text.
Paolo Gentiloni, Commissioner for Economy, said: “Today’s unanimous agreement to modernise the rules governing VAT rates is excellent news. The result of marathon negotiations, it shows that where there is a will, there is a way – a European way forward. Member States will have more flexibility to make their VAT systems reflect national policy choices, while ensuring coherence with common European priorities: the green and digital transitions and of course the protection of public health.”
In detail
Current EU rules on VAT rates are almost thirty years old and were in urgent need of modernisation given the evolution of the overall VAT rules over the years. That is why the Commission proposed in 2018 to reform VAT rates.
Today’s agreement will ensure that EU VAT rules are fully aligned with the EU’s common policy priorities. Today’s announcement will address these issues by:

Updating the list of goods and services (Annex III to the VAT Directive) to which all Member States can apply reduced VAT rates. New products and services added to the list include those that protect public health, are good for the environment and support the digital transition. Once the rules come into force, Member States will for the first time also be able to exempt from VAT certain listed goods and services considered to cover basic needs.

Removing the possibility by 2030 for Member States to apply reduced rates and exemptions to goods and services deemed detrimental to the environment and to the EU’s climate change objectives.

Making derogations and exemptions for specific goods and services, currently in place for historical reasons in certain Member States available to all countries to ensure equal treatment and avoid distortions of competition. However, existing derogations that are not justified by public policy objectives other than those in support of EU’s climate action will need to end by 2032.

Today’s new rules are supported by a previous agreement to move the EU’s VAT system to one where VAT is paid in the Member State of the consumer rather than the Member State of the supplier. This ensures that a greater diversity in rates (as agreed today) would be less likely to disrupt the functioning of the Single Market or to create distortions of competition. At the same time, it also avoids proliferation of reduced rates which would endanger Member States’ capacity to collect revenues in the post-COVID-19 era.
In the coming years, Member States will need to pursue efforts to ensure a sustainable recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and invest heavily for the green and digital transitions. Protecting public revenues is particularly important in this context. This is why the updated legislation also specifies the minimum level of reduced rates, as well as the maximum number of goods and services in Annex III to which Member States may apply those rates (see Q&A for full details). For the first time, however, Member States will also be able to apply one reduced rate lower than 5% or exempt a small number of items on the list from VAT.
Next steps
The updated rules will now be sent to the European Parliament for its consultation on the final text by March 2022. Once formally adopted by Member States, the legislation will come into force 20 days after its publication in the Official Journal of the European Union, allowing Member States to apply the new system as of that date.
Compliments of the European Commission.
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IMF | The G20 Common Framework for Debt Treatments Must Be Stepped Up

With the debt service suspension initiative expiring and interest rates poised to rise, low-income countries will find it increasingly difficult to service their debts.
Despite significant relief measures brought on by the COVID-19 crisis, about 60 percent of low-income countries are at high risk or already in debt distress. In 2015 that number was below 30 percent.

‘With policy space tightening for highly indebted countries, the framework can and must deliver more quickly.’

For many of these countries, the challenges are mounting. New variants are causing further disruptions to economic activity. COVID-related initiatives such as the G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) are ending. Many countries face arrears or a reduction in priority expenditures. We may see economic collapse in some countries unless G20 creditors agree to accelerate debt restructurings and suspend debt service while the restructurings are being negotiated. It is also critical that private sector creditors implement debt relief on comparable terms.
Recent experiences of Chad, Ethiopia, and Zambia show that the Common Framework for debt treatments beyond the DSSI must be improved. Quick action is needed to build confidence in the framework and provide a road map for helping other countries facing increasing debt vulnerabilities.
2022: a more challenging debt outlook
Since the start of the pandemic, low-income countries have benefited from some attenuating measures. Domestic policies, together with low interest rates in advanced economies mitigated the financial impact of the crisis on their economies. The G20 put in place the DSSI to temporarily pause official debt payments to the poorest countries, followed by the Common Framework to help these countries restructure their debt and deal with insolvency and protracted liquidity problems. The international community also scaled-up its financial support, including record IMF emergency lending and a $650 billion allocation of special drawing rights, or SDRs—$21 billion of which was allocated directly to low-income countries. The G20 leaders committed to support low-income countries with onlending $100 billion of their SDRs to significantly magnify this impact.
No doubt 2022 will be much more challenging with the tightening of international financial conditions on the horizon. The DSSI will expire at the end of this year forcing participating countries to resume debt service payments. Countries will need to transition to strong programs, and for low-income countries that need comprehensive debt treatment, the Common Framework will be critical to unlock IMF financing.
But the Common Framework is yet to deliver on its promise. This requires prompt action.
Implementation so far has been slow
The Common Framework is intended to deal with insolvency and protracted liquidity problems, along with the implementation of an IMF-supported reform program. G20 official creditors—both traditional “Paris Club” creditors, such as France and the United States, and new creditors, such as China and India, which, as shown in the chart below, overtook the Paris Club as lenders in the last decade—agreed to coordinate to provide debt relief consistent with the debtor’s capacity to pay and maintain essential spending needs. The Common Framework requires private creditors to participate on comparable terms to overcome collective action challenges and ensure fair burden sharing.

But so far, only three countries—Chad, Ethiopia, and Zambia—have made requests for debt relief under the Common Framework. And each case has experienced significant delays.
In part, these delays reflect the problems that motivated the creation of the Common Framework in the first place. These include coordinating Paris Club and other creditors, as well as multiple government institutions and agencies within creditor countries, which can slow down decisions. The Common Framework aims to mitigate these problems but does not eliminate them. New creditors, including relevant domestic institutions, need to gain comfort with restructuring processes that would allow all creditors to work together in providing relief and enable the IMF to lend to countries facing debt difficulties. This takes time.
But there were also delays for reasons that have nothing to do with the Common Framework. To restore debt sustainability, Chad must restructure a large, collateralized obligation held by a private company, which is partly syndicated to a large number of banks and funds. This complicates the decision-making process. Domestic challenges slowed progress in Ethiopia and Zambia.
No time to waste
With policy space tightening for highly indebted countries, the framework can and must deliver more quickly.
First, greater clarity on the different steps and timelines in the Common Framework process is vital. Alongside earlier engagement of official creditors with the debtor and with private creditors, this would help accelerate decision making.
Second, a comprehensive and sustained debt service payment standstill for the duration of the negotiation would provide relief to the debtor at a time when it is under stress, as well as incentivize faster procedures to get to the actual debt restructuring.
Third, the Common Framework should clarify further how the comparability of treatment will be effectively enforced, including as needed through implementation of the IMF arrears policies, so as to give greater comfort to creditors and debtors.
Last but not least, the Common Framework should be expanded to other highly-indebted countries that can benefit from creditor coordination. Timely and orderly debt resolution is in the interest of both debtors and creditors.
Ensuring a success in the early cases will not only benefit the countries, but foster confidence in the Common Framework. In that regard, finalizing Chad’s restructuring quickly can serve as an essential precedent for other countries. In Ethiopia, the creditor committee should continue the technical work that will allow early provision of debt relief assurances once the situation stabilizes. In Zambia, G20 creditors should expeditiously form a committee of official creditors and begin engaging with the authorities and private creditors on debt relief, while also providing a temporary debt-service suspension for the duration of the debt-restructuring discussions. Otherwise, the country would be confronted with the impossible choice of cutting priority expenditures or piling up arrears.
Debt challenges are pressing and the need for action is urgent. The recent Omicron variant is a stark reminder that the pandemic will be with us for a while. Determined multilateral action is needed now to address vaccine inequality globally and also to support timely and orderly debt resolution. For its part, the IMF is ready to work with the World Bank and all our partners to help ensure the framework delivers for the people it was put in place to help.
Authors:

Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the IMF

Ceyla Pazarbasioglu is Director of the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department (SPR) of the IMF

Compliments of the IMF.
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