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ESMA consults on changes to CRA supervisory fees

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), the EU’s securities markets regulator, today launches a public consultation on the revision of the Delegated Regulation regarding fees charged to CRAs.

The consultation paper contains proposals which ensure that the supervisory fees charged to credit rating agencies (CRAs) reflect the costs of registration, certification and on-going supervision whilst remaining proportionate to CRAs’ turnover.
ESMA’s main proposals are to charge:

A single registration fee of €45,000;
Annual supervisory fees of €20,000 to registered CRAs with annual revenues of between €1 million and €10 million;
An annual endorsement fee of €20,000 to all CRAs endorsing credit ratings for use in the EU; and
Annual fees to all certified CRAs.

ESMA’s proposals are also intended to align the approach to collecting CRA supervisory fees with the approach taken under ESMA’s other supervisory mandates so that the fee collection process becomes easier to administer in future.
The aim of this consultation is to gather stakeholder views on the appropriateness of the proposals and their likely impact. These views will help ESMA prepare Technical Advice for the European Commission on changes to the Delegated Regulation on fees charged to CRAs.
ESMA seeks feedback on its proposals from CRAs and their auditors, firms considering registration as Credit Rating Agencies and firms applying for certification status. The consultation paper may also be of interest to trade associations representing CRAs and users of credit ratings.
Next steps
The public consultation is open until 15 March 2021. Responses should be submitted using the form available on ESMA’s website. The responses to the Consultation Paper will inform ESMA’s Technical Advice to the European Commission on the revision of the Delegated Regulation, by 31 June 2021.
Compliments of the European Securities and Markets Authority.

The post ESMA consults on changes to CRA supervisory fees first appeared on European American Chamber of Commerce New York [EACCNY] | Your Partner for Transatlantic Business Resources.

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ECB Speech | The sovereign-bank-corporate nexus: A virtuous or a vicious circle?

Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the LSE conference on “Financial Cycles, Risk, Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences” | Frankfurt am Main, 28 January 2021 |
One year after the first cases were reported in Europe, the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to take a tragic human toll and to pose enormous challenges to workers, firms, the financial system and policymakers in the euro area.[1]
Without the forceful responses of fiscal, monetary and prudential authorities the economic and social costs of this crisis would have been significantly higher. Governments, in particular, have stabilised aggregate demand and incomes by absorbing economic and financial risks of the private sector as the crisis unfolded.
Through the generous issuance of guarantee schemes, governments secured a continuous flow of credit to firms, which supported economic growth and protected financial stability. Monetary policy has complemented these efforts by providing ample liquidity and restoring favourable financing conditions.
As a consequence, the policy response to the pandemic has visibly intensified the interdependencies between sovereigns, banks and firms. It has created a “sovereign-bank-corporate” nexus.[2]
In my remarks today, I will argue that the extent to which such interdependencies may create challenges in the future depends, to a large extent, on the types of feedback loops they create. Broad fiscal and monetary policy support today minimise the realisation of contingent liabilities in the future, and thus limit the scarring effects of the pandemic on the economy, creating a virtuous circle.
So, contrary to the vicious “sovereign-bank” nexus[3] that plagued the euro area throughout most of the last decade, the current nexus, if managed properly, can be an engine for a faster recovery, which also supports the ECB’s price stability mandate.
A virtuous circle between sovereigns, banks and corporates
At the onset of the pandemic, the strict lockdown measures hit large parts of the corporate sector hard, raising its vulnerability to levels last seen during the global financial crisis (Chart 1). Many firms saw their revenues collapse and were facing acute liquidity shortages that threatened to turn into solvency problems.

Chart 1
Composite indicator of corporate vulnerabilities and underlying driving factors in the euro areaZ-scores

Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations.Notes: The composite measure is based on a broad set of indicators along five dimensions: debt service capacity (measured by the interest coverage ratio, corporate savings and revenue generation); leverage/indebtedness (debt-to-equity, net debt-to-EBIT and gross debt-to-income ratios); financing/rollover (ratio of short-term debt to long-term debt; quick ratio (defined as current financial assets divided by current liabilities); overall cost of debt financing and credit impulse (defined as the change in new credit issued as a percentage of GDP)); profitability (return on assets, profit margin and market-to-book value ratio) and activity (sales growth, trade creditors ratio and change in accounts receivable turnover). Except for the overall cost of debt financing and GDP, all indicators are based on data from the ECB’s quarterly sector accounts. The overall cost of debt financing indicator is calculated as a weighted average of the costs of bank borrowing and market-based debt, based on their respective amounts outstanding.

In response to these developments, governments swiftly launched broad-based measures to support households and firms, including job retention schemes, direct transfers, tax cuts and deferrals, as well as loan guarantees (Chart 2).
At the same time, the ECB supported bank lending to firms by providing ample liquidity at favourable conditions, while prudential authorities took comprehensive supervisory relief measures. The decisive policy response allowed firms to draw down their credit lines in order to finance their working capital, leading to an unprecedented increase in bank lending in the spring of 2020.

Chart 2
Loan guarantees and remaining envelopes relative to sovereign debt in 2020 in selected euro area countriesPercentages of GDP and percentages of outstanding sovereign debt

Sources: National authorities and ECB calculations.Notes: Data are based on national sources and cover guarantees committed or announced until the end of 2020. “Remaining envelope” denotes announced envelopes of guarantees that have not yet been committed.

Together, these measures helped prevent an abrupt contraction of credit to firms and a wave of corporate defaults, and protected banks’ profitability and balance sheets. Thereby, they created a virtuous circle between sovereigns, banks and corporates (Chart 3).
The wide-ranging policy support protected employment and stabilised aggregate demand, thereby substantially reducing the depth of the recession and the risk of scarring effects in the long run.

Chart 3
A virtuous circle between sovereigns, banks and corporates

Source: ECB.

At the same time, the pandemic sparked a marked increase in both sovereign and corporate debt levels (Chart 4).

Chart 4
Indebtedness of the general government and the non-financial corporate sector across the euro areapercentages of GDP

Sources: ECB and ECB calculations.Notes: Non-financial corporate sector debt figures are on a consolidated basis. The red horizontal line represents the estimated MIP benchmark of 76% of GDP for consolidated non-financial corporate debt, whereby the 133% of GDP MIP benchmark for fully consolidated non-financial private sector debt is split between households and firms based on their average past shares in the stock of euro area non-financial private debt. Consolidated non-financial corporate debt figures also include cross-border inter-company loans, which tend to account for a significant part of debt in countries where a large number of foreign entities, often multinational groups, are located (e.g. Belgium, Cyprus, Ireland, Luxembourg and the Netherlands). The red vertical line represents the threshold of 60% of GDP for sovereign debt as defined in the excessive deficit procedure under the Maastricht Treaty.

In addition to rising debt levels, the interlinkages between sovereigns, banks and firms resulting from the broad-based fiscal support have grown.
On the one hand, the sensitivity of public finances to future corporate and financial sector developments has increased, beyond the traditional impact of automatic stabilisers during a recession, such as lower tax revenues and higher social security expenses.[4]
On the other hand, banks and corporates have become more dependent on government support. Only recently, possibly in view of the potential phasing out of fiscal support measures, changes in banks’ risk perceptions have resulted in tighter credit standards for firms, according to our latest Bank Lending Survey (Chart 5).[5]

Chart 5Bank lending to euro area non-financial corporations and bank credit standardsAnnual percentage changes; weighted index

Sources: ECB (BSI statistics, Bank Lending Survey) and ECB calculations.

The sovereign-bank-corporate nexus – this time is different
But the nature of these interdependencies differs fundamentally from previous crises.
Most notably, this time, the crisis did not originate in the financial sector, as in the global financial crisis[6], but in the real economy, and public support was granted to firms, not banks.
Moreover, the pandemic has not raised concerns of moral hazard. While the global financial crisis resulted in the mutualisation of risks that should have been borne by the ultimate risk-takers, government support during the pandemic has protected the economy in the face of an exogenous shock that was not caused by excessive risk-taking.
In the pandemic crisis, broad-based fiscal support has been both necessary and proportionate to mitigate the economic and social costs of the containment measures for large parts of society.
At the same time, with the Banking Union still incomplete, the pandemic has once again exposed old vulnerabilities. For example, by absorbing some of the newly issued sovereign debt, banks have increased their exposures to the general government in many euro area countries, reinforcing the links between sovereigns and banks (Chart 6).[7]

Chart 6
Euro area bank exposures to domestic sovereign debt securities relative to total assetsJan. 2007-Sep. 2020, observed; end-2022, potential; percentage of total assets

Sources: ECB (BSI and GFS statistics, and macroeconomic projections).Notes: The dots are based on a simple projection of potential increase based on the average share of domestic sovereign debt securities held by euro area banks from March to September 2020 and public debt projected from 2020 to 2022.

In fact, bank and sovereign credit ratings remain highly correlated in the euro area (Chart 7).[8]

Chart 7
Issuer ratings of sovereigns and banks in the euro areaRating buckets

Sources: Fitch Ratings, Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s, DBRS and ECB calculations.Notes: The rating shown represents the median of the long-term issuer ratings assigned by Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch Ratings and DBRS. The bubble size indicates the combined debt of sovereigns and banks (debt securities issued) in a country as a share of the euro area total.

Given that corporate health has become more dependent on the domestic sovereign’s fiscal support, the withdrawal of government support could lead to cliff effects, giving rise to financial instabilities.[9]
It could trigger corporate defaults, a rapid rise in non-performing loans (NPLs) and tighter financing conditions. This, in turn, could cause problems in the banking sector, deepening the recession and further eroding the sovereign’s revenues, while requiring even more guarantees and higher public debt, putting pressure on the sovereign’s credit standing.
In other words, the interlinkages between banks, sovereigns and corporates, which were crucial for stabilising the economic and financial situation during the pandemic, could turn into a vicious circle, giving rise to destabilising feedback loops (Chart 8).

Chart 8
A vicious circle between sovereigns, banks and corporates

Source: ECB.

Policy implications of the sovereign-bank-corporate nexus
The extent to which these interlinkages may give rise to vulnerabilities in the future depends on two broad conditions.
First, it depends on the effectiveness of the wide-ranging policy support that is currently in place. An accelerating pace of vaccinations, favourable financing conditions and significant pent-up demand in the form of large savings can prepare the ground for a strong rebound in economic activity in the second half of this year. This would relieve stretched corporate balance sheets.
The responsible and timely use of funds provided under the Next Generation EU instrument, in combination with additional national investment efforts, can reinforce the cyclical recovery. It can bring the economy back to a higher sustainable growth path by accelerating structural change towards a more digital and less carbon-intensive economy.
Higher and more sustainable economic growth will be the most important factor in ensuring that reinforced interlinkages will not give rise to vulnerabilities and risks in the future.
Second, the potential materialisation of vulnerabilities will depend on the degree of divergence among euro area countries.
Despite generally stronger interdependencies, the extent to which these might give rise to challenges in the future differs across the euro area. Banks in more highly indebted countries also tend to exhibit higher domestic sovereign exposures and higher corporate NPL ratios. To a large extent, this reflects unresolved legacy issues with respect to the banking sector and sovereign indebtedness (Chart 9).

Chart 9
Banks’ domestic government bond holdings and corporate NPL ratios across the euro areax-axis: percentage of total assets, y-axis: percentage of total corporate loans

Sources: Bloomberg and ECB.Notes: White bubbles indicate negative values. There are no ten-year sovereign debt securities for Latvia and Estonia; two-year sovereign bond yields are shown instead as a proxy for Latvia, whereas no suitable proxy could be identified for Estonia. The red horizontal and vertical lines indicate sample medians.

The asymmetric impact of the pandemic on different industries has exacerbated prevailing vulnerabilities. Countries with high sovereign debt levels are also those that are more dependent on industries hardest hit by the pandemic, such as tourism, resulting in a larger drop in corporate profits (Chart 10).

Chart 10
Non-financial corporate profits by sovereign indebtednessindex Q4 2019 = 100

Sources: European Commission (AMECO database) and ECB calculations.Notes: Countries are split into highly and less highly indebted based on the median debt-to-GDP ratio of 13 sovereigns in 2019 for which data on the NFC gross operating surplus are available. Highly indebted (above median): ES, FR, BE, PT, IT, GR. Less highly indebted (below/equal to median): EE, NL, IE, FI, DE, SI, AT.

This underlines the importance of support at the European level. The Next Generation EU instrument helps alleviate potential strains on national fiscal space, thereby partly decoupling corporate financing conditions from the fiscal space of their respective sovereigns and directly attenuating the sovereign-bank-corporate nexus.
At the same time, these vulnerabilities are a reminder of the urgent need to make further progress on reforming the euro area’s institutional architecture, in particular by completing the Banking Union, advancing the Capital Markets Union and reviewing the European fiscal framework.
These reforms will foster risk sharing, enhance resilience and reduce procyclicality.
From the viewpoint of monetary policy, the potential emergence of an adverse macro-financial feedback loop between sovereigns, banks and corporates would matter for at least two reasons.
First, it could measurably slow down the return of inflation to our medium-term aim. Increasing corporate defaults through a premature withdrawal of fiscal support would deepen the contraction in output and, ultimately, exert additional disinflationary pressures.
Second, there is a risk that the sovereign-bank-corporate nexus could impair the smooth transmission of monetary policy through financial instabilities, a credit crunch and self-fulfilling price spirals.
The risk of a premature phasing out of fiscal support is largely outside the ECB’s control. But governments need to be mindful of cliff effects that might set off a vicious circle of corporate defaults, tighter bank lending conditions and growing sovereign vulnerabilities.
We therefore continue to call on governments to extend targeted government support for as long as needed and to use public funds responsibly, with a clear focus on raising productivity and long-term growth potential.
What we can do, however, is preserve favourable financing conditions for as long as necessary to reinforce and amplify the fiscal support and to ensure that private investment is not crowded out. This is what the Governing Council reaffirmed at its meeting last week.
On the one hand, this means insulating the bank lending channel from adverse developments, to the extent possible. At our Governing Council meeting in December we therefore decided to further recalibrate our targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III) by extending the period of more favourable terms by 12 months and by raising the total amount that counterparties are entitled to borrow.
Preserving favourable financing conditions also means protecting relevant borrowing rates in financial markets from a tightening that would be inconsistent with countering the downward impact of the pandemic on the projected path of inflation.
We therefore decided to extend and expand our pandemic emergency purchase programme, PEPP. We will now conduct purchases under the PEPP until at least March 2022 and we will purchase flexibly according to market conditions.
This means that if favourable financing conditions can be maintained with asset purchase flows that do not exhaust the envelope over the net purchase horizon of the PEPP, the envelope need not be used in full. Equally, the envelope can be recalibrated if required to maintain favourable financing conditions and help counter the negative pandemic shock to the path of inflation.
The focus on duration and preservation combines two mutually reinforcing benefits.
First, the longer duration of the PEPP itself has a stabilising impact on financial markets. It significantly mitigates the risks of a sudden repricing and of self-fulfilling price spirals that threatened to impair the transmission of our policy in March last year.
Second, this calming effect has the potential to increase the efficiency of our purchases. It allows us to calibrate our purchases flexibly according to market conditions, consistent with our commitment to preserve favourable financing conditions. As President Lagarde highlighted last week, this requires the Eurosystem to maintain a strong presence in euro area bond markets.
In summary, by focusing on duration and preservation, we are sending a clear signal to markets that the current broad-based policy mix will continue to provide the necessary support to bridge the time until the economy can stand on its own feet once again.
Conclusion
Let me conclude.
The decisive policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic by fiscal, monetary and prudential authorities has successfully prevented a much deeper economic contraction and averted threats to financial stability.
Government support measures, in combination with the ECB’s ample liquidity provision, have secured bank lending to firms throughout the crisis.
Now it must be ensured that the current virtuous sovereign-bank-corporate nexus does not turn into a vicious circle in the future. This starts with minimising the risks of cliff effects associated with an abrupt and premature withdrawal of public support.
It extends to the swift implementation of the Next Generation EU package and a commitment to use public funds in a way that raises potential growth and nurtures the trust needed to make progress with reforming and completing the euro area’s institutional architecture.
The ECB, for its part, has committed to preserve favourable financing conditions for as long as necessary, reinforcing the fiscal response.
The complementarity of fiscal and monetary policy has been instrumental in effectively countering the pandemic crisis. When the health crisis has been successfully overcome and authorities start to phase out the relief measures, this complementarity should remain an important consideration.
Thank you for your attention.
Compliments of the European Central Bank.
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Screening of websites for ‘greenwashing’: half of green claims lack evidence

Today, the European Commission and national consumer authorities released the results of a screening of websites (“sweep”), an exercise carried out each year to identify breaches of EU consumer law in online markets. This year, for the first time ever, the sweep focused on ‘greenwashing’, the practice by which companies claim they are doing more for the environment than they actually are. The “sweep” analysed green online claims from various business sectors such as garments, cosmetics and household equipment. National consumer protection authorities had reason to believe that in 42% of cases the claims were exaggerated, false or deceptive and could potentially qualify as unfair commercial practices under EU rules. ‘Greenwashing’ has increased as consumers increasingly seek to buy environmentally sound products.
Didier Reynders, Commissioner for Justice, said: “More and more people want to live a green life, and I applaud companies that strive to produce eco-friendly products or services. However, there are also unscrupulous traders out there, who pull the wool over consumers’ eyes with vague, false or exaggerated claims. The Commission is fully committed to empowering consumers in the green transition and fighting greenwashing. This is precisely one of the main priorities of the New Consumer Agenda adopted last autumn.”
Main findings:
After a broader screening, the Commission and consumer authorities examined 344 seemingly dubious claims in more detail and found that:

In more than half of the cases, the trader did not provide sufficient information for consumers to judge the claim’s accuracy.
In 37% of cases, the claim included vague and general statements such as “conscious”, “eco-friendly”, “sustainable” which aimed to convey the unsubstantiated impression to consumers that a product had no negative impact on the environment.
Moreover, in 59% of cases the trader had not provided easily accessible evidence to support its claim.

In their overall assessments, taking various factors into account, in 42% of cases authorities had reason to believe that the claim may be false or deceptive and could therefore potentially amount to an unfair commercial practice under the Unfair Commercial Practices Directive (UCPD).
Next steps
National authorities will contact the companies concerned to point out the issues detected and to ensure that these are rectified where necessary. The findings of this sweep will feed into the impact assessment to be prepared for the new legislative proposal to empower consumers for the green transition, which was announced in the New Consumer Agenda.
Background
A “sweep” is a set of checks carried out simultaneously on different websites to identify possible breaches of EU consumer law in a particular sector. This year the “sweep” focused on companies claiming to sell environmentally friendly products.
Sweeps are coordinated by the European Commission and carried out yearly by national enforcement authorities in the EU, gathered in the Consumer Protection Cooperation Network (CPC). Information on previous sweeps can be found here.
This year’s sweep was not only coordinated with consumer enforcement authorities in Europe, but around the globe, under the umbrella of the International Consumer Protection and Enforcement Network (ICPEN). Today ICPEN are also releasing their results, which show similar trends.
The screening of websites with the focus on ‘greenwashing’ is one of several initiatives the Commission undertakes in order to empower consumers to make more sustainable choices. Another initiative is the Green Consumption Pledge which Commissioner Reynders launched on the 25th of January 2021 as well as a legislative proposal to empower consumers for the green transition with better information on products’ sustainability and better protection against certain practices, such as ‘greenwashing’ and early obsolescence. Furthermore, a legislative proposal on the substantiation of green claims based on the Environmental Footprint methods will follow.
As part of its Farm to Fork Strategy, the Commission will propose harmonised mandatory front-of-pack nutrition labelling to empower consumers to make informed, healthy, and sustainable food choices. For various household appliances, the EU energy label already provides a clear and simple indication of the energy efficiency of products, thus making it easier for consumers to save money on household energy bills while reducing greenhouse gas emissions across the EU.
According to a recent Consumer Market Monitoring Survey, 78% of consumers found the likely environmental impact of household appliances very important or fairly important when making their choice.
Compliments of the European Commission.
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IMF | Financial Perils in Check for Now, Eyes Turn to Risk of Market Correction

“The vaccines are here!”—the cry heard and welcomed the world over—has boosted hopes of a global economic recovery in 2021. Yet until vaccines are widely available, the market rally and the economic recovery rest on continued monetary and fiscal policy support.
‘While there is for now no alternative to continued monetary policy support, there are legitimate concerns around excessive risk-taking and market exuberance.’
Financial stability risks have been in check so far, but we cannot take this for granted.
Prices for stocks, corporate bonds, and other risk assets have risen higher on the news of vaccine rollouts. Financial markets have shrugged off rising COVID-19 cases, betting that continued policy support will offset any bad economic news in the short term and provide a bridge to the future. As the apparent disconnect between exuberant financial markets and the still-lagging economic recovery persists, it raises the specter of a possible market correction should investors reassess the economic outlook or the extent and duration of policy backstop.
Unwavering faith
Reflecting unprecedented policy support, financial conditions have eased significantly last year, reversing the sharp tightening experienced during the March 2020 turmoil in most countries, thus supporting economic growth.
Image courtesy of the IMF.
Despite rising COVID-19 cases, the stock prices of firms in sectors like airlines, hotel chains, and consumer services have rebounded as investors continue to move into these previously battered segments in search of good bargains. In advanced economies, credit spreads—the difference between yields on corporate bonds and comparable-maturity Treasury securities—have narrowed sharply both for higher- and lower-rated firms, close to or below levels that prevailed before COVID-19. Interest rates have reached record lows, lowering funding costs for firms, but also incentivizing investors to take on more risk as they search for higher returns on their investments.
Emerging-market countries and corporations have also benefited from the buoyant market sentiment, issuing bonds at record-high levels in 2020. Here too the difference between the yields on the sovereign and corporate debt of emerging-markets and U.S. Treasury securities has contracted sharply. And foreign investment in emerging-market financial assets (equities and bonds) has rebounded, providing more options for financing large debt-rollover needs in 2021.
Image courtesy of the IMF.
The surge of COVID-19 infections and the associated public health restrictions imposed by governments since late 2020 may hurt economic activity in many countries. Yet investors appear optimistic about growth prospects in 2021, confident that policymakers will backstop financial markets along the path to recovery.
Bifurcated reality
Various analysts and investors continue to raise concerns that the true value of risk assets like stocks and corporate bonds seems out of line with market value. For example, they point to misalignments between (very high) equity market prices and valuations implied by (still weak) economic fundamentals, especially when considering the sizable economic uncertainties.
Other market participants, however, note that current market valuations can be explained after accounting for the “lower-for-longer” interest-rate environment.
As justification for the equity market rally, they point to expectations of very low interest rates for the foreseeable future (despite the most recent rise in long-term rates in the United States) and to upward revisions in corporate earnings expectations since the vaccine announcements. They also mention the still relatively high volatility in equity markets as measured by the S&P500 VIX—a barometer of market sentiment—which one could expect to be lower if investors were indeed exuberant. Similar considerations about policy support have been made for credit markets.
Image courtesy of the IMF.
Policy support remains crucial
Policymakers should safeguard the progress made so far and build on the rollout of vaccines to return to sustainable growth by preserving monetary policy accommodation, ensuring liquidity support to households and firms, and keeping financial risks at bay.
Reducing or withdrawing support at this stage could jeopardize the global economic recovery.
Exuberance and Complacency—how serious is the risk of a market correction?
While there is for now no alternative to continued monetary policy support, there are legitimate concerns around excessive risk-taking and market exuberance. This situation creates a difficult dilemma for policymakers. They need to keep financial conditions easy to provide a bridge to vaccines and to the economic recovery. But they also need to safeguard the financial system against unintended consequences of their policies, while remaining in line with their mandates.
With investors betting on persistent policy backstop, a sense of complacency appears to be permeating markets; coupled with apparent uniform investor views, this raises the risk of a market correction or “repricing.” A sharp, sudden asset-price correction—for example, as a result of a persistent increase in interest rates—would cause a tightening of financial conditions. This could interact with existing financial vulnerabilities, creating knock-on effects on confidence and jeopardizing macro-financial stability.
Financial stability risks have been in check so far, but action is needed to address vulnerabilities exposed by the pandemic. These include rising corporate debt, fragilities in the nonbank financial institutions sector, increasing sovereign debt, market access concerns for some developing economies, and declining profitability in some banking systems.
Policymakers need to use this time to safeguard financial stability by employing macroprudential measures (for example, stricter supervisory and macroprudential oversight, including targeted stress tests at banks and prudential tools for highly levered borrowers) and developing new tools as needed. For example, policymakers are considering whether the macroprudential framework for nonbank financial institutions may need to be strengthened to address weaknesses that became apparent during the March turmoil.
Tackling vulnerabilities through these policies is crucial to avoid putting economic growth at risk and to prevent financial instability from disrupting the global economy.
Authors:

Tobias Adrian, Financial Counsellor and Director of the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Fabio Natalucci, Deputy Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department at the IMF.

Compliments of the IMF.
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Statement by the Eurogroup President, Paschal Donohoe, on the signature of ESM Treaty and the Single Resolution Fund Amending Agreements

Eurogroup | Statements and remarks by Paschal Donohoe | 27 January 2021 |
Today, we mark an important milestone in the further development of the Economic and Monetary Union, which will strengthen euro area’s crisis prevention and resolution capabilities as well as the Banking Union. We also demonstrate our unity of purpose to deliver progress on important issues for the benefit of all our citizens.
Representatives from the Member States have signed the amending agreements to the Treaty on the European Stability Mechanism and the Single Resolution Fund Intergovernmental Agreement[1]. This signature launches the ratification procedures in the Member States, in accordance with their national constitutional requirements.
On 30 November 2020, the Eurogroup reached a political agreement in relation to the ESM reform package. The agreement will make the ESM more effective and flexible. This includes the ESM providing a common backstop to the Single Resolution Fund by means of a credit line as of the beginning of 2022, two years ahead of schedule. The decision taken by Eurogroup regarding the early introduction of the backstop recognises the considerable efforts by the European banking sector, supervisors, and Member States in significantly improving all risk reduction indicators during recent years.
The common backstop will help to ensure that a bank failure does not harm the broader economy or cause financial instability. It will be financed by contributions from the banking sector and not by taxpayers’ money, thereby reducing the link between banks and sovereigns in the Banking Union.
The ESM Treaty reform will expand the ESM’s mandate with new tasks and responsibilities: it will be equipped with a more accessible precautionary credit line and have a stronger role in financial assistance programmes and crisis prevention. Together with the early introduction of the common backstop, this will help to ensure that the euro area is capable of handling challenges if they arise.
I look forward to the completion of national ratification procedures to allow the entry into force of both agreements as of next year.
Compliments of the Council of the European Union.
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Travel restrictions: EU Council reviews the list of third countries for which member states should gradually lift restrictions on non-essential travel

Following a review under the recommendation on the gradual lifting of the temporary restrictions on non-essential travel into the EU, the Council updated the list of countries for which travel restrictions should be lifted. As stipulated in the Council recommendation, this list will continue to be reviewed every two weeks and, as the case may be, updated.
Based on the criteria and conditions set out in the recommendation, as from 28 January member states should gradually lift the travel restrictions at the external borders for residents of the following third countries:

Australia
New Zealand
Rwanda
Singapore
South Korea
Thailand

China, subject to confirmation of reciprocity

Travel restrictions should also be gradually lifted for the special administrative regions of China Hong Kong and  Macao, subject to confirmation of reciprocity.
Residents of Andorra, Monaco, San Marino and the Vatican should be considered as EU residents for the purpose of this recommendation.
The criteria to determine the third countries for which the current travel restriction should be lifted cover in particular the epidemiological situation and containment measures, including physical distancing, as well as economic and social considerations. They are applied cumulatively. Reciprocity should also be taken into account regularly and on a case-by-case basis.
Schengen associated countries (Iceland, Lichtenstein, Norway, Switzerland) also take part in this recommendation.
Background
On 16 March 2020, the Commission adopted a communication recommending a temporary restriction of all non-essential travel from third countries into the EU for one month. EU heads of state or government agreed to implement this restriction on 17 March. The travel restriction was extended for a further month respectively on 8 April 2020 and 8 May 2020.
On 11 June the Commission adopted a communication recommending the further extension of the restriction until 30 June 2020 and setting out an approach for a gradual lifting of the restriction on non-essential travel into the EU as of 1 July 2020.
On 30 June the Council adopted a recommendation on the gradual lifting of the temporary restrictions on non-essential travel into the EU, including an initial list of countries for which member states should start lifting the travel restrictions at the external borders. The list is reviewed every two weeks and, as the case may be, updated.
The Council recommendation is not a legally binding instrument. The authorities of the member states remain responsible for implementing the content of the recommendation. They may, in full transparency, lift only progressively travel restrictions towards countries listed.
A Member State should not decide to lift the travel restrictions for non-listed third countries before this has been decided in a coordinated manner.
Contact:

Verónica Huertas Cerdeira, Press officer | veronica.huertas-cerdeira@consilium.europa.eu

Compliments of the Council of the European Union.
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OECD | Food systems face a daunting triple challenge requiring governments to take a more holistic approach

Food systems face the triple challenge of providing food security and nutrition for a growing global population, and livelihoods to farmers and others working in food supply chains around the world, all while improving environmental sustainability.
Given the deep connections between these objectives, governments can do much more to take into account the synergies and trade-offs that exist between the different areas, as well as the challenges for developing more coherent policy, according to a new OECD report.
Making Better Policies for Food Systems brings together decades of OECD research and policy recommendations on food systems. The report underlines the long track record providing data, evidence and policy recommendations on topics ranging from agricultural productivity and trade to obesity, water use, rural development and global value chains. It notes that these and other topics were usually considered in isolation, rather than as components of wider food systems policies.
The centrality of food systems for the Sustainable Development Goals has led the UN to convene a Food Systems Summit in September 2021. Development of a new “food systems approach,” capable of simultaneously making progress on the three dimensions of food security/nutrition, livelihoods and environmental sustainability, will require better coordination between policy makers in a range of sectors, including  agriculture, fisheries, environment and public health, according to the OECD report.
This new approach will require policymakers to take a holistic view on food system objectives, as well as new efforts to avoid incoherent policies. In practice, this would mean that agricultural policymakers – who have traditionally focussed on agricultural production – would place a greater emphasis on the possible effects of farm policies on nutritional and environmental outcomes. Similarly, where environmental problems related to agriculture have in the past been addressed through agri-environmental policies, a food systems approach opens the possibility to use other instruments, such as those that promote changes in consumer or enterprise behaviour.
A food systems-based approach recognises the complexity of potential synergies and trade-offs between food security and nutrition, livelihoods and environmental sustainability. Rising demand for some food products may benefit producers in poor countries while simultaneously bringing negative environmental consequences. Changes in food prices may benefit producers while harming poorer consumers. Conditions vary enormously between smallholder farmers in developing countries, those doing extensive grazing-based farming and high-tech farmers in advanced economies.
This complexity will require tailored and multi-dimensional policies, based on robust, evidence-based and inclusive policy processes. The OECD highlights the clear need to reform agricultural and fisheries support policies that are the most distorting and which create negative environmental effects. Beyond that, making better policies for food systems will require overcoming disagreements on facts, but also diverging interests and differing values among stakeholders, according to the report.
Case studies on the seed sector, the ruminant livestock sector and the processed food sector provide in-depth discussion of how each can help address the triple challenge, the synergies and trade-offs that exist, as well as the differing policy processes that have been used in various countries.
The report focuses on three linked areas:

the actual performance of food systems, and  the role of policy;
how policymakers can design food systems policies taking into account the three dimensions of food security/nutrition, livelihoods and environmental sustainability; and
the common factors complicating efforts to design better food system policies, and potential solutions.

For further information on OECD work on food systems go to: www.oecd.org/food-systems.
Contact:

Lawrence Speer in the OECD Media Office  | Lawrence.Speer@oecd.org

Compliments of the OECD.
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ECB | Interview with SKAI TV: Looking past the pandemic

Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Elena Laskari on 26 January 2021 |
Euro area economies are still under pressure because of the second wave of the pandemic and it is still unclear if we are closer to the end of the tunnel or closer to a third wave. According to the ECB’s forecasts, how many years will it take for our economies to heal the scars of the pandemic and return to where they were in 2019?
There’s no doubt that in the near term it’s a difficult situation. Many parts of the European economy are under some kind of lockdown measure right now, but we think this is maybe more delaying the recovery rather than posing a major long-term problem. So, we still think that by the middle of next year, so maybe towards the end of the summer of 2022, we will have returned to 2019 levels of GDP. I think it’s important to say that this year will be a year where initially, right now, there are lots of restrictions. But over the course of the year, as the vaccination programmes are rolled out, we think the economy can grow quite quickly. So there will be a lot of recovery later this year and next year. I should emphasise that even if the overall economy does recover, not every sector will recover in the same way. So there will be scars in some sectors of the economy.
Until 2022, right?
Right, so another year, year-and-a-half.
Do these projections include Greece as well?
What I’m focusing on there is the overall European aggregate picture, but at this point the pandemic is fairly common, fairly general across countries. Now, of course, for economies like Greece for example, the recovery will be heavily dependent on the recovery of tourism. But again, this depends on the speed of the vaccination campaign.
Will the recovery be an easy process? Is there a risk of a new financial crisis following the pandemic?
It’s very important to emphasise that we think there will be a lot of momentum, so we will see a strong growth rate later this year and next year because essentially the pandemic is an artificial type of recession. We know that much of the recession is because we have to suspend normal economic activity. When that suspension is over there can be a strong recovery. But as I mentioned to you, if you have been losing income in this period because your restaurant, your hotel or your service industry has been compromised, that income is a loss to you. But in terms of the recovery, in terms of the recovery of demand, we do think it will be a significant recovery later this year and into next year.
But at the same time we’re witnessing a rally in the stock markets while the real economy is suffering and banks risk facing an “explosion” of non-performing loans. Do you think that stock markets are “irrationally exuberant”?
First of all, let me say that I am not an investment adviser, so I don’t take a stance on whether markets are correctly pricing the value of stocks. But again, this returns to my basic point here. We have another year, year-and-a-half of this pandemic. But from the point of view of the stock markets, they look forward, not just to this year and next year, but many years into the future. So the stock markets are confident that there will be a recovery later this year and next year. On the point you mentioned about non-performing loans: of course, we do think there will be an increase. But to respond to your general question about the issue of the financial crisis: so much has been done. So much has been done by governments in terms of all sorts of subsidy programmes. We are maintaining favourable financing conditions at the ECB. A lot has been done, measures have been taken to counteract that risk, so I would not be disproportionately concerned about the financial damage of this pandemic.
Regarding Greece, the end of the pandemic will find the country with a debt-to-GDP ratio of more than 200 per cent and possibly still without an investment grade. Do you think that, after almost ten years of economic crisis and adjustment programmes here in Greece, we will need a new programme? And how would this relate to the ECB’s pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)?
I think the overriding point is that the increase in public debt is everywhere. There’s a large increase in public debt across the world. First of all, the most important point to mention is that this has been necessary. It has been inescapable that in a pandemic the government has to do a lot. In that context, I think there’s a very natural reason why public debt has increased. And what we see is a low interest rate environment. So the ability to finance this debt, the ability to service this debt – we think even at high debt levels – is much easier than before. That does not remove the longer-term issue that high debt levels will need careful monitoring. But they will be more easily managed over the long term because the more quickly the economy grows, the more reforms are introduced over time to support a fast-growing economy. This is why the Next Generation EU plan is so important. There’s now a common European initiative with common funding to support an acceleration of digitalisation and the green economy, and many initiatives that will support a faster-growing European economy.
Last March, Mario Draghi wrote in the “Financial Times” that we are facing a war, and that wars are financed by increases in public debt. That is what we are seeing; that’s what’s happening. Do you think that the return to normality could or should include the cancellation of debts – private, as Mr Draghi has suggested, and/or public, as some others are saying?
Let me emphasise that a little bit. So much has happened since then in terms of the amount of support offered by governments in order to make sure that firms and households are supported as far as possible during this pandemic. So, if you like, the prospect of a lot of unsustainable debt in the private sector has been curtailed by the amount of fiscal support. Then, let me go back to what I said already. The most important issue is that in a world of very low interest rates the capacity to manage this debt is much greater than was maybe envisaged last March. Of course, again, to reiterate the bottom line: the cancellation of public debt is not part of the Treaty for the ECB. More generally, I think the focus should be on re-emphasising the importance of the roles of the governments at this point, the importance of the EU common funding which we have in place, the importance of accelerating growth rates after the pandemic, and to put all of that in the context of this, as you say, really large event, like a war. It’s temporary. We know it’s only going to last another year, year-and-a-half in terms of its main economic impact and therefore these extraordinary measures can be sustained, because it’s only for a relatively brief period of time compared with the normal business cycle or financial cycle.
Compliment of the European Central Bank.
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Biden’s presidency begins: a fresh start for the US but also for transatlantic relations

Blog post by HR/VP Josep Borrell |
The inauguration of Joe Biden opens a welcome new chapter in EU-US relations. As President Biden has signalled, there is much to repair and rebuild, both at home and abroad. But this is above all a moment of opportunity. We as EU are ready to revive our partnership, which is so important at a time of tumultuous global change.
Like millions of people around the world, I followed President Biden’s inaugural address. Naturally, the President focused his speech principally on how to heal a divided nation, how to bring Americans back together and cope with the pandemic crisis by building back better. However, looking beyond America, he also announced that the US will “lead, not merely by the example of our power, but by the power of our example” and vowed to “repair our alliances and engage with the world once again”.
“The transatlantic partnership has shaped international relations and global order more than any other relationship. It is our most strategic relationship.”
The EU is ready for that: we have a unique opportunity to work together again to tackle a variety of global challenges. Even during the turbulence and challenges of the Trump administration, the truth remained: the transatlantic partnership, which more than any other relationship has shaped international relations and global order. It is our most strategic relationship, being not only indispensable for security and prosperity in the transatlantic area, but also to sustain a world order anchored in democracy, the rule of law and multilateralism.
‘Making multilateralism great again’
The President underlined that the US will “be a strong and trusted partner for peace, progress and security”. Europe wants it closest partner back at the world’s table. The EU and US must pull in the same direction when it comes to resolving the growing number of conflicts and geopolitical tensions, to define common standards and norms for the 21st century, and to work on shaping and strengthening the multilateral system. I look forward to work with State Secretary Blinken, who has also already vowed a new era of international cooperation. Let’s work together in making multilateralism great again.
A reinforced transatlantic partnership is key for global change
Together with the European Commission, I put forward a comprehensive “EU-US agenda for global change”, which spans four broad areas: green leadership, the COVID-19 response and global health, trade and technology, and global action and security.
“The world needs American and European leadership in the battle against the COVID-19 pandemic and shaping the global recovery.”
In the coming weeks and months, the focus on both sides of the Atlantic will be on tackling the COVID-19 pandemic and ensuring a solid pathway to global recovery. The world needs American and European leadership in this battle and I am very happy that President Biden has already signed an executive order reversing the decision to leave the World Health Organization (WHO) and that the US has announced yesterday to sign up to the WHO’s international vaccine-sharing Covax programme. We look forward to work with the new administration on fighting the pandemic and shaping the recovery. At all levels: be it government to government, but also business, civil society, and scientists. It is already underway: the first vaccine used in the US and the EU is a “transatlantic product”, developed by a joint venture between a German and a US company.
We can all see how the pandemic and the related economic downturn also provide a perfect breeding ground for populism, radical ideas, and consequently divisions and social unrest. The assault on 6 January storm on the Capitol was a wake-up call for all democracy advocates around the world. Indeed, as President Biden said, “we have learned again that democracy is precious, democracy is fragile”. We must fight disinformation and inequalities and ensure that our democratic narrative prevails. It is urgent that both the EU and the US take concrete steps to stem the rise in authoritarianism, corruption and human rights abuses.
US re-joining the Paris Agreement and addressing the climate crisis
The decision of President Biden to re-join the Paris climate agreement is fundamental. Working together on the climate crisis is at the forefront of our agenda: today, we – EU Foreign Ministers and my colleague Executive Vice-President Frans Timmermans – already held a video conference with the new US Climate Envoy John Kerry and discussed how the EU and the new US administration can cooperate again in the global fight against climate change.
“The decision of President Biden to re-join the Paris climate agreement is fundamental.”
The EU proposes to establish a comprehensive transatlantic ‘green agenda’, to mobilise more ambitious global climate action, starting with a joint commitment to net-zero emissions by 2050. For this, we need in particular to work on measures to build a green technology alliance; phase out fossil fuels; avoid carbon leakage; develop a global regulatory framework for sustainable finance; help poorer countries to adapt to climate change and pursue a joint leadership in the fight against deforestation. We have much to do together and we have no time to waste.
The global order, peace and security
There can be no doubt that the US plays an essential role in the maintenance of peace and security, and also in European security. Indeed, in many places on our continent and at our borders, we need to work together to get sustainable results, from the Western Balkans, to the Eastern Mediterranean to Ukraine and beyond. As global partners, we will have to deepen our dialogue and cooperation in all areas, including on reviving the Iran nuclear deal and the broader area of non-proliferation and arms control. In addition, we will soon begin a dialogue to discuss the full range of issues related to China. We will also look at opportunities for cooperation across the globe where our interests coincide.

“A strong and capable Europe is not a rival to the trans-Atlantic alliance but a precondition for it.”

Many US administrations have insisted that Europe increases its defence efforts to take better care of its own security and act as a security provider. So it matters that we are already actively working to strengthen EU defence policies, capacities and operations. Our flagship defence initiatives now include the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), the European Defence Fund (EDF) and military mobility. Indeed, a strong and capable Europe is not a rival to the trans-Atlantic alliance but a precondition for it.
Reinforcing defence capabilities of EU member states strengthen the Alliance and contribute to transatlantic burden-sharing. A more assertive, more capable and resilient Europe is the best partner for the US. Enhancing Europe’s security role will allow for a better cooperation with the US when it comes to the security risks of today and those of the future. It is clear that we have much to gain from close cooperation with the US to address pressing security challenges, from cyber security to hybrid threats, protecting our critical infrastructure and the security implications of climate change. We should certainly be ambitious in this area.
While we step up cooperation, we should be mindful that the experience of the last four year have left their toll on European public opinion. Indeed a clear majority of Europeans, as explained in a recent ECFR report(link is external), now believe that even under President Biden, the US will be mostly consumed with healing internal divisions and will have little capacity or will to help solve global problems. And there are underlying reasons—demographic, economic, and political—why the historical trajectory of the United States and Europe could well diverge. However, we appreciate that at least for the next four years there will be a US President who believes in partnership with democratic allies. And we don’t just feel appreciation for this restoration, but we recognize its necessity.
Working together on technology, trade and standards
Technology issues are now part of foreign policy. That’s why the rapid technological change in front of us gives us a window of opportunity to develop a joint EU-US strategic ‘high tech agenda’. We want to cooperate on devising clear rules and their enforcement on the responsibility of online platforms and Big Tech, work together on fair taxation and market distortions, and develop a common normative approach to the future development of key technologies. Let us in the ‘tech democracies’ provide a response to these challenges before it is too late.
In sum, the list of challenges we face is long. And sometimes differences in views between us will persist. That is normal. However, with Biden, the tone and basic posture is changing. In diplomacy, that matters a lot. C’est le ton qui fait la musique, as they say in French. Let’s get to work and rebuild our alliance for democracy, prosperity, global security and a better and more stable world.
Compliments of the Delegation of the European Union to the United States.
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EU Commission study finds positive impact of trade agreements on agri-food sectors

The EU trade agenda is set to have an overall positive impact on the EU economy and the agri-food sector, according to a new study published today. Trade agreements are due to result in substantial increases in EU agri-food exports, with more limited increases in imports, creating a positive trade balance overall. The study also confirms that the EU’s approach to grant a limited amount of lower duty imports (through tariff rate quotas) is the best approach in terms of protecting specific vulnerable agri-food sectors in the EU.
The study carried out by the Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) covers the cumulative effects of 12 trade agreements on the agri-food sector by 2030, an update of a 2016 study. A theoretical modelling exercise, the study includes trade results for the agricultural sector as a whole, and sector-specific impacts on trade, producer prices and production volumes.
Commenting on the study, Executive Vice-President responsible for trade Valdis Dombrovskis said: “The EU has always stood for open and fair trade which has enormously benefitted our economy, including agricultural producers. This study shows that we have been able to strike the right balance between offering more export opportunities to EU farmers, while protecting them from potential harmful effects of increased imports. Supporting the EU agri-food sector will continue to be a key element of the EU’s trade policy, be it through market opening, protecting traditional EU food products or defending it against dumping or other forms of unfair trade.”
Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski said: “The success of EU agricultural trade reflects the competitiveness of our sector. Reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy have highly contributed to this, supported by a global reputation of EU products as being safe, sustainably produced, nutritious and of high quality. This study, with more positive results than in 2016, confirms that our ambitious trade agenda helps EU farmers and food producers take full advantage of opportunities abroad while making sure we have sufficient safeguards in place for the most sensitive sectors.”
The study covers free trade agreements (FTAs) recently concluded or implemented by the EU, as well as trade agreements on the EU agenda. It includes two scenarios, an ambitious one (full tariff liberalisation of 98.5% of all products, and a partial tariff cut of 50% for the remaining products) and a more conservative one (full liberalisation of 97%, and 25% tariff cut for the others). In addition, included in the scenarios, the five concluded FTAs are modelled on the basis of the negotiated outcome. The results of the scenarios are both compared to a reference scenario of business as usual in 2030. Environmental and climate effects do not fall within the scope of today’s study, including any Green Deal related initiatives. The Sustainability Impact Assessments prepared in support of trade negotiations already provide the Commission with an in-depth analysis of the potential economic, social, human rights, and environmental impacts .
Main findings
Throughout the study, findings are for 2030, with the different scenarios compared to the reference scenario of business as usual.
For both scenarios, the results show a positive impact on the EU agri-food trade balance by 2030. While EU trade partners gain market access in the EU, it also allows EU exports to grow significantly. EU agri-food exports to the 12 FTA partners are set to increase by 25% (conservative scenario) and by 29% (ambitious scenario), while imports increase by 10% (conservative) and by 13% (ambitious), both compared to the reference scenario. This corresponds to the EU total agri-food exports increasing by €4.7 billion (conservative) and by €5.5 billion (ambitious), and total agri-food imports by €3.7 billion (conservative) and €4.7 billion (ambitious).
The study confirms that the EU agricultural sector can benefit from the EU trade agenda. A comparison of the 2016 versus 2021 cumulative impact studies shows the effectiveness of tariff rate quotas in mitigating impacts on our sensitive sectors such as beef, rice or sugar. In fact, the 2016 study already informed the strategy towards Mercosur and this update can be used as an evidence base for the need for Tariff Rate Quotas in ongoing trade negotiations. Furthermore, an ambitious future Common Agriculture Policy, supporting innovation, sustainability and the competitiveness of the EU farming sector, can also contribute to minimise any negative outcomes of trade negotiations while reinforcing the positive ones.
More details on the economic assessment is available in the study, including information about the methodology and caveats.
The outcome of the study was presented yesterday to EU Ministers at the AGRIFISH Council and presented today at the European Parliament’s Committee on Agriculture and rural development.
Compliments of the European Commission.
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