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ECB | Luis de Guindos: Banking union: achievements and challenges

Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the High-level conference on “Strengthening the EU’s bank crisis management and deposit insurance framework: for a more resilient and efficient banking union” organised by the European Commission |

Setting up the banking union was a crucial step in ensuring the stability of the euro area financial system and strengthening Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The global financial crisis and sovereign debt crisis highlighted the need to make faster progress towards completing EMU. More than a decade on, now is a good time to take stock of where we stand in the banking union: what we have achieved and what works, but also what remains to be done.
With ECB Banking Supervision at the heart of the Single Supervisory Mechanism, we have an authority responsible for ensuring the safety and soundness of the European banking system, promoting financial integration, and ensuring consistent supervision by fostering harmonised practices based on high supervisory standards.
The Single Resolution Mechanism continues to be strengthened, both through the build-up of the Single Resolution Fund, which will reach its target by the end of 2023[1], and through the recent agreement on a backstop provided by the European Stability Mechanism.
The implementation of these two pillars represents a milestone in European integration and a major success for financial stability. But in terms of completing the banking union we are not there yet. Today, I will focus on three areas for improvement. First, the final pillar: the European Deposit Insurance Scheme (EDIS). Second, in the field of crisis management, the tools for dealing with the failure of smaller and deposit-funded banks. And third, the role of macroprudential policy and how it can help us deal with shocks to the financial system.
Almost six years on from the European Commission’s first proposal on EDIS, deposit insurance is still at the national level and there has been little ambition to change it. This is problematic as the level of confidence in the safety of bank deposits may differ across Member States. So long as deposit insurance remains at the national level, the link between a bank and its home sovereign persists.
The ECB has been a staunch supporter of EDIS from the beginning and supports pursuing a fully fledged EDIS as a key priority. But we have not yet seen sufficient political will to implement this third pillar of the banking union. Member States are currently discussing a model for the transition period, a “hybrid model” that offers liquidity support to national schemes as a first step.
In my view, this hybrid model could be a possible compromise way forward, as long as an EDIS with full risk-sharing, covering both liquidity needs and losses in the steady state, remains the end goal.
Turning to my second point, in our quest to address some banks being “too big to fail” we have created a dedicated architecture for the crisis management of larger and cross-border banks. But less attention has been devoted to the tools for managing crises in small and medium-sized banks. The assumption was that the failure of such banks would not raise financial stability concerns and could be dealt with under national liquidation procedures.
Unfortunately, experience has shown that this assumption is not completely accurate. Smaller and medium-sized banks, in particular deposit-funded banks, have less dedicated loss absorption capacity. The failure of such banks can lead to losses for depositors, which is challenging for depositor confidence and financial stability.
The significant differences in national legal regimes for the liquidation of banks make the issue even more challenging. In one Member State, depositors may find on a Monday morning that their deposits were transferred to an acquiring bank over the weekend and they can continue to access their deposits as if nothing had happened. In another Member State, this type of best practice transfer tool may not be available. Covered depositors must wait for a pay-out by their national deposit guarantee scheme. And uncovered depositors may have to bear losses.
These differences create an uneven playing field for bank customers and can prevent failing banks from exiting the market smoothly. A solution would be to create a common European liquidation tool, following the best practice example of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) in the United States.
Addressing crisis situations is not only about failing banks and deposit insurance. It is also about the financial system’s ability to absorb shocks and avoid excessive deleveraging when losses materialise which exacerbate the negative shocks to the real economy. This brings me to my third and final point: the need for a more effective and centralised macroprudential policy in the euro area. Let me explain.
Macroprudential policy and monetary policy strongly complement each other. For instance, during phases of risk build-up, effective macroprudential policy can remove the burden from monetary policy with respect to financial stability concerns. Similarly, in times of crisis when risks materialise, capital buffers that can be released by authorities can support monetary policy via their impact on the supply of credit from banks.
While the system had ample structural buffers at the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis, buffers that could be released – like the countercyclical capital buffer – accounted for only 0.2% of risk-weighted assets at the end of 2019. This imbalance between structural and releasable buffers has gained more attention in the macroprudential debate since the beginning of the pandemic. There is growing consensus on the need to reassess the current balance between structural and releasable buffers and to create what I would call macroprudential space that could be used in a system-wide crisis.
I would like to suggest three guiding principles. First, the creation of macroprudential space should be capital-neutral. In other words, we should amend or rebalance certain existing buffer requirements rather than creating additional buffer requirements. Second, we need strong governance to ensure that capital buffers are released (and subsequently replenished) in a consistent and predictable way across countries in the face of severe, system-wide economic stress. Centralising macroprudential action at the euro area-level, based on a clear objective framework, could foster a timely policy response and reduce fragmentation across national borders. And third, the creation of macroprudential space should not modify national authorities’ existing macroprudential responsibilities and competences as allocated within the current regulatory framework.
Let me conclude. We have come a long way on the path to completing the banking union. But we are not there yet. What remains to be done is ambitious. But it is ambitious and achievable. When the pandemic crisis struck this time last year, the joint European response revealed the strength of a united Europe that can react and move forwards swiftly. Let us seize this moment and this opportunity to improve.

Compliments of the European Central Bank.
The post ECB | Luis de Guindos: Banking union: achievements and challenges first appeared on European American Chamber of Commerce New York [EACCNY] | Your Partner for Transatlantic Business Resources.

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Coronavirus: EU Commission proposes a Digital Green Certificate

Today the European Commission is proposing to create a Digital Green Certificate to facilitate safe free movement inside the EU during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Digital Green Certificate will be a proof that a person has been vaccinated against COVID-19, received a negative test result or recovered from COVID-19. It will be available, free of charge, in digital or paper format. It will include a QR code to ensure security and authenticity of the certificate. The Commission will build a gateway to ensure all certificates can be verified across the EU, and support Member States in the technical implementation of certificates. Member States remain responsible to decide which public health restrictions can be waived for travellers but will have to apply such waivers in the same way to travellers holding a Digital Green Certificate.
Vice-President for Values and Transparency, Věra Jourová said: “The Digital Green Certificate offers an EU-wide solution to ensure that EU citizens benefit from a harmonised digital tool to support free movement in the EU. This is a good message in support of recovery. Our key objectives are to offer an easy to use, non-discriminatory and secure tool that fully respects data protection. And we continue working towards international convergence with other partners.”
Commissioner for Justice, Didier Reynders, said: “With the Digital Green Certificate, we are taking a European approach to ensure EU citizens and their family members can travel safely and with minimum restrictions this summer. The Digital Green Certificate will not be a pre-condition to free movement and it will not discriminate in any way. A common EU-approach will not only help us to gradually restore free movement within the EU and avoid fragmentation. It is also a chance to influence global standards and lead by example based on our European values like data protection.”
Key elements of the regulation proposed by the Commission today:
1. Accessible and secure certificates for all EU citizens:

The Digital Green Certificate will cover three types of certificates –vaccination certificates, test certificates (NAAT/RT-PCR test or a rapid antigen test), and certificates for persons who have recovered from COVID-19.

The certificates will be issued in a digital form or on paper. Both will have a QR code that contains necessary key information as well as a digital signature to make sure the certificate is authentic.

The Commission will build a gateway and support Member States to develop software that authorities can use to verify all certificate signatures across the EU. No personal data of the certificate holders passes through the gateway, or is retained by the verifying Member State.

The certificates will be available free of charge and in the official language or languages of the issuing Member State and English.

2. Non-discrimination:

All people – vaccinated and non-vaccinated – should benefit from a Digital Green Certificate when travelling in the EU. To prevent discrimination against individuals who are not vaccinated, the Commission proposes to create not only an interoperable vaccination certificate, but also COVID-19 test certificates and certificates for persons who have recovered from COVID-19.

Same right for travellers with the Digital Green Certificate –where Member States accept proof of vaccination to waive certain public health restrictions such as testing or quarantine, they would be required to accept, under the same conditions, vaccination certificates issued under the Digital Green Certificate system. This obligation would be limited to vaccines that have received EU-wide marketing authorisation, but Member States can decide to accept other vaccines in addition.

Notification of other measures – if a Member State continues to require holders of a Digital Green Certificate to quarantine or test, it must notify the Commission and all other Member States and explain the reasons for such measures.

3. Only essential information and secure personal data:

The certificates will include a limited set of information such as name, date of birth, date of issuance, relevant information about vaccine/test/recovery and a unique identifier of the certificate. This data can be checked only to confirm and verify the authenticity and validity of certificates.

The Digital Green Certificate will be valid in all EU Member States and open for Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway as well as Switzerland. The Digital Green Certificate should be issued to EU citizens and their family members, regardless of their nationality. It should also be issued to non-EU nationals who reside in the EU and to visitors who have the right to travel to other Member States.
The Digital Green Certificate system is a temporary measure. It will be suspended once the World Health Organization (WHO) declares the end of the COVID-19 international health emergency.
Next Steps
To be ready before the summer, this proposal needs a swift adoption by the European Parliament and the Council.
In parallel, Member States must implement the trust framework and technical standards, agreed in the eHealth network, to ensure timely implementation of the Digital Green Certificate, their interoperability and full compliance with personal data protection. The aim is to have the technical work and the proposal completed in the coming months.
Background
To comply with the measures to limit the spread of the coronavirus, travellers in the EU have been asked to provide various documents, such as medical certificates, test results, or declarations. The absence of standardised formats has resulted in travellers experiencing problems when moving within the EU. There have also been reports of fraudulent or forged documents.
In their statement adopted following the informal video conferences on 25 and 26 February 2021, the members of the European Council called for work to continue on a common approach to vaccination certificates. The Commission has been working with the Member States in the eHealth Network, a voluntary network connecting national authorities responsible for eHealth, on preparing the interoperability of vaccination certificates. Guidelines were adopted on 27 January and updated on 12 March, and the trust framework outline was agreed on 12 March 2021.
Today the Commission adopted a legislative proposal establishing a common framework for a Digital Green Certificate. The Commission also adopted a complementary proposal to ensure that the Digital Green Certificate is also issued to non-EU nationals who reside in Member States or Schengen Associated States and to visitors who have the right to travel to other Member States. Separate proposals to cover citizens and non-EU citizens are necessary for legal reasons; there is no difference in treatment of citizens and eligible non-EU citizens for the purpose of the certificates.
The latest information on coronavirus measures as well as travel restrictions provided to us by Member States are available on the Re-open EU platform.
Compliments of the European Commission.
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ESMA sees high risk for investors in non-regulated crypto assets

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), the EU securities markets regulator, today publishes its first Trends, Risks and Vulnerabilities (TRV) Report of 2021. The Report analyses the impact of COVID-19 on financial markets during the second half of 2020 and highlights the increasing credit risks linked to significant corporate and public debt overhang, as well as the risks linked with investments in non-regulated crypto-assets.
Continued high risk across financial markets
Globally, risks in markets under ESMA’s remit remain very high. The significant rebound of equity markets and the valuation of debt indices which reached pre-pandemic levels, contrast with weak economic fundamentals. The main risk for European Union’s (EU) financial markets is that this ongoing decoupling leads to a reversal in investor risk assessment and a sudden market correction.
Crypto-assets: ESAs remind consumers about risks
As crypto-assets, including so-called virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, continue to attract public attention, the European Supervisory Authorities (EBA, EIOPA and ESMA – together the ‘ESAs’) recall the continued relevance of their previous warnings.
The ESAs remind consumers that some crypto-assets are highly risky and speculative and, as stated in the ESAs’ February 2018 joint warning, consumers must be alert to the high risks of buying and/or holding these instruments, including the possibility of losing all their money.
Additionally, crypto-assets come in many forms but the majority of them remain unregulated in the EU. This means that consumers buying and/or holding these instruments do not benefit from the guarantees and safeguards associated with regulated financial services.
In September 2020, the European Commission presented a legislative proposal for a regulation on markets in crypto-assets. Consumers are reminded that the proposal remains subject to the outcome of the co-legislative process and so consumers do not currently benefit from any of the safeguards foreseen in that proposal because it is not yet EU law.
Brexit is changing the trading landscape
The preparedness of market participants ensured that the end of the UK transition period had no discernible stability impact on securities markets. However, the implementation of the EU share trading obligation (STO) is changing the European trading landscape. In 2020 43% of shares with a legal entity in the EEA were traded on UK venues, and a large part of them fall under the STO. ESMA has analysed the evolution of trading between December 2020 and January 2021, and sees that the expected shift in trading domicile occurred in January. Most on-exchange trading moved to EU venues, with the share of lit trading on EU venues increasing to 96% in January, and auction trading to 93%.
Focus on risks for financial stability and investors
In its risk analysis, ESMA provides five in-depth articles looking at sustainable finance and particular market vulnerabilities during the Covid-19 crises:

Vulnerabilities in money market funds: This article uses evidence from the market stress during March 2020 to provide insights on EU money market fund vulnerability to liquidity risk and the impact of regulatory requirements;

Fund portfolio network, a climate risk perspective: Within the European financial sector, investment funds are considered to have the largest exposure to climate sensitive economic sectors such as utilities, transport, and fossil fuels extraction. This article is a first attempt at a climate-related financial risk assessment of EU funds;

Stress simulation in the context of COVID-19: During March 2020 investment funds faced a combination of significant deterioration in liquidity in some segments of the fixed income markets, combined with large-scale investment outflows from investors. Based on data from these events ESMA assesses fund preparedness to future liquidity shocks, involving a Stress Simulation exercise (STRESI);

54,000 PRIIPs KIDs – How to read them (all): European retail investors now receive more information than ever, and it can be challenging both for investors and supervisors to properly exploit and assess all this information. This article —an application of SupTech— aims to illustrate how these techniques can produce useful measures for European supervisors, policymakers, and risk analysts; and

ESG ratings: As sustainable investing gains traction, environmental, social and governance (ESG) ratings are growing in importance for investors and issuers. This article describes the market for ESG ratings, including types of ratings and key providers, and presents several use cases.

Contact:

Solveig Kleiveland, Senior Communications Officer | press@esma.europa.eu

Compliments of the European Securities and Markets Authority.
The post ESMA sees high risk for investors in non-regulated crypto assets first appeared on European American Chamber of Commerce New York [EACCNY] | Your Partner for Transatlantic Business Resources.

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EU Commission disburses further €9 billion under SURE to seven Member States

The European Commission has disbursed today €9 billion to seven EU Member States in the fifth installment of financial support to Member States under the SURE instrument. This is the second disbursement in 2021. As part of today’s operations, Czechia has received €1 billion, Spain €2.87 billion, Croatia €510 million, Italy €3.87 billion, Lithuania €302 million, Malta €123 million and Slovakia €330 million. This is the first time that Czechia has received funding under the instrument. The other six EU countries have already benefitted from loans under SURE.
These loans will assist Member States in addressing sudden increases in public expenditure to preserve employment. Specifically, they will help Member States cover the costs directly related to the financing of national short-time work schemes, and other similar measures that they have put in place as a response to the coronavirus pandemic, including for the self-employed. Today’s disbursements follow the issuance of the fifth social bond under the EU SURE instrument, which attracted a considerable interest by investors.
So far, 16 Member States have received a total of €62.5 billion under the SURE instrument in back-to-back loans. Throughout 2021, the Commission will seek to raise in addition over €25 billion through the issuance of EU SURE bonds.
Once all SURE disbursements have been completed, Czechia will have received €2 billion, Spain €21.3 billion, Croatia €1 billion, Italy €27.4 billion, Lithuania €602 million, Malta €244 million and Slovakia €631 million.
An overview of the amounts disbursed up to date and the different maturities of the bonds are available online here.
Overall, the Commission has so far proposed a total of €90.6 billion in financial support to 19 Member States, of which €90.3 billion for 18 Member States have been authorised. The Council approval of the proposed €230 million to Estonia is expected in due course.
In addition, Member States can still submit requests to receive financial support under SURE which has an overall firepower of up to €100 billion.
Members of the College said:
President Ursula von der Leyen said: “With SURE, we mobilise up to €100 billion in loans to help finance short-time work schemes. Today’s fifth disbursement is great news for the seven EU countries concerned, especially for Czechia who is receiving SURE support for the first time. It will help protect people’s jobs and support businesses across our Union. We are all in this together.”  
Commissioner Johannes Hahn, in charge of Budget and Administration, said: “Following the fifth successful bond issuance under SURE, we have now disbursed €62.5 billion to 16 Member States to help their economies and people to recover from the COVID-19 crisis. The SURE programme shows once again the EU’s commitment to help Member States alleviate the social impact of the current pandemic. More will come.”
Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni, Commissioner for Economy, said: “A year has passed since the first lockdowns were imposed across much of Europe. These and subsequent restrictions were absolutely necessary, but they of course had a severe impact on our economies. As we continue to fight COVID-19, it’s great to see further SURE funding flow to EU countries: providing much-needed European support for workers and the self-employed as they continue to navigate this unprecedented crisis.”
Background
On 9 March 2021, the European Commission issued the fifth social bond under the EU SURE instrument and the second one for 2021, for a total value of €9 billion. The issuance consisted of a single tranche, due for repayment in June 2036.
The bond attracted a strong interest by investors, thanks to which the Commission once again obtained very good pricing conditions. These are being passed on directly to the EU Member States. This achievement was reached in a context of recent volatility in capital markets and rising global interest rates.
The bonds issued by the EU under SURE benefit from a social bond label. This provides investors in these bonds with confidence that the funds mobilised will serve a truly social objective.
Compliments of the European Commission.
The post EU Commission disburses further €9 billion under SURE to seven Member States first appeared on European American Chamber of Commerce New York [EACCNY] | Your Partner for Transatlantic Business Resources.

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Trade policy: a lever of the EU as a geopolitical global player

HR/VP Josep Borrell Blog Post |
Recently, Executive Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis presented a new trade strategy at the College of the European Commission. EU trade policy can be an important foreign policy instrument: we should leverage our trading power to promote EU interests and values and build a fairer and more sustainable form of globalisation.
On 17 February, the European Commission approved a new EU trade strategy, prepared by my colleague Executive Vice-President Dombrovskis in charge of trade, in cooperation with the European External Action Service. It is based on the concept of “Open Strategic Autonomy”, which holds that we must make best use of the EU’s traditional openness and international engagement but also stand ready to enforce EU rights and protect our workers, businesses and citizens when others do not play by the rules.
“In the field of trade, the EU can take quick decisions and it has a lot of clout. The question is: what do want to use it for?”
EU trade policy is one of our most important tools to support European strategic interests and values around the world. Why? Because size matters. The Union is still one of the largest trade and investments players in the world. It is the world’s largest trader of agricultural and manufactured goods and services and ranks first in both inbound and outbound Foreign Direct Investment. The EU has the largest network of trade agreements in the world. On trade issues, the EU speaks with one voice because trade policy is an exclusive competence of the European Commission. Decisions require a qualified majority of member states instead of unanimity, as is the case in foreign and security policy. So in the field of trade, the EU can take quick decisions and it has a lot of clout. The question is: what do want to use it for?
Since the EU’s previous trade strategy of 2015, the world has changed a lot. The rise of global value chains has left individuals and communities behind and increased inequality within countries. It has led to growing criticism of globalisation. We have seen also the erosion of the multilateral system because of great powers rivalry and competitive nationalism with an aggravated crisis at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and an open US-China ‘trade war’. In this new multipolar global order, trade has been more and more weaponised as a tool for power projection and to generate networks of dependencies(link is external).
During the last decade, China’s growth has certainly been impressive, but its economy has not become a real market economy as the result of its WTO membership. China has not opened its internal market in a way that is commensurate with its weight in the global economy. It has also not fulfilled all the commitments it made when it entered the WTO, for instance on government procurement. Moreover, current WTO rules are inadequate to deal with key issues regarding China, such as state capitalism, property rights and its enduring classification as a ‘developing country’ which sits badly with its high tech development.
But the WTO’s problems go beyond China. In fact, the WTO is going through a deeper crisis. Its core functions – negotiating trade liberalisation deals, monitoring members’ trade policies and the binding settlement of trade disputes – are currently stalled or ineffective. The organisation needs structural reform and find ways to support the global economic recovery from the pandemic, addressing at the same time the challenges of sustainability and digitalisation.
“As EU, we believe the world economy needs a stable and predictable, rules-based multilateral trade system”
As EU, we believe the world economy needs a stable and predictable, rules-based multilateral trade system. Therefore, we need a new consensus to update the WTO rulebook. It will be a hard task, given the diverging views among the key players. However the significant change in attitude of the new US administration and the recent designation of Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala as new WTO Director General give some hope.
In any case, the EU has been and will remain a champion of openness and global cooperation. It will continue to forge solutions based on a modernised, rules-based global trade framework. We will engage with like-minded countries to pursue a strong environmental agenda in the WTO and work to ensure that trade policy and practice supports decent work and social fairness around the world. We will also continue pushing for the creation of an International Procurement Instrument to level the playing field in public procurement markets.
“The EU must equip itself at the same time with the necessary trade tools to operate in a fiercely competitive international environment, and defend itself robustly from unfair trade practices”
However, the EU must equip itself at the same time with the necessary trade tools to operate in a fiercely competitive international environment, and defend itself robustly from unfair trade practices. To reinforce our defensive arsenal, the Commission will propose new legal instruments to better follow and address distortions caused by foreign subsidies on the EU’s internal market and to protect us from potential coercive actions of third countries. We are also working on an EU strategy for export credits and new, due diligence legislation for corporations to support human and labour rights worldwide and fight against forced labour.
When it comes to trade agreements, nice promises on paper are not enough. Commitments need to be implemented. We certainly need a stronger focus on the enforcement of existing bilateral trade agreements, so that European businesses, farmers and workers can benefit, as much as possible, from the rights that have been negotiated and agreed trough the 46 bilateral deals which the EU has signed with 78 partners all over the world.
Regarding our bilateral trade agenda, EU-US trade relations will continue to play a central role. We want to revive the core transatlantic relationship and have proposed to the new Biden administration a new ”Transatlantic agenda for global change”. The participation of Secretary of State Antony Blinken in the February Foreign Affairs Council already demonstrated a shared commitment to develop a common agenda on all strategic issues, including trade and technology. The agreement between the EU and the US to suspend all punitive tariffs on exports imposed in the Airbus and Boeing disputes last week is an important step forward in that direction.
We want to quickly resolve our trade disputes with the US, to pave the way for strategic cooperation on WTO reform. We also intend to work with the US and other partners to establish the right rules for digital trade, avoiding digital protectionism. We need to set the standards for newly emerging technologies and make sure these standards reflect our values, and in particular the EU’s high privacy standards under the General Data Protection Regulation. To this end, we have proposed to create an EU-US Trade and Technology Council We also hope also to work closely with the US and other like-minded partners on human rights, child labour and forced labour.
“Building a more balanced, rules-based economic relationship with China is a priority”
EU-China trade and investment relationships are both important and challenging. Building a more balanced, rules-based economic relationship with China is a priority and the recent political conclusion of the negotiations on a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) can be a step in this direction, provided we ensure the commitments China has made are fully implemented.
The CAI is a rebalancing and catching-up agreement. As the Chinese market is more closed than the European one, it was important for Europe to obtain greater market access. This is what we achieved in the manufacturing sector, the automotive sector, financial services, health, telecommunications and maritime transport. The EU is getting through the deal what the US was able to achieve under the US-China phase one agreement of early 2020. In other areas, such as subsidies, we got more than the United States. As these benefits are mostly on a Most Favoured Nation-basis they will also become available to all of China’s trading partners.
The CAI also raises the bar of China’s international commitments in the areas of sustainable development and level playing field. It includes obligations related to state owned enterprises, forced technology transfers and enhanced transparency rule for subsidies. It will allow the EU to gather more information on the behaviour of state-owned enterprises and levels of subsidies in China. It can help to update the WTO rulebook and could contribute to the revitalization of global economic cooperation(link is external). We need to work with China while keeping our eyes wide open.
Beyond the US and China, the overall focus of the new EU trade strategy is on the EU neighbourhood, including enlargement countries, and Africa. Our will to strengthen our “strategic autonomy” and reduce our economic dependency on distant countries also means   developing our trade and investment ties with them, and better integrating our partners in these regions into EU’s supply chains.  It is part, for example, of the new southern partnership we are proposing to our neighbours in the Mediterranean region.
With Asia and the Pacific, which is where a lot of the word’s economic growth will come from, we will seek to consolidate our partnerships and enhance trade and investment reaffirming our commitment to conclude a series of FTAs with partners in the region. Our new strategic partnership with the ASEAN should help us to engage more actively in that direction.
Regarding Latin America, we intend to create the right conditions to conclude negotiations with Chile and ratify our pending agreements with Mexico and Mercosur. With both regions, we want to strengthen regulatory partnerships focusing on climate and digital.
All in all, when it comes to trade the EU is fully committed to leveraging its global power to promote EU interests and values and build a fairer and more sustainable form of globalisation.
Compliments of the European External Actions Service. 
The post Trade policy: a lever of the EU as a geopolitical global player first appeared on European American Chamber of Commerce New York [EACCNY] | Your Partner for Transatlantic Business Resources.

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Horizon Europe’s first strategic plan 2021-2024: EU Commission sets research and innovation priorities for a sustainable future

Today, the European Commission adopted the first strategic plan for Horizon Europe, the new EU research and innovation programme worth €95.5 billion in current prices. The strategic plan is a novelty in Horizon Europe and sets the strategic orientations for the targeting of investments in the programme’s first four years. It ensures that EU research and innovation actions contribute to EU priorities, including a climate-neutral and green Europe, a Europe fit for the digital age, and an economy that works for people.
Margrethe Vestager, Executive Vice-President for a Europe fit for the Digital Age, said: “This Plan provides a frame for top quality, excellence-based research and innovation to be delivered with the Horizon Europe Work Programme. With this strategic orientation we ensure that research and innovation investments can contribute to a recovery process based on the twin green and digital transition, resilience and open strategic autonomy.”
Mariya Gabriel, Commissioner for Innovation, Research, Culture, Education and Youth, said: “The strategic plan’s orientations will ensure that our common EU policy priorities benefit from new knowledge, ideas and innovation. This new approach is another way to make sure that the research and innovation funded by the EU will address the challenges faced by Europeans.”
An ambitious plan for an ambitious programme
The strategic plan sets out four strategic orientations for research and innovation investments under Horizon Europe for the next four years:

Promoting an open strategic autonomy by leading the development of key digital, enabling and emerging technologies, sectors and value chains;
Restoring Europe’s ecosystems and biodiversity, and managing sustainably natural resources;
Making Europe the first digitally enabled circular, climate-neutral and sustainable economy;
Creating a more resilient, inclusive and democratic European society.

International cooperation underpins all four orientations, as it is essential for tackling many global challenges.
The strategic plan also identifies the European co-funded and co-programmed partnerships and the EU missions to be supported though Horizon Europe. The partnerships will cover critical areas such as energy, transport, biodiversity, health, food and circularity, and will complement the ten Institutionalised European Partnerships  proposed by the Commission in February. EU missions will address global challenges that affect our daily lives by setting ambitious and inspirational but achievable goals like fighting cancer, adapting to climate change, protecting our oceans, making cities greener and ensuring soil health and food. Employing a large portfolio of instruments across diverse disciplines and policy areas, the EU missions will tackle complex issues through research projects, policy measures or even legislative initiatives.
The plan’s orientations also address a number of horizontal issues, such as gender. The integration of the gender dimension will be a requirement by default in research and innovation content across the whole programme, unless it is specified that sex or gender may not be relevant for the topic at stake.
Next steps
The priorities set out in Horizon Europe’s strategic plan will be implemented through the Horizon Europe work programme. It sets out funding opportunities for research and innovation activities through thematic calls for proposals and topics. The first calls for proposals will be launched in the spring of 2021 and will be presented at the European Research and Innovation Days on 23-24 June.
Background
Following the political agreement on Horizon Europe of March-April 2019, the Commission began a strategic planning process. The results are set out in the strategic plan.
The strategic plan has been prepared following an extensive co-design process involving the European Parliament, Member States, stakeholders and the public at large. More than 8000 contributions have been submitted in various stages of the strategic planning process. The inclusive co-design process aims to ensure the broadest possible ownership and optimise the overall impact of Horizon Europe.
Compliments of the European Commission.
The post Horizon Europe’s first strategic plan 2021-2024: EU Commission sets research and innovation priorities for a sustainable future first appeared on European American Chamber of Commerce New York [EACCNY] | Your Partner for Transatlantic Business Resources.

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IMF | Rising Market Power—A Threat to the Recovery?

The crisis has hit small and medium enterprises especially hard, causing massive job losses and other economic scars. Among these—less noticeable, but also serious—is rising market power among dominant firms as they emerge even stronger while smaller rivals fall away.
We know from experience and IMF research that excessive market power in the hands of a few firms can be a drag on medium-term growth, stifling innovation and holding back investment. Such an outcome could undermine the recovery from the COVID-19 crisis, and it would block the rise of many emerging firms at a time when their dynamism is desperately needed.

We see growing signs in many industries that market power is becoming entrenched.

Creating a more level playing field is now more important than ever. And governments will need to achieve it across a wide range of sectors—from brewing through hospitals to digital.
New IMF research shows that key indicators of market power are on the rise—such as the markup of prices over marginal cost, or the concentration of revenues among the four biggest players in a sector. Due to the pandemic, we estimate that this concentration could now increase in advanced economies by at least as much as it did in the fifteen years to end of 2015. Even in those industries that benefited from the crisis, such as the digital sector, dominant players are among the biggest winners.
A decades-long trend set to worsen?
A pandemic-driven rise in market power across multiple industries would exacerbate a trend that goes back over four decades. For example, global price markups have risen by more than 30 percent, on average, across listed firms in advanced economies since 1980. And in the past 20 years, markup increases in the digital sector have been twice as steep as economy-wide increases.
Of course, strong profits have historically been the natural reward for successful firms that displaced incumbents through innovation, efficiency, and improved service. Think of how Ikea transformed the way we buy furniture, or how Apple changed the market for mobile phones.
Recently, however, we see growing signs in many industries that market power is becoming entrenched amid an absence of strong competitors for dominant firms. Across different sectors, we estimate that companies with the highest markups in a given year (top decile) have an almost 85 percent chance of remaining a high-markup firm the following year—some 10 percentage points higher than during the “New Economy” era of the 1990s.
The big tech firms are a case in point: the market disruptors that displaced incumbents two decades ago have become increasingly dominant players that do not face the same competitive pressures from today’s would-be disruptors. Here the pandemic-related effects are adding to powerful underlying forces such as network effects and economies of scale and scope.
The role of M&A deals
Across multiple industries, we now see a trend toward falling business dynamism. Think of a young manufacturer that cannot break out of its local market, or a start-up retailer whose prices are undercut by a big rival that temporarily sells below cost to keep entrants at the door.
These are missed opportunities in terms of growth, job creation, and rising incomes. Our research shows how some firms hold power over wages in labor markets, paying workers less than is warranted by their marginal productivity.
One factor contributing to these trends is the rise of mergers and acquisitions (M&A)—especially by dominant players. While M&A can yield cost savings and better products, it can also weaken incentives for innovation and strengthen a firm’s ability to charge higher prices. Worryingly, our analysis shows that M&A by dominant firms contributes to an industry-wide decline in business dynamism—as competitors across the board take a hit to growth and research and development spending. This is particularly worrisome in a world of low productivity growth.
Implications for policymakers
So, what can governments do? We would like to highlight five priorities—whose importance will vary across jurisdictions.
First, competition authorities should be increasingly vigilant when enforcing merger control. The criteria for competition authorities to review a deal should cover all relevant cases—including acquisitions of small players that may grow to compete with dominant firms. For example, Germany and Austria recently introduced thresholds based on the deal price, in addition to those based on the target’s turnover. Evaluations of past merger decisions could also contribute to more effective enforcement of competition rules.
Second, competition authorities should more actively enforce prohibitions on the abuse of dominant positions and make greater use of market investigations to uncover harmful behavior without any reported breach of the law. In 2018, an Australian inquiry into the dairy industry illustrated the benefits: it led to mandated improvements to contracting practices between farmers and processors.
Third, greater efforts are needed to ensure competition in input markets, including labor markets. Here, vigorous enforcement of rules to prevent ‘no poaching’ pacts between firms would be welcome. Non-compete clauses in some retail and fast-food job contracts also make it harder for employees to move to better-paid jobs—which is especially relevant for low-skilled workers.
Fourth, competition authorities should be empowered to keep pace with the digital economy, where the rise of big data and artificial intelligence is multiplying incumbent firms’ advantage. Facilitating data portability and interoperability of systems can make it easier for new firms to compete with established players. For a precedent of how regulation can enable switching and improve consumer welfare, think of how the European Union boosted competition two decades ago by giving customers the right to keep their cell phone number when switching between operators.
Finally, resources matter. In the United States, for example, the combined budget of the Federal Trade Commission and the Department of Justice’s Antitrust Division is roughly half of what it was four decades ago, as a share of GDP. Across many jurisdictions, investments may be needed to further boost sector-specific expertise amid rapid technological change. The United Kingdom recently announced a new Digital Markets Unit that will govern the behavior of dominant platforms, such as Google and Facebook.
Promising signs for green shoots
The good news is that active reviews of competition policy frameworks are already underway in major economies, including the European Union and the United States. These reviews offer an opportunity that should not be missed. Policymakers should act now to prevent a further, sharp rise in market power that could hold back the recovery.
The crisis will reshape our economies through profound structural shifts that should spur a wave of young, high-growth-firms that innovate and create high-quality jobs. They deserve a level playing field and a fair chance to succeed.
Broader policy support directed to small and medium enterprises is also important, as many small firms have been unable to benefit from government programs designed to help firms access financing during the pandemic. As the recovery takes hold and policy support is gradually withdrawn, it will be even more pressing to ensure that viable small and medium enterprises have access to financing, so they are not put at further disadvantage relative to larger firms.
Authors:

Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director, IMF

Federico J. Díez, Economist, IMF

Romain Duval, Assistant Director, IMF

Daniel Schwarz, Counsel, IMF

Compliments of the IMF.
The post IMF | Rising Market Power—A Threat to the Recovery? first appeared on European American Chamber of Commerce New York [EACCNY] | Your Partner for Transatlantic Business Resources.

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IMF | Keeping it Local: A Secure and Stable Way to Access Financing

Paychecks for teachers, new hospital equipment, social assistance programs, and other public expenditures. All depend to large extent on governments’ ability to fund them. When governments—particularly those in emerging and developing economies—need money to pay these and other goods and services, they often turn to bond markets, where they interact with investors seeking to buy government bonds.

A local-currency bond market can make an economy more resilient to sudden movements in foreign capital flows.

But borrowing in foreign currencies in international bond markets can leave these countries exposed to volatile exchange-rate movements. To avoid risks from currency fluctuations, many have invested large resources in recent years to develop local-currency government bond markets.
These bond markets can have a wide range of benefits. They can form the basis of a robust financial system to support growth, and the productive use and allocation of savings. They can help finance budget deficits in a non-inflationary way. And they can facilitate cutting taxes in tough economic times and support the use of other countercyclical fiscal policy measures.  A local-currency bond market can also make an economy more resilient to sudden movements in foreign capital flows.
Moreover, local-currency bond markets can support effective monetary policy and act as an important information source for policymakers. They serve as the cornerstone of the development of domestic financial markets by providing risk-free benchmark rates. When they are developed, these markets become more stable and less risky sources of funding—an important factor in making debt more sustainable.
Developing the markets, one at a time
Local-currency bond markets have grown in many emerging and developing economies in recent years. Yet considerable potential exists to further deepen these markets. Unfortunately, there is no well-defined “recipe” for developing a local-currency bond market given the varying needs of each country. However, there are some common principles.
Establishing and developing domestic debt markets is a long and complex process, requiring multiple and interdependent policy actions. Along the way, benefits and risks for macroeconomic and financial stability need to be addressed.
Against this background, the new Guidance Note for Developing Local Currency Bond Markets addresses these policy issues—by providing comprehensive, systematic, and practical solutions. The Guidance Note was developed jointly by IMF and World Bank staff with support from the Financial Sector Reform and Strengthening Initiative—a collaborative partnership seeking to strengthen various parts of the financial system.
The Guidance Note presents a systematic roadmap for policymakers conducting analysis of emerging and developing economies local currency bond markets. The Note identifies six key building blocks of development: (i) money market, (ii) primary market, (iii) investor base, (iv) secondary market, (v) financial market infrastructure, and (vi) the legal and regulatory framework. It also presents enabling conditions, for market development.
In addition, the Note makes the following contributions:

An indicator-based diagnostic framework based on specific questions and a simple scoring system. Once applied, the framework grades each country in terms of the various dimensions of successful development of local currency bond markets. Corresponding development gaps and priorities can be readily identified and compared with peers to inform solutions.

A catalogue of common problems and solutions to key aspects of local currency bond market development. Most problems, such as the fragmentation of the market, with the existence of a large number of instruments, have well established remedies, such as the issuance of benchmark securities by reopening previously issued instruments.

A guide for designing market reform plans. The guide considers political economy issues and interactions among reforms, such as central bank operational autonomy and coordination arrangements with the debt management office.

Feeding into capacity-development work
The diagnostic framework presented in the Guidance Note offers a simple and systematic approach that countries can use to assess development levels of their markets, identify problems, and monitor progress as policies are implemented. At the same time, the findings gleaned from the application of the framework can help shape the delivery of related capacity-development work in these countries.
Together with country authorities and other international financial institutions, a financial sector development strategy could be drawn up or updated—following on the work of the Financial Sector Reform and Strengthening Initiative—and mapped into IMF and World Bank work aimed at sharing knowledge and building skills among officials in emerging and developing economies.
Integrating market development into policy advice
The Guidance Note can also be helpful to better inform policy recommendations across the IMF’s and World Bank’s core areas of work, including fiscal and monetary policy, financial stability, capital market development, management of foreign flows, business cycles, and economic growth.
In many cases, a wide spectrum of reforms is needed to help develop local currency bond markets, and often careful consideration is needed to determine optimal sequencing and timing of the reforms. The IMF and World Bank are ready to play a catalytic role in helping coordinate the reforms through their regular monitoring of economic and financial conditions, as well as their ongoing dialogue with fiscal and monetary authorities.
Authors:

Tobias Adrian is the Financial Counsellor and Director, IMF

Thordur Jonasson is a Deputy Division Chief in the Debt Capital Markets Division, IMF

M. Ayhan Kose, Acting Vice President, Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions (EFI) and Director, Prospects Group, WORLD BANK GROUP

Anderson Caputo Silva, a Practice Manager in the Finance, Competitiveness & Innovation Global Practice, WORLD BANK GROUP

Compliments of the IMF.
The post IMF | Keeping it Local: A Secure and Stable Way to Access Financing first appeared on European American Chamber of Commerce New York [EACCNY] | Your Partner for Transatlantic Business Resources.

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OECD | Platform for Collaboration on Tax Launches Tax Treaty Negotiations Toolkit

The Platform for Collaboration on Tax (PCT) – a joint initiative of the IMF, OECD, UN and World Bank Group – released the final version of the Toolkit on Tax Treaty Negotiations along with its web-based, interactive edition.
The PCT’s Toolkit on Tax Treaty Negotiations is an effort to provide capacity-building support to developing countries on tax treaty negotiations, building on existing guidance, particularly from the UN Manual for the Negotiation of Bilateral Tax Treaties between Developed and Developing Countries. The toolkit describes the steps involved in tax treaty negotiations, such as how to decide whether a comprehensive tax treaty is necessary, how to prepare for and conduct negotiations, and what follow-up measures to take after negotiations. Treaty negotiating teams, especially those new to the process, can also find practical tips on the conduct of negotiations and negotiation styles. Additionally, the toolkit collates links to publicly available resources that treaty negotiators will find useful, making them easily accessible. The design of the toolkit allows regular updates and improvements based on the feedback from users and experienced negotiators.
This is the fifth toolkit published by the PCT, a collective effort of the PCT Partners to help countries address challenges in international taxation. The final version of the toolkit takes into account extensive comments received from countries and stakeholders during the public consultation process in June – September 2020. In addition to written comments, public consultation webinars, which were held in English, French, and Spanish in November and December 2020, gathered further feedback from diverse stakeholders, particularly treaty negotiation teams.
Following the release, the Toolkit on Tax Treaty Negotiations, including its full web-based version, will be launched at a three-day workshop on March 11, 12, and 15, 2021. The virtual workshop will feature expert speakers and experienced negotiators, who will discuss some of the substantive issues addressed in the toolkit, such as designing a tax treaty policy framework and the steps involved in the preparation for, conduct of, and follow-up after negotiations.
Contacts:

IMF: media[at]imf.org

OECD: ctp.communications[at]oecd.org

UN: ffdoffice[at]un.org

World Bank Group: Elizabeth Howton, ehowton[at]worldbankgroup.org

Compliments of the OECD.
The post OECD | Platform for Collaboration on Tax Launches Tax Treaty Negotiations Toolkit first appeared on European American Chamber of Commerce New York [EACCNY] | Your Partner for Transatlantic Business Resources.

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ECB | Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Introductory statement to the press conference

Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 11 March 2021 |
Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. We will now report on the outcome of the meeting of the Governing Council, which was also attended by the Commission Executive Vice-President, Mr Dombrovskis.
While the overall economic situation is expected to improve over 2021, there remains uncertainty surrounding the near-term economic outlook, relating in particular to the dynamics of the pandemic and the speed of vaccination campaigns. The rebound in global demand and additional fiscal measures are supporting global and euro area activity. But persistently high rates of coronavirus (COVID-19) infection, the spread of virus mutations, and the associated extension and tightening of containment measures are weighing on euro area economic activity in the short term. Looking ahead, the ongoing vaccination campaigns, together with the envisaged gradual relaxation of containment measures, underpin the expectation of a firm rebound in economic activity in the course of 2021. Inflation has picked up over recent months mainly on account of some transitory factors and an increase in energy price inflation. At the same time, underlying price pressures remain subdued in the context of weak demand and significant slack in labour and product markets. While our latest staff projection exercise foresees a gradual increase in underlying inflation pressures, it confirms that the medium-term inflation outlook remains broadly unchanged from the staff projections in December 2020 and below our inflation aim.
In these conditions, preserving favourable financing conditions over the pandemic period remains essential. Financing conditions are defined by a holistic and multifaceted set of indicators, spanning the entire transmission chain of monetary policy from risk-free interest rates and sovereign yields to corporate bond yields and bank credit conditions. Market interest rates have increased since the start of the year, which poses a risk to wider financing conditions. Banks use risk-free interest rates and sovereign bond yields as key references for determining credit conditions. If sizeable and persistent, increases in these market interest rates, when left unchecked, could translate into a premature tightening of financing conditions for all sectors of the economy. This is undesirable at a time when preserving favourable financing conditions still remains necessary to reduce uncertainty and bolster confidence, thereby underpinning economic activity and safeguarding medium-term price stability.
Against this background, the Governing Council decided the following:
First, we will continue to conduct net asset purchases under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) with a total envelope of €1,850 billion until at least the end of March 2022 and, in any case, until the Governing Council judges that the coronavirus crisis phase is over. Based on a joint assessment of financing conditions and the inflation outlook, the Governing Council expects purchases under the PEPP over the next quarter to be conducted at a significantly higher pace than during the first months of this year.
We will purchase flexibly according to market conditions and with a view to preventing a tightening of financing conditions that is inconsistent with countering the downward impact of the pandemic on the projected path of inflation. In addition, the flexibility of purchases over time, across asset classes and among jurisdictions will continue to support the smooth transmission of monetary policy. If favourable financing conditions can be maintained with asset purchase flows that do not exhaust the envelope over the net purchase horizon of the PEPP, the envelope need not be used in full. Equally, the envelope can be recalibrated if required to maintain favourable financing conditions to help counter the negative pandemic shock to the path of inflation.
We will continue to reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the PEPP until at least the end of 2023. In any case, the future roll-off of the PEPP portfolio will be managed to avoid interference with the appropriate monetary policy stance.
Second, net purchases under our asset purchase programme (APP) will continue at a monthly pace of €20 billion. We continue to expect monthly net asset purchases under the APP to run for as long as necessary to reinforce the accommodative impact of our policy rates, and to end shortly before we start raising the key ECB interest rates.
We also intend to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time past the date when we start raising the key ECB interest rates, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.
Third, the Governing Council decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We expect them to remain at their present or lower levels until we have seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2 per cent within our projection horizon, and such convergence has been consistently reflected in underlying inflation dynamics.
Finally, we will continue to provide ample liquidity through our refinancing operations. In particular, our third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III) remains an attractive source of funding for banks, supporting bank lending to firms and households.
Preserving favourable financing conditions over the pandemic period for all sectors of the economy remains essential to underpin economic activity and safeguard medium-term price stability. We will also continue to monitor developments in the exchange rate with regard to their possible implications for the medium-term inflation outlook. We stand ready to adjust all of our instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moves towards our aim in a sustained manner, in line with our commitment to symmetry.
Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. Following the strong rebound in growth in the third quarter of 2020, euro area real GDP declined by 0.7 per cent in the fourth quarter. Looking at the full year, real GDP is estimated to have contracted by 6.6 per cent in 2020, with the level of economic activity for the fourth quarter of the year standing 4.9 per cent below its pre-pandemic level at the end of 2019.
Incoming economic data, surveys and high-frequency indicators point to continued economic weakness in the first quarter of 2021 driven by the persistence of the pandemic and the associated containment measures. As a result, real GDP is likely to contract again in the first quarter of the year.
Economic developments continue to be uneven across countries and sectors, with the services sector being more adversely affected by the restrictions on social interaction and mobility than the industrial sector, which is recovering more quickly. Although fiscal policy measures are supporting households and firms, consumers remain cautious in the light of the pandemic and its impact on employment and earnings. Moreover, weaker corporate balance sheets and elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook are still weighing on business investment.
Looking ahead, the ongoing vaccination campaigns, together with the gradual relaxation of containment measures – barring any further adverse developments related to the pandemic – underpin the expectation of a firm rebound in economic activity in the course of 2021. Over the medium term, the recovery of the euro area economy should be supported by favourable financing conditions, an expansionary fiscal stance and a recovery in demand as containment measures are gradually lifted.
This assessment is broadly reflected in the baseline scenario of the March 2021 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area. These projections foresee annual real GDP growth at 4.0 per cent in 2021, 4.1 per cent in 2022 and 2.1 per cent in 2023. Compared with the December 2020 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, the outlook for economic activity is broadly unchanged.
Overall, the risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook over the medium term have become more balanced, although downside risks remain in the near term. On the one hand, better prospects for global demand, bolstered by the sizeable fiscal stimulus, and the progress in vaccination campaigns are encouraging. On the other hand, the ongoing pandemic, including the spread of virus mutations, and its implications for economic and financial conditions continue to be sources of downside risk.
Euro area annual inflation increased sharply to 0.9 per cent in January and February 2021, up from -0.3 per cent in December. The upswing in headline inflation reflects a number of idiosyncratic factors, such as the end of the temporary VAT rate reduction in Germany, delayed sales periods in some euro area countries and the impact of the stronger than usual changes in HICP weights for 2021, as well as higher energy price inflation. On the basis of current oil futures prices, headline inflation is likely to increase in the coming months, but some volatility is expected throughout the year reflecting the changing dynamics of the factors currently pushing inflation up. These factors can be expected to fade out of annual inflation rates early next year. Underlying price pressures are expected to increase somewhat this year due to current supply constraints and the recovery in domestic demand, although pressures are expected to remain subdued overall, also reflecting low wage pressures and the past appreciation of the euro. Once the impact of the pandemic fades, the unwinding of the high level of slack, supported by accommodative fiscal and monetary policies, will contribute to a gradual increase in inflation over the medium term. Survey-based measures and market-based indicators of longer-term inflation expectations remain at subdued levels, although market-based indicators have continued their gradual increase.
This assessment is broadly reflected in the baseline scenario of the March 2021 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which foresees annual inflation at 1.5 per cent in 2021, 1.2 per cent in 2022 and 1.4 per cent in 2023. Compared with the December 2020 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, the outlook for inflation has been revised up for 2021 and 2022, largely due to temporary factors and higher energy price inflation, while it is unchanged for 2023.
Turning to the monetary analysis, the annual growth rate of broad money (M3) stood at 12.5 per cent in January 2021, after 12.4 per cent in December and 11.0 per cent in November 2020. Strong money growth continued to be supported by the ongoing asset purchases by the Eurosystem, which remain the largest source of money creation. The narrow monetary aggregate M1 has remained the main contributor to broad money growth, consistent with a still heightened preference for liquidity in the money-holding sector and a low opportunity cost of holding the most liquid forms of money.
Developments in loans to the private sector were characterised by somewhat weaker lending to non-financial corporations and resilient lending to households. The monthly lending flow to non-financial corporations continued the moderation observed since the end of the summer. At the same time, the annual growth rate remained broadly unchanged, at 7.0 per cent, after 7.1 per cent in December, still reflecting the very strong increase in lending in the first half of the year. The annual growth rate of loans to households remained broadly stable at 3.0 per cent in January, after 3.1 per cent in December, amid a solid positive monthly flow.
Overall, our policy measures, together with the measures adopted by national governments and other European institutions, remain essential to support bank lending conditions and access to financing, in particular for those most affected by the pandemic.
To sum up, a cross-check of the outcome of the economic analysis with the signals coming from the monetary analysis confirmed that an ample degree of monetary accommodation is necessary to support economic activity and the robust convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2 per cent over the medium term.
Regarding fiscal policies, an ambitious and coordinated fiscal stance remains critical in view of the sharp contraction in the euro area economy. To this end, support from national fiscal policies should continue given weak demand from firms and households relating to the ongoing pandemic and the associated containment measures. At the same time, fiscal measures taken in response to the pandemic emergency should, as much as possible, remain temporary and targeted in nature to address vulnerabilities effectively and to support a swift recovery. The three safety nets endorsed by the European Council for workers, businesses and governments provide important funding support.
The Governing Council recognises the key role of the Next Generation EU package and stresses the importance of it becoming operational without delay. It calls on Member States to ensure a timely ratification of the Own Resources Decision, to finalise their recovery and resilience plans promptly and to deploy the funds for productive public spending, accompanied by productivity-enhancing structural policies. This would allow the Next Generation EU programme to contribute to a faster, stronger and more uniform recovery and would increase economic resilience and the growth potential of Member States’ economies, thereby supporting the effectiveness of monetary policy in the euro area. Such structural policies are particularly important in addressing long-standing structural and institutional weaknesses and in accelerating the green and digital transitions.
We are now ready to take your questions.
Compliments of the European Central Bank.
The post ECB | Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Introductory statement to the press conference first appeared on European American Chamber of Commerce New York [EACCNY] | Your Partner for Transatlantic Business Resources.