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OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann on the outcome of the G7 Finance Ministers’ Meeting

05/06/2021 – OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann welcomed today’s ground-breaking agreement by G7 Finance Ministers on key elements of international tax reform designed to address the tax challenges of the digitalisation and the globalisation of the economy.
“Governments around the world need to be able to raise the necessary revenue to fund the essential public services and support that their populations require and expect, in a way that is efficient, least distorting and also fair and equitable”, said Mr. Cormann.
“The combined effect of the globalisation and the digitalisation of our economies has caused distortions and inequities which can only be effectively addressed through a multilaterally agreed solution. “Today’s consensus among the G7 Finance Ministers, including on a minimum level of global taxation, is a landmark step toward the global consensus necessary to reform the international tax system.
“There is important work left to do. But this decision adds important momentum to the coming discussions among the 139 member countries and jurisdictions of the OECD/G20 Inclusive Framework on BEPS, where we continue to seek a final agreement ensuring that multinational companies pay their fair share everywhere.”
Working with over 100 countries, the OECD is a global policy forum that promotes policies to improve the economic and social well-being of people around the world.
Compliments of the OECD
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ECB Speech | Learning the right lessons from the past

Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, on the occasion of the awarding of the Prix Turgot 2021, Paris |
It is a great pleasure to be here once again in Bercy, which brings back so many memories. I am very grateful to Jean-Claude Trichet and the Cercle Turgot for bestowing this prize on me. It is an honour to join such an illustrious group of recipients.
Anne-Robert, Jacques Turgot himself said that “the whole mass of humanity … marches constantly, though slowly, toward greater perfection”. When I reflect on my career as a policymaker in Paris, Washington and Frankfurt, these words resonate with me greatly.
History never moves in a straight line. Day-to-day, it can be hard to perceive any direction at all. But I do believe that, in retrospect, we can make out a clear path towards progress.
After two decades working in the private sector, I have held public office throughout two decades of crises – a period when Europe has been severely put to the test. But each crisis has taught us a valuable lesson – and we have had the humility to learn.
It is thanks to those past lessons that we have been able to respond to the pandemic effectively. The sum of our crisis experience – as painful as it may have been at the time – has helped us to avert what would have been the greatest crisis of them all.
There are three lessons from the past crises that I would like to reflect on today. First, the importance of effective financial regulation for sustainable growth. Then, the importance of credible commitment in times of great uncertainty. And lastly, the importance of proper policy alignment.
The importance of financial regulation
The first lesson came by way of the great financial crisis, which was already brewing in 2007, just a few months after I took office here, and unfolded in 2008. This crisis laid bare many issues, but perhaps most relevant is what it showed us about why we needed effective financial regulation.
Before the crisis, some saw a trade-off between effective financial regulation and an innovative financial sector that supported growth. The belief was that keeping the financial sector reined in tightly would come at the cost of less innovation and slower growth of lending to the economy.
That notion was shattered very quickly when the financial crisis plunged us into a deep recession. It became clear that the lack of regulation did not really support lending over the longer term. In fact, banks were forced to start rebuilding capital in the middle of a slump, which amplified the credit crunch facing the economy and prolonged the recovery from the crisis.
Europe learnt the lesson. It undertook a swathe of regulatory reforms targeted at banks and non-banks alike. Since 2011, European banks have nearly doubled their core capital ratios to over 14%.[1] We also saw the creation of European banking supervision to give us a broad European view of risks to financial stability.
This meant that, when the pandemic hit, the financial sector could play a fundamentally different role. Instead of being a source of instability, banks could be mobilised to enhance our response to the pandemic, rapidly funnelling liquidity to the economy. From March to May last year, bank lending to companies in the euro area rose by almost €250 billion, the largest jump on record in a three-month period.
The increase in bank capital before the crisis meant that supervisors could free up €120 billion of additional capital for new lending. And thanks to European banking supervision this decision was taken quickly and collectively, rather than in a drawn-out negotiation between multiple national supervisors. This joint European action also averted the risk of stigma that we had previously feared.
What the financial crisis taught us, essentially, is that there is no trade-off between effective regulation and supporting growth. A robust financial sector is an asset during a crisis. And our experience during the pandemic has proven the wisdom of this lesson beyond doubt.
The importance of credible commitment
But the financial crisis also had a more profound impact on Europe, morphing into the euro area sovereign debt crisis. I had a unique perspective on this event, witnessing its start when I was a finance minister and seeing it continue to unfold during my time as IMF Managing Director. This crisis produced the second lesson I would like to highlight, which was possibly easier to see when one was looking from the outside.
It was clear early on that our monetary union was lacking a full set of institutions and needed to be strengthened. We became painfully aware that the euro area was particularly vulnerable to self-fulfilling panics. What became evident is that the perceived commitment of policymakers was a crucial variable in effective policymaking.
Initially, we perhaps underestimated how important those perceptions are. It took time to realise that, in a period of high uncertainty, being seen as fully committed could shift financial markets between polar opposites – from working against us to working with us.
That is why the crisis abated very quickly in 2012 when – within a few months – the Heads of State or Government agreed to launch the banking union and the ECB acted to remove unwarranted fears in financial markets. It became clear that our commitment to the euro was beyond doubt. The euro is, of course, irreversible.
The lesson was also that, in times of crisis, the most important signal for policymakers is their determination to act. And this lesson was absolutely crucial when the pandemic hit us last year.
Recognising the risk of self-fulfilling cycles, the ECB reacted quickly and forcefully by launching the pandemic emergency purchase programme. The message we sent was clear: there are no limits to our commitment to the euro. And that message holds true today.
Equally important was the response by governments. The decision to launch Next Generation EU (NGEU) was a clear demonstration of European unity that broke with the past in many ways. Its size of €750 billion; its structure, which benefits most those worst hit by the pandemic; and its funding via European common debt – all represented a watershed.
As a result, I believe that the intrinsic fragility of the euro area has now declined. Europe has proven that it will come together and take decisive action when needed. This is what the euro crisis taught us about how crises must be managed: they require the commitment of all policymakers for the benefit of all Europeans.
The importance of policy alignment
The euro crisis in turn led to a third, more slow-moving crisis. Europe slipped into a period of what I termed at the time “lowflation”: a persistent low-growth, low-inflation environment. This gave rise to the third lesson I want to underline: the importance of a balanced policy mix.
When inflation is low and interest rates fall towards zero, the optimal policy mix changes. Monetary policy becomes more effective in lifting demand when fiscal policy reinforces it.
In the mid-2010s, however, the euro area saw the opposite happen. Monetary easing was met by a premature and uncoordinated fiscal tightening. Between 2013 and 2018, fiscal policy tightened by around 2.5 percentage points of GDP, while in the United States it loosened by around 0.8 percentage points. This contributed to the slower recovery and weaker price pressures we experienced.
Many observers, myself included, were already highlighting this inconsistency before the pandemic.[2] But the crisis, by its very nature, forced us to take a much-needed change of direction.
Fiscal policies had to step in to offset lost private sector income, because monetary policy could not target the sectors most in need of help. And we have now seen how powerful this can be: in the fourth quarter of last year, compensation of employees in the euro area fell by more than 2%, but real household income actually rose by 0.6% thanks to powerful government transfers.
In parallel, monetary policy has continued to deliver the financing conditions necessary for all sectors of the economy to respond to the crisis, making a superior policy mix possible.
Strong policy support will continue to provide a bridge over the pandemic and well into the economic recovery. The ECB is committed to preserving favourable financing conditions throughout this period. On the fiscal front, the European Commission expects the euro area fiscal stance to loosen by 2.5 percentage points of GDP this year.[3]
Better policy alignment has also extended to supply-side policies. With hindsight, one of the lessons of the last decade is that structural reforms should not focus exclusively on increasing “competitiveness” – defined as lowering costs and boosting exports. They should also focus on raising productivity and modernising our economies.
But what is unique about NGEU is that it combines funding for investment with future-oriented structural reforms focused on making our economies greener and more digital. This combination is critical to ensure that the crisis does not leave lasting scars. The number of people who will need to find a different job by 2030 has risen by 25% in advanced economies due to the pandemic.[4]
We know that strong recoveries are key for people to move into new jobs quickly[5], and the focus of NGEU on productive investment should provide a sustained boost to growth. Green spending is estimated to have a multiplier two to seven times higher than non-green projects.[6]
At the same time, targeted structural reforms should help ensure that freed-up resources are redirected to green and digital activities, and that demand flows towards the jobs and sectors of the future.
The 22 recovery and resilience plans that have been presented to the Commission so far look encouraging. All of the largest economies are planning to dedicate at least 20% of their spending to digitalisation and around 40% to the energy transition and green infrastructure.[7]
Conclusion
Martin Luther King Jr. famously said that “the arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends towards justice”. I believe that we can say something similar about the arc of progress.
Europe moves forward in stops and starts. It often learns lessons the hard way. But its arc bends towards a stronger and more united Europe for all citizens. The common currency reflects this continued progress, with support for the euro at its highest level on record at 80%, up from 66% a decade ago.[8]
This should give us hope as we look to the future. And it should give us confidence that, even when Europe may seem divided or lacking in direction, there is a thread guiding us forwards.
Over my career, I have had the privilege to watch this process unfold up close, to share in its highs and lows. I have been lucky enough to see it from three different perspectives – national, European and global. And I am honoured to continue working to take Europe forwards.
I am very pleased to see the contributions of the European Central Bank recognised through my acceptance of this prize.
Thank you.
Compliments of the European Central Bank.
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EU proposes a strong multilateral trade response to the COVID-19 pandemic

Today, the EU has submitted its proposal seeking the commitment of World Trade Organization (WTO) members for a multilateral trade action plan to expand the production of COVID-19 vaccines and treatments, and ensure universal and fair access. With this proposal to the WTO, divided in two communications, the EU underlines the WTO’s central role in the response to the COVID-19 pandemic and urges fellow WTO members to agree on a set of commitments, including on intellectual property rights.
President von der Leyen said: “The EU has actively shown solidarity with the world since the beginning of the pandemic. The European Union authorized exports of around half of the total amount of vaccines produced in Europe. Our immediate, urgent goal is to ensure equitable access for low – and middle-income countries, to share vaccines wider and faster. And we continue to help ramping up production. The EU proposes concrete short and medium term solutions to ensure universal access at affordable prices. I am looking forward to discuss with the G7 leaders next week how to achieve this goal. Beyond the current crisis, it is important to ensure global preparedness for future pandemics: diversifying manufacturing so that it is not centralised only in a handful of countries and strengthening the resilience of the healthcare infrastructure in least developed countries”.
Executive Vice-President and Commissioner for Trade Valdis Dombrovskis said: “The pandemic is still with us and there can be no room for complacency. We need to urgently concentrate on proposals that accelerate the equitable distribution of COVID-19 vaccines worldwide. In this respect, a strong multilateral trade response could deliver a huge boost in the fight against COVID-19. In reality, the main problem at this moment relates to the lack of sufficient manufacturing capacity to rapidly produce the required quantities. The objective must be to ensure that any available and adequate manufacturing capacity anywhere in the world is used for the COVID-19 vaccines production.”
More on the EU’s proposal
The EU calls on governments to:

Ensure that COVID-19 vaccines, treatments and their components can cross borders freely;
encourage producers to expand their production, while ensuring that those countries most in need of vaccines receive them at an affordable price, and;
facilitate the use of compulsory licensing within the WTO’s existing Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS). The TRIPS Agreement already provides this flexibility, which is a legitimate tool during the pandemic that can be used swiftly where needed

The first element aims to limit the use of export restrictions and keep supply chains open. Vaccine-producing countries should be ready to export a fair share of their domestic production. Supply chains are highly interconnected and should not be disrupted. In addition, the EU considers that supplies to the COVAX Facility should never be restricted, and no measures should limit trade in inputs necessary for the production of COVID-19 vaccines and treatments.
The second element calls on governments to strongly encourage and support vaccine manufacturers and developers to expand production and ensure the affordable supply of vaccines to low- and middle-income countries. Such actions could include licensing agreements, the sharing of expertise, tiered pricing including non-profit sales to low-income countries, contract manufacturing and new investments in manufacturing facilities in developing countries. The EU expects all vaccine producers and developers to make concrete pledges that increase supplies to vulnerable developing countries. In this regard, the EU welcomes the commitment of companies such as BioNTech and Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson and Moderna, which have already committed to delivering 1.3 billion doses this year to low-income countries at no profit and to middle-income countries at lower cost.
The third element, on intellectual property, sets out that voluntary licences are the most effective instrument to facilitate the expansion of production and sharing of expertise. Where voluntary cooperation fails, compulsory licences, whereby a government grants a targeted licence allowing a willing producer to make a vaccine without the consent of a patent holder, are a legitimate tool in the context of a pandemic. The EU considers that all WTO members should be ready to:

agree that the COVID-19 pandemic is an exceptional circumstance of national emergency, and that the requirement to negotiate with the rights’ holder may be legitimately waived where needed;
support manufacturers that are ready to produce vaccines and/or treatments at affordable prices under a compulsory licence so that the level of remuneration paid by the manufacturer to the patent holder reflects such affordable prices;
agree that the compulsory licence could cover any exports destined to countries that lack manufacturing capacity, including via the COVAX facility.

The EU is also tabling a dedicated communication on intellectual property to the WTO body in charge of implementing the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS Council). Here, the EU provides more detail and clarity on each of the three points on intellectual property and links them with the specific provisions in the TRIPS Agreement. As regards the broad waiver proposed by a number of WTO members, the European Commission, while ready to discuss any option that helps end the pandemic as soon as possible, is not convinced that this would provide the best immediate response to reach the objective of the widest and timely distribution of COVID-19 vaccines that the world urgently needs. Today’s proposals aim at achieving that objective in a swift and effective manner*.
Modified on June, 4th, 2021.
Compliments of the European Commission.
The post EU proposes a strong multilateral trade response to the COVID-19 pandemic first appeared on European American Chamber of Commerce New York [EACCNY] | Your Partner for Transatlantic Business Resources.

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EU Commission proposes a trusted and secure Digital Identity for all Europeans

The Commission today proposed a framework for a European Digital Identity which will be available to all EU citizens, residents, and businesses in the EU. Citizens will be able to prove their identity and share electronic documents from their European Digital Identity wallets with the click of a button on their phone. They will be able to access online services with their national digital identification, which will be recognised throughout Europe. Very large platforms will be required to accept the use of European Digital Identity wallets upon request of the user, for example to prove their age. Use of the European Digital Identity wallet will always be at the choice of the user.
Margrethe Vestager, Executive Vice-President for a Europe Fit for the Digital Age said: “The European digital identity will enable us to do in any Member State as we do at home without any extra cost and fewer hurdles. Be that renting a flat or opening a bank account outside of our home country. And do this in a way that is secure and transparent. So that we will decide how much information we wish to share about ourselves, with whom and for what purpose. This is a unique opportunity to take us all further into experiencing what it means to live in Europe, and to be European.”
Commissioner for Internal Market Thierry Breton said: “EU citizens not only expect a high level of security but also convenience whether they are dealing with national administrations such as to submit a tax return or to enroll at a European university where they need official identification. The European Digital Identity wallets offer a new possibility for them to store and use data for all sorts of services, from checking in at the airport to renting a car. It is about giving a choice to consumers, a European choice. Our European companies, large and small, will also benefit from this digital identity, they will be able to offer a wide range of new services since the proposal offers a solution for secure and trusted identification services.”
The European Digital Identity framework
Under the new Regulation, Member States will offer citizens and businesses digital wallets that will be able to link their national digital identities with proof of other personal attributes (e.g. driving licence, diplomas, bank account). These wallets may be provided by public authorities or by private entities, provided they are recognised by a Member State.
The new European Digital Identity Wallets will enable all Europeans to access services online without having to use private identification methods or unnecessarily sharing personal data. With this solution they will have full control of the data they share.
The European Digital Identity will be:

Available to anyone who wants to use it: Any EU citizen, resident, and business in the Union who would like to make use of the European Digital Identity will be able to do so.

Widely useable: The European Digital Identity wallets will be useable widely as a way either to identify users or to prove certain personal attributes, for the purpose of access to public and private digital services across the Union.

Users in control of their data: The European Digital Identity wallets will enable people to choose which aspects of their identity, data and certificates they share with third parties, and to keep track of such sharing. User control ensures that only information that needs to be shared will be shared.

To make it a reality as soon as possible, the proposal is accompanied by a Recommendation. The Commission invites Member States to establish a common toolbox by September 2022 and to start the necessary preparatory work immediately. This toolbox should include the technical architecture, standards and guidelines for best practices.
Next Steps
In parallel to the legislative process, the Commission will work with Member States and the private sector on technical aspects of the European Digital Identity. Through the Digital Europe Programme, the Commission will support the implementation of the European Digital Identity framework, and many Member States have foreseen projects for the implementation of the e-government solutions, including the European Digital Identity in their national plans under the Recovery and Resilience Facility.
Background
The Commission’s 2030 Digital Compass sets out a number of targets and milestones which the European Digital Identity will help achieve. For example, by 2030, all key public services should be available online, all citizens will have access to electronic medical records; and 80% citizens should use an eID solution.
For this initiative, the Commission builds on the existing cross-border legal framework for trusted digital identities, the European electronic identification and trust services initiative (eIDAS Regulation). Adopted in 2014, it provides the basis for cross-border electronic identification, authentication and website certification within the EU. Already about 60% of Europeans can benefit from the current system.
However, there is no requirement for Member States to develop a national digital ID and to make it interoperable with the ones of other Member States, which leads to high discrepancies between countries. The current proposal will address these shortcomings by improving the effectiveness of the framework and extending its benefits to the private sector and to mobile use.
Compliments of the European Commission.
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EU Commission | Towards a stronger and more resilient Schengen area

On June 2, the European Commission is presenting a new Strategy to make the largest free travel area in the world – the Schengen area – stronger and more resilient.
The Schengen area is home to more than 420 million people across 26 countries. The removal of internal border controls between Schengen States is an integral part of the European way of life: almost 1.7 million people reside in one Schengen State and work in another. People have built their lives around the freedoms offered by the Schengen area, with 3.5 million people crossing between Schengen States every day.
The free flow of people, goods and services is at the heart of the European Union and is key for Europe’s recovery following the coronavirus crisis. With today’s Strategy, the Commission takes stock of the challenges faced by the Schengen area in recent years, and sets out a path forward that maintains the benefits of Schengen. Common action is needed at Union level for Member States to cope with today’s challenges.
Underpinning the well-functioning of the Schengen area are three pillars: effective management of the EU’s external borders, strengthening internal measures to compensate for the absence of internal border controls, in particular on police cooperation, security and migration management, and ensuring robust preparedness and governance, including the completion of Schengen. To foster mutual trust in the implementation of the Schengen rules, the Commission is also presenting today a proposal to revise the Schengen evaluation and monitoring mechanism.
President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said: “The freedom to move, live and work in different Member States is a freedom Europeans hold dearly. One of the greatest achievements of the EU, different crises and challenges have shown us that we cannot take Schengen for granted. Today, we are presenting a way forward that makes sure that Schengen can bear the test of time, one that will ensure the free flow of people, goods and services whatever the circumstances to rebuild our economies and for us to emerge stronger together.”
Vice-President for Promoting our European Way of Life, Margaritis Schinas, said: “Unfettered movement within the Schengen area is essential to our European way of life. Schengen is a well-oiled machine but like any machine, to stand the test of time, its foundations need to be constantly shored up and strengthened. Today we are setting out a new way forward that ensures the security and mobility of EU citizens while boosting Schengen’s resilience to challenges. Of course, Schengen is not complete without all our Member States. A more inclusive Schengen will be a stronger and more secure Schengen.”
Commissioner for Home Affairs, Ylva Johansson, said: “With today’s Schengen Strategy, we will be stronger outwards to be freer inwards. State-of-the-art IT systems will improve external border management while enhanced police cooperation and common migration management will help reinforce the Schengen area without border checks. Today’s Strategy will foster the trust and governance to allow us to better anticipate, prepare and react and I am committed to making sure all Member States play their part.”
The Strategy aims to:

Ensure effective management of the EU’s external borders, through the ongoing roll out of the European Border and Coast Guard standing corps; making information systems for border and migration management interoperable by 2023; and an upcoming proposal on making visa applications and travel documents digital. The Commission is also calling on co-legislators to quickly adopt the New Pact on Migration and Asylum proposal on screening of people crossing without authorisation.

Reinforce the Schengen area internally, as close cooperation between Member States on preventing and fighting security threats is crucial to sustain and compensate for the absence of controls at internal borders. New initiatives will include an EU Police Cooperation Code; the upgrade of the ‘Prüm’ framework for exchanging information on DNA, fingerprints and vehicle registration; and expanding the use of advance passenger information to intra-Schengen flights. The New Pact on Migration and Asylum, once adopted, will also establish a common approach to managing migration, an important element for the well-functioning of the Schengen area.

Improve preparedness and governance: The Commission is proposing today to revise the Schengen evaluation and monitoring mechanism (more below). It will also convene regular Schengen Forums to foster political dialogue on addressing common challenges, based on annual reports on the State of Schengen. Later this year, the Commission will propose to revise the Schengen Borders Code to boost Schengen’s resilience to serious threats by ensuring close coordination and introducing the necessary safeguards so that reintroducing internal border checks remains a measure of last resort. The Commission will also present a contingency plan allowing the reactivation of the successful Green Lanes system for uninterrupted freight traffic in case of future crises. Finally, the Commission will launch a dialogue with Member States to address long-lasting reintroductions of controls at internal borders.

Enlarge the Schengen area: Schengen’s future must be marked by the expansion to those EU Member States that are not yet part of the Schengen area. This is both a legitimate expectation and a legal obligation for those countries evaluated as ready for accession.

A revised evaluation mechanism for enhanced trust
To foster common trust in the implementation of the Schengen rules and make sure any deficiencies are identified and remedied quickly, the Commission is proposing today to revise the Schengen evaluation and monitoring mechanism. Changes include accelerating the evaluation process as well as a fast-track procedure in case of significant deficiencies that could put Schengen as a whole at risk. There will also be more political focus on Schengen evaluations as their results will be included in the annual report on the State of Schengen and discussed with the European Parliament and the Council. The revised mechanism includes enhanced monitoring for the respect of fundamental rights.
Background
36 years ago, 5 Member States agreed to remove border controls between themselves. Today, the Schengen area without controls at internal borders is home to over 420 million people in 26 European States. The Schengen area is composed of all EU countries except Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, Cyprus and Ireland. It also includes four non-EU countries: Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and Liechtenstein.
Schengen rules require an update to adapt them to evolving challenges. To build a more resilient Schengen area, President von der Leyen announced in her State of the Union address in September last year that the Commission would put forward a new strategy for the future of Schengen.
This Strategy is based on extensive consultations with Members of the European Parliament and Home Affairs Ministers meeting within the Schengen Forum in November 2020 and May 2021.
Compliments of the European Commission.
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European Commission on the decision by the Swiss Federal Council to terminate the negotiations of the EU-Swiss Institutional Framework Agreement

Statement by the European Commission on Swiss decision to terminate IFA negotiations

The Swiss Federal Council took the decision to terminate the negotiations of the EU-Swiss Institutional Framework Agreement.
We take note of this unilateral decision of the Swiss Government.
We regret this decision, given the progress that has been made over the last years to make the Institutional Framework Agreement a reality.
The EU-Swiss Institutional Framework Agreement was intended as the foundation to enhance and develop EU-Swiss bilateral relations for the future. Its core purpose was to ensure that anyone operating in the EU Single Market, to which Switzerland has significant access, faces the same conditions. That is fundamentally a matter of fairness and legal certainty. Privileged access to the Single Market must mean abiding by the same rules and obligations.
This is why, back in 2019, the EU insisted that this agreement was so essential for the conclusion of possible future agreements regarding Swiss further participation to the Single Market, and also an essential element for deciding upon further progress towards mutually beneficial market access. This agreement would have allowed for a consolidation of the bilateral approach and ensured its sustainability and further development.
Without this agreement, this modernisation of our relationship will not be possible and our bilateral agreements will inevitably age: 50 years have passed since the entry into force of the Free Trade Agreement, 20 years since the bilateral I and II agreements. Already today, they are not up to speed for what the EU and Swiss relationship should and could be.
We will now analyse carefully the impact of this announcement.
For more information
Factsheet on EU-Swiss relations
Factsheet ‘What if there is no Institutional Framework Agreement’

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OECD sees brighter economic prospects but an uneven recovery

Watch the live webcast of the press conference
Prospects for the world economy have brightened but the recovery is likely to remain uneven and, crucially, dependent on the effectiveness of public health measures and policy support, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook. 
In many advanced economies more and more people are being vaccinated, government stimulus is helping to boost demand and businesses are adapting better to the restrictions to stop the spread of the virus. But elsewhere, including in many emerging-market economies where access to vaccines as well as the scope for government support are limited, the economic recovery will be modest.
The OECD has revised up its growth projections across the world’s major economies since its last full Economic Outlook in December 2020. It now sees global GDP growth at 5.8 % this year (compared with 4.2% projected in December), helped by a government stimulus-led upturn in the United States, and at 4.4% in 2022 (3.7% in December). The world economy has now returned to pre-pandemic activity levels, but real global income will still be some USD 3 trillion less by the end of 2022 than it would have been without a crisis.
As long as a large proportion of the world’s population is not vaccinated and the risk of new outbreaks remains, the recovery will be uneven and remain vulnerable to fresh setbacks, the Outlook says. Some targeted restrictions on mobility and activity may still need to be maintained, particularly on cross border travel. This will affect the prospects for a full recovery in all countries, even for those with a fast vaccine rollout or low infection rates.
Driving the differences between countries are public health strategies, the speed of vaccine rollout, fiscal and monetary support, and the relative importance of hard hit sectors such as tourism. While Korea and the US are already back to their pre-pandemic income levels, much of Europe is expected to take an additional year for them to bounce back. In Mexico and South Africa, it could take another three to five years.
Considerable uncertainty surrounds the projections, although risks have become more balanced between potential positive and negative impacts. In countries where vaccination is not widespread, the risk of further outbreaks remains very high, with the possible emergence of new vaccine-resistant variants of the virus. This could trigger further containment measures and delay the economic rebound.
On the upside, the high levels of household savings that have built up during the crisis could be unleashed as economies reopen, boosting consumption and growth to higher-than-expected levels, especially in advanced economies.

Image courtesy of the OECD.
The release of pent-up demand in the advanced economies, together with disruptions to supply chains caused by COVID-19, could push up inflation and market interest rates, which in turn risks putting vulnerable emerging-market and developing countries under financial pressure. But, according to the Outlook, the jump in inflation will likely be temporary as the disruptions should start to fade by the end of the year, with production capacity normalising and consumption rebalancing from goods towards services. The OECD adds that with many people still out of work, a cycle of sharp wage rises and price increases is unlikely.
Presenting the Economic Outlook, OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría said: “Effective vaccination programmes in many countries has meant today’s Economic Outlook is more promising than at any time since the start of this devastating pandemic. But for millions around the world getting a jab still remains a distant prospect. We urgently need to step up the production and equitable distribution of vaccines.”
OECD Chief Economist Laurence Boone said: “Our latest projections provide hope that in many countries, people hit hard by the pandemic may soon be able to return to work and start living a normal life again. But we are at a critical stage of the recovery. Vaccination production and distribution have to accelerate globally and be backed by effective public health strategies.”
“Stronger international cooperation is needed to provide low-income countries with the resources – medical and financial – required to vaccinate their populations. Trade in healthcare products must be allowed to flow free of restrictions.”
Ms Boone said income support for people and businesses should continue but evolve and adapt in line with the strength of the economy and the health situation. As containment measures are lifted, better targeting of support to where it is needed most – including through re-training and job placement – will improve prospects, particularly for the low skilled and for youth. Support also needs to focus on viable businesses, to encourage a move away from debt into equity, and to create jobs and invest in digitalisation.
Although government fiscal support throughout the pandemic has pushed up public debt in most economies, the Outlook says current low interest rates make debt servicing more manageable and should open the way for investments in areas such as healthcare, digitalisation and addressing climate change. Ms Boone insisted “Debt sustainability should be a priority only once the recovery is well advanced, but governments should start planning for an overhaul of public finance management. This is no ordinary crisis and no ordinary recovery. Post crisis policies should be reformed in depth to address more effectively today’s challenges and those ahead.”

Image courtesy of the OECD.
For the full report and more information, visit the Economic Outlook online.
Contact:

OECD Media Office | news.contact@oecd.org | +33 1 4524 9700).

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OECD Ministers launch new initiative for safe international travel

OECD Ministers have endorsed a new initiative to promote safe international travel during the COVID-19 pandemic at the OECD’s annual Ministerial meeting in Paris.
The Initiative involves a safe travel blueprint and a temporary international cross-sectoral forum for knowledge sharing. The forum will allow governments and stakeholders to share information in real time on plans and approaches facilitating travel. The blueprint promotes greater certainty, safety and security in travel as reopening takes place. It builds on existing initiatives and aims to increase interoperability amongst travel regimes. It will be used by countries on a voluntary basis.
International air passenger transport dropped around 75% in 2020 and international tourism fell by around 80%. For the average OECD country, pre-pandemic, international tourism contributed 4.4% of GDP, 6.9% of employment, and 21.5% of service exports, but with much higher shares for some countries, including Greece, Iceland, Mexico, Portugal and Spain. The halt in international travel and tourism is having a dramatic knock-on impact on the entire, interlinked global economy.
“The OECD is in a unique position to help countries coordinate international action in the context of reopening global travel,” said OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría at the Ministerial meeting in Paris. “This initiative will help reduce uncertainty and complexity and enable countries to prepare more effectively for a return to safe international travel and tourism.”
Without an international framework for travel policies, a patchwork of national and regional rules, inconsistent with each other, will continue to be confusing and costly for travellers and transport and tourism companies, discouraging travel due to the uncertainty and complexity. It could also increase the incidence of use of fraudulent certificates and so undermine the ability of authorities to mitigate public health risks.
The OECD Blueprint, initiated by Spain, supports and complements existing international initiatives, such as the European Union’s proposed ‘Digital COVID-19 Certificate’, by taking a principles-based approach to ensuring that they are compatible with each other, and adopted in a consistent way across a range of countries.
The Blueprint is a flexible and voluntary set of guidelines not a legal text. It consists of a traffic-light system to classify risks; guidance on how vaccination should be certified for travel to those countries that decide to take vaccination status into account; protocols for testing travellers in different circumstances; and principles to be followed in generating electronic certificates for travel that ensure privacy protection and security and promote interoperability among systems.
Countries that use the OECD Blueprint may do so unilaterally or in bilateral or multilateral agreements, or through mechanisms provided in other bodies, such as, in particular the ICAO Public Health Corridor arrangement.
Read the document and the Q&A for more information.
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Green light from all member states for EU recovery spending

The Council has received formal notifications about the approval of the own resources decision from all 27 member states. National ratifications being completed, the EU can now start making available funds under the Recovery and Resilience Facility. With a financial envelope of €672.5 billion, the facility is the central part of Next Generation EU, the EU instrument for economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
After adopting the own resources decision on 14 December 2020, the EU Council completed the list of received formal notifications on 31 May 2021. For the decision to enter into force, member states had to approve it in line with their constitutional requirements.

Today is a big day for the European Union. All 27 member states have notified the ratification of the own resources decision to the Council. Consequently, this decision enters into force tomorrow, June 1st. The Next Generation EU starts tomorrow! The European Union is now able to obtain the necessary funding for the European social and economic recovery. The governments and national parliaments of the EU 27 have shown a strong sense of solidarity and responsibility. We cannot afford to waste more time. We must ensure the swift approval of the first recovery and resilience plans by the end of June.
António Costa – Prime Minister of Portugal

Own resources decision
The own resources decision empowers the European Commission to borrow up to €750 000 million in 2018 prices on capital markets on behalf of the EU. It also provides for an increase of the maximum amount the Union can ask from member states to cover its financial obligations by 0.6 percentage points.
The increase is temporary and only used to support the recovery from the economic fallout caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. It will serve as a guarantee and enable better borrowing conditions on the market.

Own resources decision – formal notifications
Council decision on the system of own resources of the European Union

Recovery and Resilience Facility
Ratification of the own resources decision was a precondition for the use of the Recovery and Resilience Facility. The facility will support the member states in their process of recovering from the economic and social impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
€312.5 billion of grants and €360 billion of loans will be available for public investment and reforms presented in the national recovery and resilience plans drafted by each member state. The plans will foster green and digital transitions, sustainable growth and resilience, and include targets, milestones and estimated costs.

A recovery plan for Europe (background information)

Next steps
The completion of the ratification process allows the EU to start borrowing funds on the capital markets already in June 2021. Pre-financing of 13% of the total amount allocated to each member state will be made available to national governments after the approval of their recovery and resilience plans.
Once the national governments submit their plans, it is for the European Commission to assess them within two months. The Council has then four weeks to approve each plan by means of an implementing decision. The rest of the funds will be disbursed taking into account the achievement of the milestones and targets set in the national recovery and resilience plans.
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Mathias Cormann takes office as OECD Secretary-General

Mathias Cormann took office today as the sixth Secretary-General of the OECD.
Ministers and senior officials of the Organisation’s 38 Member countries and outgoing Secretary-General Angel Gurría welcomed Mr Cormann in a handover ceremony at the OECD Headquarters in Paris during Part I of the two-part 2021 Meeting of the OECD Council at Ministerial Level (MCM).
“I am deeply honoured and humbled by the trust and confidence you have shown in appointing me as your OECD Secretary-General. I am ambitious for the OECD and what it can achieve with Members, for Members, and most importantly, for the people in Member countries. You can count on me to give it my absolute best as we work towards a better future, together.” Mr Cormann said.
Mr Cormann, who has been appointed by member governments to serve a five-year term, was Australia’s Finance Minister from 2013-2020 and was Leader of the Government in the Senate from 2017-2020. He also served as Minister for the Public Service in 2018-2019.
Watch a replay of the handover ceremony

The 2021 MCM, chaired by the United States with Korea and Luxembourg as Vice-Chairs, will be held in two editions.  Edition 1, from 31 May – 1 June, has gathered Leaders and Ministers from the OECD’s 38 countries virtually under the theme of “Shared Values: Building a Green and Inclusive Future”. Key areas of discussion on Day 1 included the global economic situation, lessons to date from the COVID-19 pandemic and priorities for the recovery.
The second edition of the MCM will take place in the autumn and will focus on longer-term issues including the OECD’s future priorities and transforming policy ambitions into deliverable actions that reinforce a shared goal to build a green and inclusive future.
A Ministerial statement summarizing outcomes of this week’s meeting will be issued at the close of the Ministerial, alongside a press conference at 15:30 CEST. (See more information at this link.)
Links to further information:

Mr Cormann’s Biography and Vision Statement

The OECD’s 60-year History and a list of former OECD Secretaries-General

General information About the OECD and the Secretary-General Selection Process

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OECD Media Office | news.contact@OECD.org | +33 1 45 24 97 00

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