Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the International Federation of Accountants’ Chief Executives Forum

Introduction
It is a pleasure to be taking part in the International Federation of Accountants’ Chief Executives Forum today.[1] In line with the topic of the event, I will reflect on the risks and uncertainty that threaten financial stability and their implications for policymakers. I will be brief to allow enough time to take your questions.
Conceptually, risk is associated with situations where the exact outcome is unknown but the possible outcomes can be identified and their probabilities can be estimated reasonably well.[2] For the ECB, financial stability is defined as a condition in which the financial system is capable of withstanding shocks and the unravelling of financial imbalances. So, when assessing financial stability, we evaluate the likelihood of shocks materialising and their potential impact. Uncertainty, by contrast, refers to scenarios where it is impossible to define and measure outcomes and probabilities, often owing to a lack of information. While risk is quantifiable, uncertainty can be proxied at best.
The current environment
Uncertainty in the macro-financial and credit environment is currently exceptionally high, in a world being reshaped by significant shifts in geopolitics, international cooperation, global trade policy, financial regulation and the role of crypto-assets. At the same time, the scale of the defence investment foreseen in the EU is unprecedented and adds another significant layer of uncertainty to the current environment.
According to a news-based index[3], economic policy uncertainty in the euro area is currently more than three times the historical average.[4] Similarly, an index of trade policy uncertainty is more than eight times the historical average.[5] These levels are well above those seen during the pandemic.
Amid all of this uncertainty, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to lower interest rates by another 25 basis points in March. The deposit facility rate is now at 2.5%, 150 basis points below its recent peak.
The disinflation process is well on track, with inflation developing broadly as expected. Headline inflation decreased further from 2.3% in February to 2.2% in March. According to recent data and in line with our projections, wage growth is moderating, which is helping services inflation to gradually decline. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around our 2% inflation target, on a sustained basis.
But uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook remains high, mainly on account of increasing friction in global trade. An escalation in trade tensions could see the euro depreciate and import costs rise, while much needed defence and infrastructure spending could raise inflation via aggregate demand. Geopolitical tensions could also lead to higher inflation owing to trade disruptions, rising commodity prices and energy costs. At the same time, lower demand for euro area exports and lower growth resulting from the impact of higher tariffs or geopolitical tensions could pose a threat to the economy, depress demand and push inflation down.
Weak economic growth remains a challenge for the euro area, even without any further shocks. ECB staff have again revised down their growth projections – to 0.9% for 2025, 1.2% for 2026 and 1.3% for 2027. The downward revisions reflect lower exports and ongoing weakness in investment. High uncertainty, both at home and abroad, is holding back investment, while competitiveness challenges are weighing on exports. Addressing these challenges in order to improve growth prospects is clearly more demanding in the current context of exceptionally high uncertainty about trade and economic policy.
Challenges when analysing financial stability
Our macroeconomic projections are not the only area where we face great difficulties navigating this environment of heightened uncertainty. Analysing financial stability also requires us to adjust our frameworks and use state-of-the-art tools to assess the financial system’s capacity to withstand shocks under these conditions.
Analysing multiple scenarios is a powerful way to deal with situations of high uncertainty. It allows us to test the resilience of the financial system against various possible manifestations of financial stress. Shocks cannot be predicted, but drawing on a diverse array of indicators and a range of sensitivity analyses is essential for us to understand the nuances of the current uncertainty. It is also crucial that our various approaches include ways to measure sources of risk amplification and non-linearities. By combining hard data indicators with survey results and analyses based on micro data, we can achieve a more granular, diverse and timely understanding of the economic landscape. Such a comprehensive approach can enhance our ability to anticipate and respond to emerging challenges.
The main risks to financial stability in the euro area
In the current economic environment, we are observing marked vulnerabilities in financial stability. While banks remain in good shape, with sound solvency and liquidity indicators that are well above regulatory minimums, there are weaknesses in several other areas. First, elevated valuations and concentrated risks make financial markets susceptible to adverse corrections. Non-bank financial intermediaries have remained resilient to recent bouts of market volatility, but they are still quite heavily exposed to risky assets. Broader market shocks could cause sudden investment fund outflows or trigger margin calls on derivative exposures, unsettling markets and leading to abrupt price corrections. Second, sovereign indebtedness is a cause for concern at a time when defence spending is emerging as a priority in Europe, with different countries having very different amounts of fiscal space to respond. Despite the likely increase in debt servicing costs, public finances need to be managed in a growth-friendly way and ultimately be sustainable. Third, the corporate sector has demonstrated resilience but faces competitiveness challenges and is subject to emerging credit risk concerns, especially in the case of firms that are more exposed to the export sector and geopolitical risks.
Conclusion
In conclusion, an extraordinarily high level of uncertainty around economic and trade policy has been acting as a drag on markets and the economy alike. Financial intermediaries need to adapt their risk management tools in the face of new vulnerabilities and scenarios at a time when it is no longer possible to measure likely outcomes and probabilities. This environment calls for heightened vigilance, which is why we are exploring unconventional sources of risk and vulnerability and using a broader range of tools, such as sensitivity and scenario analyses, to assess the resilience of the financial system.
In terms of monetary policy, this uncertainty means we need to be extremely prudent when determining the appropriate stance. While most indicators point to inflation moving in the right direction, the environment of exceptional uncertainty requires us to stick even more closely to our data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach.
The European Union is at a crossroads. Defence policy requires a significant overhaul and challenges relating to trade and economic competitiveness need to be addressed. In addition to ramping up defence spending, we need to deepen and strengthen our Economic and Monetary Union with a true single market for goods and services that shores up our structural economic growth prospects, supported by a complete banking union and capital markets union.

I am grateful to Max Lampe for his contribution to this speech.
Knight, F.H. (1921), Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit, Houghton Mifflin Company, Boston.
Such indices are based on the frequency of specific words in news articles.
Baker, S.R., Bloom, N. and Davis, S.J. (2016), “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 131, No 4, November, pp. 1593-1636.
Caldara, D., Iacoviello, M., Molligo, P., Prestipino, A. and Raffo, A. (2020), “The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 109, January, pp. 38-59.

 
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President Trump’s announcement of universal tariffs on the whole world, including the EU, is a major blow to the world economy.
I deeply regret this choice.
Let’s be clear-eyed about the immense consequences.
The global economy will massively suffer.
Uncertainty will spiral and trigger the rise of further protectionism.
The consequences will be dire for millions of people around the globe.
Also for the most vulnerable countries, which are now subject to some of the highest US tariffs.
The opposite of what we want to achieve.
The tariffs will also hurt consumers around the world.
It will be felt immediately.
Millions of citizens will face higher grocery bills.
Medication will cost more as well as transportation.
Inflation will go up.
And this is hurting in particular the most vulnerable citizens.
All businesses – big and small – will suffer from day one.
From greater uncertainty to the disruption of supply chains to burdensome bureaucracy.
The cost of doing business with the United States will drastically increase.
And what is more, there seems to be no order in the disorder.
No clear path through the complexity and chaos that is being created as all US trading partners are hit.
In the past eighty years, trade between Europe and the United States has created millions of jobs.
Consumers across the Atlantic have benefited from reduced prices.
Businesses have benefited from huge opportunities leading to unprecedented growth and prosperity.
At the same time, we know that the global trading system has serious deficiencies.
I agree with President Trump, that others are taking unfair advantage of the current rules.
And I am ready to support any efforts to make the global trading system fit for the realities of the global economy.
But I also want to be clear: Reaching for tariffs as your first and last tool will not fix it.
That is why, from the outset, we have always been ready to negotiate with the US, to remove any remaining barriers to Transatlantic trade.
At the same time, we are prepared to respond.
We are already finalising a first package of countermeasures in response to tariffs on steel.
And we are now preparing for further countermeasures, to protect our interests and our businesses if negotiations fail.
We will also be watching closely what indirect effects these tariffs could have, because we cannot absorb global overcapacity nor will we accept dumping on our market
As Europeans we will always promote and defend our interests and values.
And we will always stand up for Europe.
But there is an alternative path.
It is not too late to address concerns through negotiations.
This is why our Trade Commissioner, Maros Šefčovič,is permanently engaged with his US counterparts.
We will work towards reducing barriers, not raising them.
Let’s move from confrontation to negotiation.
Finally I would also like to speak directly to my fellow Europeans.
I know that many of you feel let down by our oldest ally.
Yes, we must brace for the impact that this will inevitably have.
Europe has everything it needs to make it through this storm.
We are in this together.
If you take on one of us, you take on all of us.
So we will stand together and stand up for each other.
Our unity is our strength.
Europe has the largest Single Market in the world – 450 million consumers – that is our safe harbour in tumultuous times.
And Europe will stand at the side of those directly impacted.
We have already announced new measures to support the steel and cars sectors.
Last week, we limited the amount of steel that can be imported to Europe tariff-free.
This will give more breathing space to these strategic industries.
Now we will also convene Strategic Dialogues with the steel, the automotive and the pharmaceutical sector.
And others will follow.
Europe stands together for our businesses, for our workers,and for all Europeans.
And we will continue to build bridges with all those that like us care about fair and rules-based trade as the basis for shared prosperity.
Thank you.
 
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Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, on the occasion of the conferral of the Sutherland Leadership Award in Dublin, Ireland

It is an honour to receive the Sutherland Leadership Award.
There are moments in history when things that were once set in stone become fluid. Institutions, norms and alliances that seemed timeless can suddenly be remade.
These moments typically come only once in a generation. Peter Sutherland faced such a juncture when the Cold War ended. The collapse of the Soviet Union could have ushered in a period of global instability and turmoil.
But Peter demonstrated skilful leadership to leverage the defining geopolitical event of his time. As head of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, he successfully led the world’s largest trade negotiation, involving over 120 countries, which ushered in an era of unprecedented global cooperation and prosperity.[1]
Compared with Peter’s era, however, the geopolitical landscape we face today has been turned upside down. We can see this inverted world playing out in different ways.
After the Cold War, the global economy was generally one of openness, integration and certainty. Everyone benefited from a hegemon, the United States, that was committed to a multilateral, rules-based order. This allowed trade and investment to flourish.
But today we must contend with closure, fragmentation and uncertainty.
Geopolitical rivalries are spurring protectionism and upending global supply chains. The international institutions that Peter helped to build are facing increasing challenges. And one index of trade policy uncertainty now stands at more than eight times its average value since 2021.[2]
This landscape poses a serious challenge for Europe on two fronts.
Economically, it risks compounding existing issues like sluggish productivity growth and weak competitiveness. Europe’s reliance on external trade – its trade-to-GDP ratio is about twice that of the United States – makes it vulnerable to trade headwinds. On top of this, pronounced uncertainty may hold back the investment necessary for Europe’s recovery.
Strategically, this new environment could also heighten our security vulnerabilities. We can no longer fully count on the security arrangements that have stood in place since the Second World War. If a security vacuum should arise, it may encourage opportunism by hostile actors on Europe’s doorstep.
Yet despite this challenging landscape, I see a tremendous opportunity for Europe.
Just as in Peter’s time, the structures that once seemed permanent are now becoming fluid again. And just as he did, we can harness the momentum created by geopolitical events to drive positive change.
So how can we – as Europeans – rise to the moment?
We can do so by embracing a simple idea that, at first glance, seems contradictory, but which in an inverted world makes perfect sense: we must cooperate to compete. And in doing so, we must also leverage our competitive advantage.
On the economic front, we need to work together to simplify and scale up our economy so that we can hold our own in a world dominated by economic giants. If we do so, we can attract talent and investment.
That means integrating our capital markets, allowing Europe’s ample savings to fund our much-needed investments. And following the powerful example set by Peter during his time as European Commissioner in the 1980s, it means removing internal barriers that stand in the way of our Single Market, allowing our firms to scale more easily and compete more effectively.[3]
There is clear momentum on this front. The reports by Enrico Letta and Mario Draghi have opened the way. And with its Competitiveness Compass, the European Commission has put forward a concrete roadmap with milestones that should be urgently implemented.
But we cannot stop halfway and we are pressed for time. As we scale up our economy, we need to scale up our decision-making to match it – and thereby stand tall and be heard.
At a time when major economies are adopting cohesive strategic agendas – using tariffs, for example, to extract concessions on other strategic goals – Europe cannot afford to be disunited. If we cannot take decisions in a European way, then others will use that against us.
To stand our ground, we need to be able to act as a single entity across several key areas. And that means we need to structurally change how we make decisions.
We know what stands in our way: a historical tradition whereby a single veto can scupper the collective interest of 26 other countries. But given the geopolitical shift at hand, I am convinced that national and European interests have never been so aligned. In this inverted world, more qualified majority voting would therefore be inherently more democratic.
I have no doubt that we can unleash a “European moment” – if leaders are willing to seize it.
If it sounds like I am confident about Europe’s future, it is because I am. But I am in good company here tonight. A recent survey finds that of all the Member States, the Irish are the most optimistic about the EU’s future, and they are among the strongest supporters of the euro.[4]
This sense of optimism is perhaps rooted in Ireland’s extraordinary transformation in recent decades. And here I am reminded of the words of Oscar Wilde, who once wrote, “Success is a science; if you have the conditions, you get the result.”[5]
Ireland put those conditions in place during the most challenging of times, and has reaped the rewards. It is now incumbent on Europe to do the same.
Thank you.

See Chapter 10 in Walsh, J. (2020), The Globalist: Peter Sutherland – His Life and Legacy, William Collins, London.
Index based on Caldara, D. et al. (2020), “The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 109, pp. 38-59. See also “Topic 2: The impact of a shift in US trade policies” in ECB (2025), “Introductory statement in three charts”, 20 March.
See Chapter 8 in Walsh, J. (2020), The Globalist: Peter Sutherland – His Life and Legacy, William Collins, London.
More specifically, at 77%, Ireland shares the top level of optimism about the EU’s future with Poland. See Eurobarometer (2025), “New Eurobarometer survey shows record high trust in the EU: Irish people most optimistic about its future”.
Wilde, O. in Hart-Davis, R. (ed.) (1962), The Letters of Oscar Wilde, Harcourt, Brace & World, New York, p. 143.

 
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The Commission has presented ProtectEU, a new European internal security strategy to support EU countries in guaranteeing security for its citizens. It sets out a workplan with a stronger legal framework, better information sharing and closer cooperation. 
To address increasing security and hybrid threats like terrorism, organised crime, cybercrime, and attacks on critical infrastructure, Europe needs to review its approach to internal security. The strategy aims to adopt a whole-of-society approach that includes citizens, businesses, researchers, and civil society who can contribute to better safety for all.
Key objectives and actions:

a new European internal security governance
anticipating security threats through new ways of sharing intelligence
more effective tools for law enforcement and stronger justice and home affairs agencies
building resilience against hybrid threats
fighting serious and organised crime
combatting terrorism and violent extremism
the EU as a strong global player on security

The actions are backed by evidence from the EU Serious and Organised Crime Threat Assessment (EU-SOCTA). The strategy complements the preparedness union strategy and the European defence white paper. Together with the forthcoming European Democracy Shield, they form a comprehensive framework for a safe, secure, and resilient EU.
 
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Today, the European Commission is revising the EU’s cohesion policy to better support EU competitiveness and decarbonisation, defence and security, the Eastern border regions as well as affordable housing, water resilience, and the energy transition.
The objective of this initiative is to make cohesion policy more effective, by encouraging Member States and regions to invest in the European strategic priorities, while maintaining the focus of cohesion policy on reducing economic, social and territorial disparities. Member States will be invited to reprogramme part of their 2021-2027 cohesion funds to new investments in the context of the ongoing cohesion policy’s mid-term review.
Strengthening Europe’s competitiveness and closing the innovation gap
Given the role of businesses, regardless of their size, in steering research, innovation, knowledge and technology transfer, the Commission is proposing to extend the support of the European Regional Development Fund to large companies in critical areas, such as defence, strategic technologies, and decarbonisation. In addition, the Commission encourages Member States to increase investments in strategic technologies under the Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform, to boost Europe’s competitiveness and innovation.
Backing the defence industry and supporting Eastern border regions
Today’s proposal will further enable Member States to use current cohesion funding to build resilient infrastructure to foster military mobility. It will also support productive capacities of small and large enterprises in the defence sector across all EU regions.
Moreover, cohesion programmes in the Eastern border regions, disproportionately affected by the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, will benefit from a preferential prefinancing level, if they move at least 15% of their overall funds to the new strategic priorities.
More affordable housing
The Commission proposes, in line with the President’s political guidelines, to double the amount of cohesion policy funding dedicated to affordable housing. Member States will also be able to leverage private and public financing by using a new financial instrument set up jointly with the European Investment Bank (EIB). The instrument will combine cohesion funding with the resources of the EIB and of other international financial institutions as well as national promotional and commercial banks.
Enhancing water resilience
Member States will be able to increase investments in water resilience, including in digitisation of water infrastructure, mitigation of drought and desertification impacts.
Supporting the energy transition
Cohesion funding will support investments to promote energy interconnectors and related transmission systems, as well as the deployment of recharging infrastructure. This will be crucial to accelerate the energy transition and promote clean mobility. The proposal will also make it easier to fund decarbonisation measures.
Financial incentives under the strategic priorities
While all cohesion projects developed under the EU strategic priorities will be entitled to up to 30% of prefinancing, cohesion programmes, which will move at least 15% of their overall funds to these priorities, will enjoy an even higher level of advanced payment.
In addition, the EU funding for investments in strategic priorities will cover up to 100% of the costs in all regions.
Next steps
Today’s amendments of the cohesion policy legislations, proposed in the context of the 2025 mid-term review, will be discussed by the European Parliament and the Council.
The Commission’s objective is to conclude the reprogramming exercise of the mid-term review with Member States and regions in 2025, so that the new programmes can start being implemented in early 2026.
Background
With a budget of €392 billion in the current programming period 2021-2027, cohesion policy is the EU’s main investment policy. In line with the legal rules, the current mid-term review allows Member States to assess the implementation of their cohesion programmes and adjust them to the new political priorities in 2025.
For more information, please contact:

Maciej Berestecki, Spokesperson, EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Isabel Arriaga-E-Cunha, Press Officer, EUROPEAN COMMISSION

 
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Welcome address by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the ECB conference on “The transformative power of AI: economic implications and challenges” in Frankfurt, Germany.
It is a pleasure to welcome you to our conference on the transformative power of AI.
In the early stages of a new technological breakthrough, it is often hard to discern fact from fiction. We struggle to imagine the ways in which the new technology will be used. And even if we predict the direction of technological change correctly, we rarely get the timeline or the size of the impacts right.
Today, we sometimes hear claims that AI is improving so fast that we are only a few years away from the nature of work being radically reformed. But we also hear arguments that the same barriers that slowed down the adoption of all past technologies will also delay AI adoption.
I cannot claim to know which vision will prove to be correct. But the early evidence is promising and, in my view, we must act on the basis that we are facing an economic revolution. This attitude will be particularly important here in Europe.
On this side of the Atlantic, we are still paying the price for having been too slow to capitalise on the last major digital revolution, the internet. The tech sector explains around two-thirds of the productivity gap between the EU and the United States since the turn of the century.
And now we are faced with a technology that can improve its own performance through self-learning mechanisms and feedback loops, enabling even more rapid advances and innovations. The risks of underestimating the potential of AI, and falling behind again, are simply too great to be ignored.
What’s more, we are facing a new geopolitical environment in which we can no longer be sure that we will have frictionless access to new technologies developed overseas. This new reality strengthens the case for Europe to establish itself at the technological frontier.
There are two main areas where we should expect, and prepare for, major changes in the economy.
The first is productivity.
We can already see the productivity effects of AI in sectors like the US tech sector, where output is expanding while employment is falling.[1] But we are still in the early phase of the “productivity J-curve”, where new technologies diffuse to the wider economy and are reflected in GDP.
As such, estimates about the productivity gains of AI vary widely – but even at the lower end they would be a game changer for Europe.
One widely accepted methodology estimates that the euro area could see a boost to total factor productivity (TFP) of around 0.3 percentage points per year over the next ten years.[2] Compare that with the past decade, when annual TFP growth averaged just 0.5%.
Other estimates point to much larger gains, with productivity expected to grow 1.5 percentage points faster annually if AI is widely adopted over the next decade.[3]
Whether Europe can achieve such productivity gains will depend on whether we can improve the environment for AI innovation and diffusion.
This comes down to funding, regulation and energy.
As I have been arguing for some time, Europe’s relatively small venture capital ecosystem is a major hindrance to building foundational models in the EU.[4] Between 2018 and 2023, around €33 billion was invested in AI companies in the EU, compared with more than €120 billion in their US peers.[5]
Building and developing this technology also requires considerable investment in data centres, and the EU currently has around 4 times fewer dedicated sites than the US.[6]
At the same time, ECB research finds that regulation and a lack of institutional quality are particularly detrimental to the expansion of high-tech sectors relative to more mature technologies. Investing in radical technologies is highly risky and needs a different set of framework conditions.[7]
The adoption of AI, for example, depends on access to data pools to train models, which requires smart regulation to avoid data fragmentation while ensuring data protection. It also requires good institutions as, for instance, effective legal systems are needed to defend a non-patentable asset like a set of AI prompts.
Our research shows that if the EU’s average institutional delivery were raised to the level of best practice, AI-intensive sectors would see their share in investment rise by more than 10 percentage points.[8]
Finally, unless we see major breakthroughs in efficiency, Europe’s energy supply constraints could pose a challenge to the diffusion of AI through the economy in the future.
The power consumption of data centres is expected to triple in Europe by the end of the decade.[9] AI training and inference is extremely energy-intensive.[10] And this surge in demand comes at a time when the green transition is also increasing the demand for electricity, for example for charging battery electric vehicles.
There is now a clear policy agenda in Europe to address these barriers. It is widely recognised that we need to build a savings and investment union to jump-start European venture capital, that we must simplify complex digital regulations and improve permitting speeds, and that we have to massively increase investment in data centres, fibre-optic networks and electricity grids.
But for Europe to make the most of the AI revolution, how the productivity gains from AI are harnessed also matters. Labour productivity can be increased either by reducing labour inputs relative to outputs, or by raising outputs relative to inputs. The employment implications of each route are vastly different.
This brings me to the second area of major change: the effect of AI on labour markets.
According to ECB research, between 23% and 29% of workers in Europe are highly exposed to AI.[11] This does not necessarily herald a “job apocalypse”. It is reasonable to expect that AI will follow historical patterns by displacing some jobs while creating new one.[12]
But there are two new questions that this technology poses.
First, will the pace of technological change be faster than in previous transitions? This question is critical for Europe, as our social model and traditionally high levels of job protection make it hard to see how a transition that leads to massive job reallocations could avoid a major backlash.
The key factor will be whether AI leans more towards job displacement via its “automation potential”, or towards changes in the nature of work via its “augmentation potential”. In the augmentation scenario, workers will still need to adapt to changing roles and tasks, but the transition will likely be easier.
Recent research by the ILO finds that only a small share of jobs – around 5% in advanced economies – meet the criteria for high automation. But a much larger share – over 13% – meet the criteria for high augmentation.[13]
The second question is about the distribution of gains.
Early studies suggested that AI could increase the productivity of lower-skilled workers the most.[14] But newer studies looking at more complex tasks – like scientific research[15], running a business[16]and investing[17]– tell a different story. High performers benefit disproportionately and, in some cases, less productive workers see no improvements at all.
So even if AI augments more than it automates, we are likely to see an increase in labour market inequality. Demand for higher-skilled workers who can use AI most effectively will rise, while those less able to learn new skills could suffer.
All told, I do see a path for Europe to adopt AI without fracturing its social model. But it will require massive complementary investments in skills to prevent a rise in inequality.
Crucially, this will not require everyone to become coders, which would probably set the bar too high. According to the OECD, most workers who will be exposed to AI will not need specialised AI skills to get ahead in their careers.
In fact, the most sought-after skills in highly exposed jobs will be linked to management and business – skills that many people have the capacity to learn.[18]
The CEO of Anthropic, Dario Amodei, has described the potential capabilities of AI as being like “a country of geniuses in a data centre”.[19] If this proves to be correct, it is both an awesome prospect for humanity and a daunting one for individual workers.
I believe we must act today, and especially in Europe, with the mindset that this future will likely come to pass. We must remove all the barriers that will prevent us from being at the forefront of this revolution.
But we must also prepare for the human and climate impacts of this transition, and we need to start now.
I trust that this conference will generate the ideas we need to move forwards.

Allianz (2025), “Invest in your future: How to save your way out of employment vulnerability”, Allianz Research, 26 March.
Bergeaud, A. (2024), “The Past, Present and Future of European Productivity”, paper presented at the ECB Forum on Central Banking.
Briggs, J. and Kodnani, D. (2023), “The Potentially Large Effects of Artificial Intelligence on Economic Growth”, Goldman Sachs Economics Research, 26 March.
Lagarde, C. (2023), “A Kantian shift for the capital markets union”, speech at the European Banking Congress, 17 November.
European Parliamentary Research Service (2024), “AI investment: EU and global indicators”, March.
KPMG (2024), “Data centres in Europe – a strategic approach”, 23 September.
Bothner, J., Lopez-Garcia, P., Momferatou, D. and Setzer, R. (2025), “Investment in AI intensive sectors – the role of institutional factors in EU countries”, Working Paper Series, ECB, forthcoming.
ibid.
McKinsey (2024), “The role of power in unlocking the European AI revolution”, 24 October.
de Vries, A. (2023), “The growing energy footprint of artificial intelligence”, Joule, Vol. 7, No 10, 18 October.
Albanesi, S., Dias da Silva, A., Jimeno, J., Lamo, A. and Wabitsch, A. (2025), “New technologies and jobs in Europe”, Economic Policy, Vol. 40, No 121, January, pp. 71-139.
Autor, D., Chin, C., Salomons, A. and Seegmiller, B. (2022), “New Frontiers: The Origin and Content of New Work, 1940–2018”, MIT Working Papers, 14 August.
Gmyrek, P., Berg, J. and Bescond, D. (2023), “Generative AI and Jobs: A global analysis of potential effects on job quantity and quality”, ILO Working Papers, No 96, August.
Brynjolfsson, E., Li, D. and Raymond, L.R. (2023), “Generative AI at work”, NBER Working Papers, No 31161, National Bureau of Economic Research, April.
Toner-Rodgers, A. (2024), “Artificial Intelligence, Scientific Discovery, and Product Innovation”, 27 November.
Otis, N.G., Clarke, R., Delecourt, S., Holtz, D. and Koning, R. (2023), “The Uneven Impact of Generative AI on Entrepreneurial Performance”, Working Papers, No 042, Harvard Business School.
Kim, A.G., Muhn, M. and Nikolaev, V.V. (2023), “From Transcripts to Insights: Uncovering Corporate Risks Using Generative AI”, Chicago Booth Research Papers, No 23-19.
OECD (2024), “Artificial intelligence and the changing demand for skills in the labour market”, OECD Artificial Intelligence Papers, No 14, 10 April.
Amodei, D. (2024), “Machines of Loving Grace::How AI Could Transform the World for the Better”, October.

 
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“Check against delivery”
Madam President, dear Roberta,
Mr President of the European Council, dear António,
Honourable Members,
Today, I would like to focus on the threats to global prosperity and stability and the rise of protectionism. And as our domestic agenda cannot be seen separately from global developments around us, let me start with the US tariffs.
When the dream of a united Europe began, it started with a simple idea: Let us create one Single Market. Let us break barriers and take tariffs down. This is what made us strong. Because our companies grew. And so did the ties that bind us together. And then in the same spirit, we worked with partners across the world – including America. We built connections that we believed were unbreakable. And trade brought more than prosperity. It brought the idea of a shared way of life. And with commerce, our partnership has also grown. Countless are the friendships across the Atlantic. And because of this collective experience, so many Europeans feel utterly disheartened by the announcements from the US. Let me be clear: Europe did not start this confrontation. We think it is wrong. But my message to you today is also that we have everything we need to protect our people and our prosperity. We have the largest Single Market in the world. We have the strength to negotiate. We have the power to push back. And the people of Europe should know: Together we will always promote and defend our interests and values. And we will always stand up for Europe.
So far, the US administration has announced a 25% increase of tariffs on imports of steel, aluminium, cars and car parts. The next sectors facing tariffs will be semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and timber. And tomorrow we expect another announcement – with so-called ‘reciprocal’ tariffs that will immediately apply to almost all goods and many countries in the world. Of course there are severe issues in the world of trade. Overcapacities, imbalances, unfair subsidies, denial of market access, intellectual property theft. I hear Americans, when they say some others have taken advantage of the rules. I agree. We also suffer from it. So let us work on it. But tariffs across the board make things worse, not better. Tariffs are taxes that will be paid by the people. Tariffs are taxes for the Americans on their groceries and their medication. Tariffs will just fuel inflation. Exactly the opposite of what we want to achieve. American factories will pay more for components that are produced in Europe. This will cost jobs. It will create a bureaucratic monster of new customs procedures. And today nobody needs that – neither in the US nor in Europe.
So our strategy builds on three pillars. First, we are open to negotiations. We will approach these negotiations from a position of strength. Europe holds a lot of cards. From trade to technology to the size of our market. But this strength is also built on our readiness to take firm countermeasures. All instruments are on the table. Second, we will keep diversifying our trade with other partners. Our hallmark is not only that we are the biggest market in the world but that we are reliable and predictable. We honour our commitments. And that is exactly what our partners are looking for today. And third, we will double down on our Single Market. The Single Market is the cornerstone of European integration and values. It is our powerful catalyst for growth, prosperity and solidarity. We have to tear down remaining barriers to have a Single Market to go big because scale matters. And a Single Market to go fast and go far.
To the first point: Our immediate response is unity and determination. I have already been in contact with our Heads of State and Government on the next steps. We have the parliamentary debate today. And we will assess tomorrow’s announcements carefully to calibrate our response. Our objective is a negotiated solution. But of course, if need be, we will protect our interests, our people and our companies. I want to be very clear on the aim of our response. We think that this confrontation is in no one’s interest. The flow of goods and services between us is nearly balanced. We are willing to work on the trade balance of goods as well as services. This is the largest and most prosperous trade relation worldwide. We would all be better off if we could find a constructive solution. At the same time, it also has to be clear: Europe has not started this confrontation. We do not necessarily want to retaliate, but we have a strong plan to retaliate if necessary.
The second element of our strategy is diversification. Trade goes to where the business case is. We will open doors towards fast-growing markets across the world. Europe already has trade agreements in place with 76 countries. And we are now growing this network. We just concluded trade deals with Mercosur, Mexico and Switzerland. We launched the first-ever Clean Trade and Investment Partnership with South Africa. We aim to conclude a trade agreement with India by the end of the year. We are in intense negotiations with Indonesia and Thailand. And later this week,
President Costa and I will head to Samarkand, for the first-ever summit between the European Union and Central Asia. Europe has always been a trading continent. Let us connect with the new beating hearts of the global economy. Our message is clear: Europe is reliable, predictable and open for fair business.
And the third point, Honourable Members, is: unchain the Single Market. There are too many obstacles that tie down our businesses. And we have to do our homework. Mario Draghi is right when he says: ‘High internal barriers are far more damaging for growth than any tariff.’ The Single Market was born to tear down barriers between our countries. To erase customs and duties. And to make business easy inside Europe. We must go back to that idea and fulfil it. It must be easier for SMEs to sell the same product in all Member States, instead of re-labelling it 27 times to comply with national laws. It must be easier for professionals to work across borders, instead of getting stuck with different national bureaucracies. It must be easier for tech companies to launch a new service all across Europe, instead of dealing with 27 different procedures. And it must be easier for Europeans to invest in Europe, instead of sending their savings to the other side of the world. This is the promise of our Single Market. And it must be fulfilled.
Honourable Members,
The European Parliament has always worked hard to complete the Single Market. Now we have a generational opportunity to get it done. We have a strong consensus on the Draghi and Letta reports. We have put ambitious proposals on the table, from the Savings and Investment Union, to ensure that people get a better return on their savings and the companies find the capital they need to grow, to our omnibus simplification packages, or the Union of Skills. And more will come, including the 28th legal regime for innovative companies. According to the IMF, Europe’s internal market barriers are equivalent to a tariff of 45% for manufacturing and 110% for services.
This simply cannot be. This must change now. That is why I have tasked EVP Séjourné to come up with concrete and bold proposals next month to remove some of these barriers and prevent new ones. These reforms are overdue. And now they have become more urgent than ever. In a stormy global economy, the Single Market is our safe harbour. Thirty years after Jacques Delors laid its first stone, it is time to finish the job.
Thank you, and long live Europe.
 
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Transactions Include Seventh Make More in America Deal, Highlighting Bank Support of Domestic Critical Minerals Supply Chain

Washington, D.C. – The Board of Directors of the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) last week approved three transactions amounting to more than $350 million in financing to support domestic exports and Bank priorities.

The first transaction of the day was an $11 million loan for IperionX Technology LLC to support the purchase and installation of industrial metals processing equipment. This transaction is the seventh under EXIM’s flagship domestic financing initiative, Make More in America (MMIA).
IperionX, a small business located in South Boston, VA, manufactures and exports titanium milled parts and titanium powder to advanced manufacturers for applications such as 3D printing. This loan will assist IperionX with its continued expansion of their processing facility to meet current demand and expected growth in key markets.
“I am pleased that the Board approved EXIM’s seventh Make More in America transaction,” said Acting President and Chairman Jim Cruse. “Today’s transaction continues to reinforce EXIM’s commitment to supporting the American worker with bolstering and reshoring critical supply chains while highlighting our dedication to advancing domestic production of critical minerals.”
The financing from this transaction allows for the advanced refining of titanium, a key critical mineral with significant geopolitical importance, further supporting EXIM’s China and Transformational Exports Program (CTEP). This transaction also supports Bank and Trump Administration priorities of strengthening American supply chains, supporting U.S. exporters, and competing with the People’s Republic of China while bolstering economic security.
The transaction is expected to support an estimated 49 local jobs.
In the second and third transactions of the day, the Board approved two final commitments for Silk Way West Airlines totaling more than $339 million to support aircraft exports. The aircraft are expected to be delivered by Spring 2026. The transactions will support an estimated 700 jobs.
ABOUT EXIM:
The Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) is the nation’s official export credit agency with the mission of supporting American jobs by facilitating U.S. exports. To advance American competitiveness and assist U.S. businesses as they compete for global sales, EXIM offers financing including export credit insurance, working capital guarantees, loan guarantees, and direct loans. As an independent federal agency, EXIM contributes to U.S. economic growth by supporting tens of thousands of jobs in exporting businesses and their supply chains across the United States. Learn more at www.exim.gov.

 
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To deliver on the Clean Industrial Deal, Europe needs affordable energy. A set of concrete short-term and structural measures will provide competitiveness, affordability, security and sustainability for citizens and businesses.
Energy is a building block and a driving force of our Union, and an area where most actions to mitigate climate change can be taken. However, high energy costs are hurting EU citizens and businesses. Energy poverty affects more than 46 million Europeans and electricity is about 3 times more expensive than gas in many European countries. For industries, retail electricity prices have almost doubled since the beginning of the energy crisis in 2021.
Affordable Energy Action Plan
As part of the Clean Industrial Deal, the Commission presented on 26 February 2025 an Affordable Energy Action Plan (COM/2025/79), which is based on 4 pillars:

Lowering energy costs for all
Completing the Energy Union
Attracting investments and ensuring delivery
Being ready for potential energy crises

The Action Plan includes 8 actions, many of which will be delivered already in 2025.
Action 1 – Making electricity bills more affordable
EU countries can already lower electricity bills, but greater ambition is needed, especially in the areas of network charges and taxation. The Commission will put forward a methodology to ensure that network charges incentivise the most efficient use of the grid, lowering energy system costs and total new grid investment needs, and will make recommendations to EU countries to lower national taxes on electricity, immediately reducing energy bills.
Action 2 – Bring down the cost of electricity supply
Costs can be better controlled by swiftly and fully applying existing EU electricity rules, and additional actions to promote the uptake of long-term electricity supply contracts, accelerate permitting procedures for key energy projects, reinforce grids and boost flexibility. An energy system underpinned by market integration, renewable generation and flexibility could result in 40% lower wholesale electricity prices on average in the EU.
Action 3 – Ensure well-functioning gas markets
EU gas wholesale prices have not fully reverted to pre-crisis levels, affecting the competitiveness of the European industry. Full regulatory oversight and close cooperation between energy and financial regulators is required. The Commission will explore how to harness the Union’s purchasing power to get a better deal for imported natural gas. Protecting EU buyers against price volatility of fossil fuels could lead to a significant short-term reduction in retail prices.
Action 4 – Energy efficiency – delivering energy savings
Energy efficiency helps avoid high energy bills. The Commission will support market actors who provide energy efficiency solutions for businesses through the European Energy Efficiency Financing Coalition and update its rules on energy labelling and ecodesign for products – which brought estimated savings of around €120 billion on energy bills in 2023, and could rise to about €162 billion in 2030.
Action 5 – Complete the Energy Union
Energy prices can differ considerably between EU countries. To enhance coordination and strengthen governance of the electricity system, the completion of a genuine Energy Union, including a fully integrated energy market and a cohesive governance framework, is key to preventing sharp increases of system costsof up to €103 billionby 2040 if no action is taken. Measures covered under this action include the launch of an Energy Union Task Force.
Action 6 – A tripartite contract to ensure affordable energy for Europe’s industry
To counteract high energy prices and market uncertainty, a broader tripartite contract for affordable energy can bring together the public sector, energy producers, and energy-consuming industries to create a favourable investment climate, facilitating a competitive EU industrial sector, while ensuring the retention and creation of quality jobs.
Action 7 – Guarantee security of supply for price stability
Ensuring secure EU energy supplies is critical for our economic resilience, continued access to affordable energy and avoiding extreme price volatility. A resilient energy system must be able to withstand potential supply disruptions resulting from geopolitical tensions, cyberattacks, deliberate attacks or extreme weather events, which threaten affordability.
Action 8 – Price crisis preparedness
Europe must be prepared to protect the affordability of energy in the event of an energy price crisis. The Commission will guide EU countries on the application of measures that incentivise consumers to reduce demand at certain times and will work with transmission system operators and national regulatory authorities to temporarily increase electricity flows in cross-border interconnectors, in certain situations.
 
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