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FSB Statement to Support Preparations for LIBOR Cessation

Completion of the steps laid out in the FSB’s Global Transition Roadmap is now critical and market participants need to act urgently to ensure they are fully prepared for LIBOR cessation by the end of this year.
Most LIBOR panels will cease at the end of this year, with certain key USD settings continuing until end-June 2023 to support the rundown of legacy contracts, executed before January 1 2022, only.
Continued reliance of global financial markets on LIBOR poses risks to global financial stability. With only a few weeks remaining to the end of 2021, it is now critical that market participants act urgently to complete any remaining steps set out in the FSB’s Global Transition Roadmap, with global and national financial regulators closely monitoring progress. The FSB emphasises that the continuation of some key USD LIBOR tenors through to 30 June 2023 is intended only to allow legacy contracts to mature, as opposed to supporting new USD LIBOR activity.
The key points covered in the statement are as follows:

Significant progress has been made in transitioning to Risk-Free Rates (RFRs), but market participants still need to finalise preparations to cease new use of LIBOR by end-2021.
Transition should be primarily to overnight RFRs, the most robust benchmarks available, to avoid reintroducing the weaknesses of LIBOR.
Active transition of legacy contracts remains the best way for market participants to have control and certainty over their existing arrangements.

The report notes that the FSB will continue to monitor the final steps in completing LIBOR transition over the coming months. Post end-2021, the FSB will monitor the effort to continue reducing the stock of legacy contracts which are using synthetic LIBOR rates, any continuing new issuance of USD LIBOR contracts post end-2021, and the size and resolution of legacy contracts referencing USD LIBOR that are due to mature after end-June 2023. The FSB will review these issues in mid-2022 and assess the implications for any further supervisory and regulatory cooperation that may be required.
Compliments of the Financial Stability Board.
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IMF | Global Financial Safety Net—A Lifeline for an Uncertain World

When economic crises hit, such as the one caused by the pandemic, countries have a number of financial resources—both internal and external—to draw on. The global financial safety net is a set of institutions and mechanisms that provide insurance against crises and financing to mitigate their impact.
This safety net has four main layers: countries’ own international reserves; bilateral swap arrangements whereby central banks exchange currencies to provide liquidity to financial markets; regional financial arrangements by which countries pool resources to leverage financing in a crisis; and the IMF.
As our chart of the week shows, this global financial safety net has expanded significantly in the past decade and its sources have become more diverse.
The chart, drawn from the recent IMF Special Series on COVID-19, shows that since the global financial crisis, the total stock of international reserve holdings more than doubled, reaching about $14 trillion by end-2020. Other layers of the safety net increased about tenfold, to about $4 trillion.
This increase reflects the expansion of the bilateral swap arrangements during the global financial crisis and the recent pandemic, as well as the establishment of new regional financial arrangements, especially in Europe (e.g., the European Stability Mechanism) and in South East Asia (the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization). The IMF also more than doubled available resources in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.
This reinforced insurance helped effectively cushion the shock during the first year of the COVID-19 crisis. The increased bilateral swap arrangements, primarily the US Federal Reserve swaps, provided prompt liquidity support, helping to stabilize the global financial markets and capital flows to emerging market economies.
Financing from the regional financing arrangements remained low, as demand was contained by supportive macroeconomic policies in advanced economies, and timely financing from other global financial safety net sources.
For its part, the IMF remained the linchpin of the safety net, approving debt service relief and providing financial assistance to an unprecedented number of countries, including low-income and emerging market economies that did not benefit from bilateral or regional arrangements.
As countries continue to grapple with the fallout from the pandemic and face increased risks of tighter financial conditions, the continued use of the global financial safety net will likely be needed until the crisis is over.
Authors:

Alina Iancu is the mission chief for Bosnia and Herzegovina and Deputy Unit Chief in the European Department

Seunghwan Kim  is an economist in the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department of the IMF

Alexei Miksjuk is an economist in the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department

Compliments of the IMF.
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U.S. FED | Testimony by Chair Powell on coronavirus and CARES Act

Chair Jerome H. Powell before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C. |
Chairman Brown, Ranking Member Toomey, and other members of the Committee, thank you for the opportunity to testify today.
The economy has continued to strengthen. The rise in Delta variant cases temporarily slowed progress this past summer, restraining previously rapid growth in household and business spending, intensifying supply chain disruptions, and, in some cases, keeping people from returning to work or looking for a job. Fiscal and monetary policy and the healthy financial positions of households and businesses continue to support aggregate demand. Recent data suggest that the post-September decline in cases corresponded to a pickup in economic growth. Gross domestic product appears on track to grow about 5 percent in 2021, the fastest pace in many years.
As with overall economic activity, conditions in the labor market have continued to improve. The Delta variant contributed to slower job growth this summer, as factors related to the pandemic, such as caregiving needs and fears of the virus, kept some people out of the labor force despite strong demand for workers. Nonetheless, October saw job growth of 531,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.6 percent, indicating a rebound in the pace of labor market improvement. There is still ground to cover to reach maximum employment for both employment and labor force participation, and we expect progress to continue.
The economic downturn has not fallen equally, and those least able to shoulder the burden have been the hardest hit. In particular, despite progress, joblessness continues to fall disproportionately on African Americans and Hispanics.
Pandemic-related supply and demand imbalances have contributed to notable price increases in some areas. Supply chain problems have made it difficult for producers to meet strong demand, particularly for goods. Increases in energy prices and rents are also pushing inflation upward. As a result, overall inflation is running well above our 2 percent longer-run goal, with the price index for personal consumption expenditures up 5 percent over the 12 months ending in October.
Most forecasters, including at the Fed, continue to expect that inflation will move down significantly over the next year as supply and demand imbalances abate. It is difficult to predict the persistence and effects of supply constraints, but it now appears that factors pushing inflation upward will linger well into next year. In addition, with the rapid improvement in the labor market, slack is diminishing, and wages are rising at a brisk pace.
We understand that high inflation imposes significant burdens, especially on those less able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation. We are committed to our price-stability goal. We will use our tools both to support the economy and a strong labor market and to prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched.
The recent rise in COVID-19 cases and the emergence of the Omicron variant pose downside risks to employment and economic activity and increased uncertainty for inflation. Greater concerns about the virus could reduce people’s willingness to work in person, which would slow progress in the labor market and intensify supply-chain disruptions.
To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to support a full recovery in employment and achieve our price-stability goal.
Thank you. I look forward to your questions.

Summary of Section 13(3) Facilities Using CARES Act Funding

(Billions of Dollars)

Facility
Announced
Closed
Maximum capacity1

Peak amount of assets2

Current amount of assets2

Treasury equity remaining3

Corporate Credit Facilities
Mar. 23, 2020
Dec. 31, 2020
750
14.3
0
0

Main Street Lending Program
Apr. 9, 2020
Jan. 8, 2021
600
16.6
13.5
15.7

Municipal Liquidity Facility
Apr. 9, 2020
Dec. 31, 2020
500
6.4
4.2
4.2

TALF
Mar. 23, 2020
Dec. 31, 2020
100
4.1
1.4
1.4

Note: The data are current as of November 24, 2021.

1. The maximum authorized amount of facility asset purchases. Return to text

2. Current and peak outstanding amounts of facility asset purchases:

For the Corporate Credit Facilities (consisting of the Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility and the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility), includes exchange-traded funds at fair value and corporate bonds at book value. Asset balances from trading activity are reported with a one-day lag after the transaction date.

For the Main Street Lending Program, includes loan participations at principal amount outstanding, net of an allowance for loan losses, updated as of September 30, 2021.

For the Municipal Liquidity Facility, includes municipal notes at book value.

For the TALF (Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility), includes loans to holders of eligible asset-backed securities at book value. Return to text

3. The amount of the Treasury contribution to the credit facilities. Return to text

Source: For the amount of assets and Treasury equity remaining, see Federal Reserve Board (2021), Statistical Release H.4.1, “Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions and Condition Statement of Federal Reserve Banks” (November 26), https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41; the peak amounts of assets for each facility are based on the H.4.1 from the start of the corresponding facility until November 24.
Compliments of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

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Capital Markets Union: EU Commission proposes new measures to boost Europe’s capital markets

The European Commission has today adopted a package of measures to improve the ability of companies to raise capital across the EU and ensure that Europeans get the best deals for their savings and investments. One year on from the 2020 Capital Markets Union Action Plan, the Commission is delivering on its commitments, proposing measures to boost European capital markets. This will help Europe’s economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis, as well as the digital and green transitions. In addition, the Commission has put forward a Communication setting out the actions it will take next year to spur the market.
Today’s proposals will ensure that investors have better access to company and trading data. The measures will also encourage long-term investment and make it easier and safer for investment funds to be sold cross-border. Overall, today’s proposals will better connect EU companies with investors, improving companies’ access to funding, broadening investment opportunities for retail investors, and further integrating EU capital markets.
The legislative proposals adopted today are:
1. The European Single Access Point (ESAP): putting data at investors’ fingertips
The ESAP will offer a single access point for public financial and sustainability-related information information about EU companies and EU investment products. This will give companies more visibility towards investors, opening up more sources of financing. This is particularly important for small companies in small capital markets, as they will more easily be on the radar screen of EU, but also international investors. The ESAP will also contain sustainability-related information published by companies, which will support the objectives of the European Green Deal. As a common data space, the ESAP is a cornerstone of the EU’s Digital Strategy and the Digital Finance Strategy.
2. Review of the European Long-Term Investment Funds (ELTIFs) Regulation: encouraging long-term investment, including by retail investors
Today’s review will increase the attractiveness of ELTIFs for investors and their role as a complementary source of financing for EU companies. It will also make it easier for retail investors to invest in ELTIFs, in particular by removing the minimum €10,000 investment threshold, while ensuring strong investor protection. Since ELTIFs are designed to channel long-term investments, they are well placed to help finance the green and digital transitions.
3. Review of the Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive (AIFMD)
Today’s changes will enhance the efficiency and integration of the Alternative Investment Funds market. The proposal harmonises the rules related to funds that give loans to companies. This will facilitate lending to the real economy, while better protecting investors and ensuring financial stability. The review also clarifies the rules on delegation. EU rules on delegation allow fund managers to source expertise from third countries. Today’s review will ensure that there is adequate information and coordination among EU supervisors, better protecting investors and financial stability.
4. Review of the Markets in Financial Instruments Regulation (MiFIR): enhancing transparency by introducing a “European consolidated tape” for easier access to trading data by all investors
Today’s adjustments to EU trading rules will ensure more transparency on capital markets. They will introduce a “European consolidated tape”, which will give investors access to near real-time trading data for stocks, bonds and derivatives across all trading venues in the EU. So far, this access has been limited to a handful of professional investors. Today’s review will also enhance the level playing field between stock exchanges and investment banks. In addition, it will promote the international competitiveness of EU trading venues by removing the open access rule.
Building on the actions announced in the 2020 Capital Markets Union (CMU) Action Plan, the Commission will follow up in 2022 with more CMU actions, including a proposal on listing, an open finance framework, an initiative on corporate insolvency and a financial literacy framework.
Members of the College said:
Valdis Dombrovskis, Executive Vice-President for an Economy that Works for People, said: “Europe needs vibrant and integrated capital markets to boost the real economy and bounce back after the COVID-19 crisis. Today’s proposals take us a significant step closer towards creating the Capital Markets Union. This is important for the growth of the EU economy. We achieve this by improving access to company and trading data, and gearing investments towards our sustainability and digital priorities. Today’s package has a strong focus on helping small companies in small capital markets, making it easier for SMEs to find and access different sources of funding. It will also enhance the international competitiveness of the EU as a place to trade.”
Mairead McGuinness, Commissioner responsible for financial services, financial stability and Capital Markets Union said, “Capital markets play an essential role, alongside banks, in financing our economy but more progress is needed to move towards the completion of the Capital Markets Union.  We are today taking action at various levels: making our capital markets more transparent, facilitating access to financial and sustainability-related data, and making investment products such as ELTIFs and other alternative investment funds more attractive to investors and fund managers. This will better serve the needs of companies seeking finance to grow their business, which is crucial for the recovery and in meeting our green and digital objectives. But we are not stopping here; we are also announcing today more ambitious CMU initiatives to come in 2022 on access for companies to public markets, open finance, financial education and insolvency.”
Next steps
All elements of the legislative package will now be discussed by the European Parliament and the Council. Time is of essence and we invite the co-legislators to start work on these proposals as soon as possible.
Background
The goal of the Capital Markets Union (CMU) is to create a truly single market for capital across the EU. It aims to get investment and savings flowing across all Member States, benefitting citizens, investors and companies, no matter where in the European Union they are based. This is all the more urgent in light of the COVID-19 crisis and the financing needed to support the recovery, sustainable growth and the twin green and digital transitions.
Deepening the CMU is a complex task and there is no single measure that will complete it. Therefore, we need to make progress in all areas where barriers to the free movement of capital still exist. The four legislative proposals adopted today are an important step in the implementation of the Commission’s 2020 CMU Action Plan. They tackle problems across a broad range of capital market services and help achieve the core objectives of the CMU.
Compliments of the European Commission.
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Christine Lagarde Speech | Change and continuity in law

Keynote speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the ECB Legal Conference 2021 | Frankfurt am Main, 26 November 2021 |

Introduction
Ladies and gentlemen,
The first President of the European Commission, Walter Hallstein, famously said that the European Union is a “community of law”[1] – an expression which was then picked up by the European Court of Justice in its judgments. The rule of law is one of the basic principles of our Union, and one we have to defend – especially at times when it is put at risk of being attacked.[2]
This principle means that EU law is the cement that keeps the European construction together. It is the precondition for the very existence of the EU institutions, including the ECB, and for the policies that they are mandated to carry out. But there is an ever-present tension between the role of law as an immutable anchor of society and its need to adapt as the world changes.
Europe’s reaction to the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis has led to a number of institutional innovations, leading some to deem it a “Hamiltonian moment for Europe”. This epithet primarily reflects Alexander Hamilton’s guiding role in creating the US fiscal and monetary institutional set-up. But there is also a second reason why the description fits. Hamilton – a lawyer – was one of the first to introduce the question of the relationship between change and law, and of the role that interpretation – in particular the authoritative interpretation by judges – can have in this context.
This issue has developed into a decades-long debate between “originalism” and “realism” in US scholarship. The same question has also shaped the way in which the notion of an ever-closer Union, the foundation of the EU Treaties, has been developed by the jurisprudence of the Court of Justice. And it continues to shape Europe’s future direction today.
In my remarks this morning, I would like to review the evolution of this debate in US law, starting with Hamilton himself. I will then turn to EU law and ask whether the lessons we can draw from legal history can help give us a sense of direction for the challenges of today and tomorrow.
Hamilton and the Constitution
Hamilton is nowadays credited for having been the father of the US fiscal union, and – as further proof of how these two things go hand in hand – he was also the father of the first central bank of the United States. The US legislature then abolished and re-established a nationwide central bank twice before finally settling on the Federal Reserve System in 1913.
Change is the result of a process of trial and error, and one which can easily end up back at square one – as happened with the repeated attempts to do away with the institution of a central bank altogether to create a new monetary system. To cater for the right balance between the aspiration to experiment and the need to limit errors, legal frameworks include provisions of constitutional rank. These rules[3] provide an element of continuity which anchors the whole system and to which “regular” laws are hierarchically subordinated: laws can be passed by the majorities of the time, but the Constitution is typically very difficult to amend.
However, change in law is pursued not only through the enactment of new laws, but also in the way law is interpreted and applied. And, because they are difficult to amend, this is particularly important for legal provisions having a constitutional rank. Factual contexts can change, and the question then arises whether there is scope for the interpretation of such provisions to change as well, which may be better suited to new social or economic circumstances.
This question is primarily for courts to decide, which have been tasked with interpreting provisions with a constitutional rank. But it also applies to other institutions which have to apply those provisions.
Hamilton famously wrote that judges, in order to preserve the people’s rights and privileges, must have authority to check legislation and acts of the executive for constitutionality. But at the same time, the judiciary, by the very nature of its functions, will always be “the least dangerous” branch of government, for judges hold neither the sword nor the purse of the community; ultimately, they must depend upon the political branches to effectuate their judgments[4].
Hamilton was pointing to the very delicate balance which must be struck between the political legitimation of democratic bodies, which relies on the people, and the authority of independent institutions such as the judiciary – or even central banks – which relies on the law. Since the law is the only source of legitimation of these institutions, the exact meaning and scope of the law – in other words, its interpretation – becomes an issue of crucial importance.
The original meaning of the law in US legal scholarship: continuity and change
If the authority of courts – and the powers of other independent institutions – indeed relies on the law, a question that may be asked is “which law”?
Nobody would disagree with the law narrowly defined, i.e. the provisions under a certain legal framework, having been approved by a certain authority which is entrusted with this power, and following a certain procedure. But the answer becomes more complicated if one considers a broader interpretation, such as the adjudication of the law by the courts.
According to a traditional view, judges are just “the living voice of the Law”[5], while others deem that the idea of law should be stretched to include judicial adjudication[6]. This fascinating debate has been at the centre of legal scholarship for most of the last century, and in the United States it has become the cleavage in the US Supreme Court across which contentious wedge issues have spanned.
The more traditional, “formalist” approach posits that the legal system is composed of a hierarchical system of norms where each level is validated by a superior one. The prevalent view in US legal scholarship in the first part of the last century, which is still represented in the Supreme Court today, is that the aim of interpretation should be to find out the original meaning of the law as drafted by the legislators – or alternatively, the original intention of these drafters. The Constitution should not only be lex legum, a law of laws, but also lex immutabilis, unalterable law, unless explicitly changed via the amendment process. This school of thought is known as “originalism”.
In the 1930s, an opposing movement – the “realist movement” – arose in US legal scholarship. This movement challenged the understanding and very meaning of the concept of law, which in its view should have a much broader scope than legislation alone. That concept should include, inter alia, decision-making by judicial authorities, since “judges do and must legislate” – although only to the extent of filling gaps between positive norms by way of interpretation[7].
This debate between the originalist and realist schools of thought has animated US legal doctrine during the last century, and in more recent times has been personified in the amicable dissent between Supreme Court Justices Scalia and Ginsburg[8]. According to the realists, the very high bar to amend the US Constitution means that the originalist approach introduces an element of rigidity into the legal framework. And this becomes increasingly burdensome as time goes by and the world changes more and more from that which existed when the US Constitution was originally drafted. This is why the realist school has advocated using interpretation to make the legal framework more dynamic, allowing society to adapt to evolving circumstances.
The 14th Amendment, one of the amendments adopted after the War of Secession extending citizenship and civil rights, has been the battlefield par excellence for this debate. And it has been an extremely concrete debate for those people who did not originally benefit from constitutional rights and protections. Indeed, the first part of US constitutional history was defined by the extension of these rights and safeguards to once-excluded groups, such as people from ethnic minorities (including those who were formerly enslaved), men without property, and women[9].
Yet these important changes – which sound obvious to us today – happened to a large extent without changes to the text of the Constitution, so much so that originalist scholars rebelled against what they saw as an abusive use of powers by the Court[10]. In her Madison Lecture, Justice Ginsburg recalled that many of the framers of the Constitution spoke publicly against extending even voting rights to women or black people, who they explicitly saw as a danger.[11]
However, the US Constitution, which does not speak about “equality” with regard to individual rights, had within it the potential to become the foundation on which the rights of women and minorities could be grounded. Remarkably, Justice Ginsburg herself mentioned in the same Madison Lecture that “with prestige to persuade, but not physical power to enforce, with a will for self-preservation and the knowledge that they are not “a bevy of Platonic Guardians,” the Justices generally follow, they do not lead, changes taking place elsewhere in society”.[12]
The Treaty as a new step in the process of creating an ever-closer Union
This debate has shown that there is an inherent tension in law, between change on the one hand and the preservation of the legacy of the past on the other. Cutting across the ideals of change and continuity are the roles of legislation and interpretation in law. It should be no surprise that this tension also exists in EU law.
On the one hand, several elements can be used to argue in favour of the immutable nature of the Treaties as drafted by the Herren der Verträge: above all, the principle of conferral and, to a lesser extent, the principle of subsidiarity and the reference to constitutional identities. The burdensome process for introducing amendments also points in this direction.
On the other hand, the very wording of the Treaties lends itself to a dynamic interpretation, most tellingly when they refer to a “process of creating an ever-closer Union”, of which the Treaties themselves are only “a new step”. Indeed, there are several Treaty provisions that explicitly cater for the need to adapt to changes.
First, there is the general enabling clause, which foresees that the EU Council can unanimously adopt the measures necessary to attain one of the objectives of the Treaties when the Treaties themselves have not provided the necessary powers.[13] Second, there are other more specific provisions which allow the expansion of the tasks and powers assigned to the EU and its institutions. These include the provision on the basis of which the prudential supervision of banks was assigned to the ECB in 2014, without a Treaty change.[14]
There are also several provisions which, in a changing world, can be interpreted to cover new developments. Consider the digital euro or climate change: in both cases the provisions are already there but need to be interpreted to apply to new phenomena. To be the source of authoritative interpretation of EU law, including its founding Treaties, this role is assigned by the Treaties specifically to the European Court of Justice.
The discussions in the EU today on upholding the rule of law are a clear example of how a legal basis in the Treaties has been reinterpreted as the foundation of a whole new framework – a framework which had not been expressly provided for by the drafters of the Treaties, but which the Treaties had the potential to express, and which is in itself providing the basis for the independence of the judiciary in the national context. Even concepts such as the direct effect and primacy of EU law do not stem from the Treaties directly, but from their interpretation in early ground-breaking judgments such as Van Gend en Loos[15] and Costa Enel[16], respectively.
The jurisprudential origin of these concepts has been used by some Member States to challenge the legitimacy of the Court’s role and of the primacy of EU law itself. These challenges have taken place in the alleged defence of the real intentions of the Herren der Verträge when they signed the Treaties.
Proponents of change often call for new legislation to make change happen – most of the time because it is thought that only legislation can provide the necessary degree of clarity and certainty. However, pursuing the route of legislative change can serve as a way to resist reforms which would otherwise be possible in a context of the continuity of existing rules and their adapted interpretation. This is particularly true in a multilateral context like that of the EU, where a double majority in the European Parliament and EU Council is required to adopt legislation. The bar becomes even higher in the case of changes to the Treaties themselves, where the unanimity of Member States is required, including national ratification procedures which sometimes require referendums.
Member States provide important – although often silent – testimonials to the possibility of using the flexibility in the Treaties to adapt to change without amending the text itself. If Member States do not oppose an interpretation of the law which is developed in view of changed circumstances, it can be seen as a validation mechanism for the interpretative change. Indeed, since the Treaty of Lisbon entered into force, there have been almost no changes to the text of the Treaties[17], yet in this period the EU went through the global financial crisis, the migration crisis and more recently the COVID-19 crisis. The evolutive nature of EU law has allowed it to expand and refine the profile and type of intervention that the EU can propose in reaction to a crisis. Today, many measures are possible which 15 years ago would not have even seemed plausible.
Proponents of a careful scrutiny of the action of EU institutions to avoid them overstepping their mandates stress that an evolutive interpretation is not the law that was written in the Treaties, and that this represents undue interference by the Court of Justice in the sovereign decisions of Member States. At the same time, one has to observe that Treaty amendments are nowadays invoked as being required for changes which are often of a technical nature and relatively narrow in scope. This stands in contrast to the incremental evolution which took place in EU law during the first decades and in the absence of any change to the founding Treaties.
In a complex, multi-layered institutional framework such as the EU, one should not see this issue as being limited to a looming conflict between independent courts and Member States. Courts can rightly argue among themselves about different interpretations of the law, and even about the extent to which another court has been given a mandate by the law to give a binding interpretation.
Yet we have challenges that our US friends do not, because within a single system with a single ultimate jurisdictional authority, reconciliation is possible at the top. The language of legal pluralism has been useful to keep everything together, but there is a limit at which the presence of multiple voices, which claim for themselves the role of ultimate deciders, turns from being a resource into a risk – that is, the risk of perennial standstill, where no move is possible without Treaty change.
While this may be seen as a virtue by some – the EU version of the originalists – it is a risk insofar as such a system is inflexible and the idea that change is possible in continuity is denied. It is therefore increasingly becoming apparent that only discontinuity can deliver change. As institutions devoted to continuity, central banks should question if this is what we want.
Conclusion
Let me conclude.
Change can be pursued in many ways, and it is not necessarily true that those which are more eye-catching are also the most effective. Particularly effective are those changes which take place in continuity. One particular case is that of the law, which can be interpreted in a way that makes sense and adapts to societal changes, while remaining coherent with the fundamental principles of the legal system. This ensures continuity in the meaning of the law, in the sense that the text of the law has not changed at all.
Against this background, events like this conference are extremely important, because they offer an occasion to foster discussions, new ways of thinking and possible new ways of interpreting the law, without changing it, in a way that better suits the needs of today.
Following the lesson of Justice Ginsburg, independent institutions which ground their legitimation in the law should stand ready to adapt to the changes which happen in society. And they should interpret and apply the law consequentially, in the way that best serves the needs of the societies and polities which these institutions are meant to serve.
Compliments of the European Central Bank.

Hallstein, W. (1962), “Die EWG—Eine Rechtsgemeinschaft. Rede anlässlich der Ehrenpromotion”, University of Padua, 12 March, in Hallstein, W., Europäische Reden, pp. 343-44.

The programme of the ECB Legal Conference is available on the ECB’s website.

Which may or may not be referred to as a constitution, like in the case of the Treaties in the EU legal framework.

Hamilton, A., The Federalist Papers, No 78.

“Les juges … ne sont que la bouche qui prononce les paroles de la loi, des êtres inanimés qui n’en peuvent modérer ni la force ni la rigueur.” See Montesquieu (1748), De l’esprit des lois.

For some, even interpretation as such, and the factual context insofar as it influences such interpretation (and thereby judicial adjudication).

Southern Pac. Co. v Jensen, 244 U.S. 205, 221 (1917) (Holmes, J., dissenting). Even the father of the Reine Rechtslehre, Hans Kelsen, admitted that in applying the law to an individual case some margins for interpretation by judicial authorities are inevitable. See von Bernstorff, J., “Hans Kelsen’s Judicial Decisionism versus Carl Schmitt’s Concept of the One ‘Right’ Judicial Decision: Comments on Stanley L Paulson, ‘Metamorphosis in Hans Kelsen’s Legal Philosophy’ (2017) 80(5) MLR 860-894”, Modern Law Review.

Monaghan, H.P. (2004), “Doing Originalism”, Scholarship Archive, Columbia Law School.

Morris, R.B. (1987), The Forging of the Union, 1781-1789, Harper & Row, New York, pp. 162-163.

Berger, R. (1977), Government by Judiciary: The Transformation of the Fourteenth Amendment, Harvard University Press.

Ginsburg, R. (1992), “Speaking in a judicial voice”, New York University Law Review, Vol. 67, No 6, pp. 1185-1209.

In doing so, Justice Ginsburg referred to a piece of scholarship by Archibald Cox, tellingly entitled “The Role of the Supreme Court: Judicial Activism or Self-Restraint?” (Cox, A. (1987), “The Role of the Supreme Court: Judicial Activism or Self-Restraint?”, Maryland Law Review, Vol. 47, No 1, pp. 118-138).

Article 352 TFEU.

Article 127(6) TFEU.

Judgment of the Court of 5 February 1963, NV Algemene Transport- en Expeditie Onderneming van Gend & Loos v Netherlands Inland Revenue Administration, C-26/62, ECLI:EU:C:1963:1.

Judgment of the Court of 15 July 1964, Flaminio Costa v E.N.E.L., C-6/64, ECLI:EU:C:1964:66.

With the important exception of the addition of a new paragraph to Article 136 TFEU.

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Christine Lagarde | Interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung

Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Gerald Braunberger, Dennis Kremer and Christian Siedenbiedel on 23 November and published on 26 November 2021 |

Madame Lagarde, inflation rates are increasing around the world. Inflation in the United States is 6.2%, while in Germany a rate of close to 6% is expected for November. Is inflation spiralling out of control?
At the European Central Bank we are of course monitoring that very closely. And not only because our primary objective is maintaining price stability and inflation is a crucial indicator of that. But also because we know that inflation affects people. Those who are less privileged and less well off are the ones who suffer the most from inflation. That’s why we need to keep looking at it very carefully.
Do you feel any effects of rising inflation in your own daily life?
Of course, the rise in energy prices is the most noticeable. After all, energy price inflation now accounts for around half of the high inflation rates. You can’t help noticing the price increase when you fill up your tank at a petrol station or buy heating oil for the winter. As a French person, I keep a close eye on the prices for good bread at the bakery. That stands out at the moment and is making many people worried – but we expect that this rise in inflation will not last. It will subside next year. We expect that the inflation rates will start to fall from as early as January.
What makes you so sure? Won’t there be second-round effects, if the trade unions demand higher wages to compensate for the higher prices?
Judging by what we know from surveys of employers and trade unions so far, no strong inflationary pressure is to be expected from that front for the time being. The negotiated wage settlements have been very moderate so far. For next year, somewhat higher wage demands are partly to be expected. But based on what we are seeing, the settlements should not be on a scale that might trigger a wage-price spiral.
Do you not think that employees could become nervous and nonetheless demand compensation for inflation if inflation rates now hit a level that has not been seen for many years?
That does not seem to be the case at the moment. And if we look at inflation expectations, both those which can be derived from the financial markets and those resulting from surveys, then most people do not expect higher inflation in the longer term. Inflation expectations have risen, but they are below our inflation target of 2%. We don’t see any de-anchoring of inflation expectations.
Do you personally never have any doubts that inflation might persist for longer than your experts are currently predicting?
I ask myself this question again and again. To answer it you have to consider what is driving the current high rates of inflation. I would distinguish three groups of driving factors. The first are statistical base effects which are related to the pandemic, such as the VAT reduction in Germany last year and its reversal, which are now sharply pushing up the price increase relative to the previous year. Similar passing pandemic effects can be seen in respect of package holidays, for example. These factors will automatically disappear next year, as they will fall out of the year-on-year comparison. Supply bottlenecks are a second group of drivers. Demand surged after the end of the first lockdown whereas supply is still constrained. These bottlenecks in, say, computer chips, containers and road haulage capacity are obviously persisting for longer than we had initially thought. But the situation will gradually improve next year in that respect too. The third group is energy prices. We expect that energy price developments will at least stabilise next year.
But surely nobody can know for certain how oil prices, say, will develop next year?
We at least see good reasons why the strong price increase in energy will not last into the second half of 2022. There is in any case no expectation in the oil futures markets that the price increase will continue. But we are seeking to evaluate and consider as many sources of information on this topic as we can.
Do you understand the special concerns in Germany about the high inflation rates?
Yes, I understand these concerns very well; inflation in Germany is higher than in some other countries – in Italy or France for example. In addition, there are cultural differences and a special history with inflation in Germany in the 1920s. The collective experience of inflation in Germany is a different one to that of France or Italy. I understand all that. That’s why we have to thoroughly explain why we nonetheless think our strategy is correct and that we are following price developments very carefully.
Many people in Germany have long been calling for signs that the ECB will tighten its monetary policy strategy.
If we were to tighten monetary policy now, we would expect it to have an impact in 18 months. That is the extent of the time lag before our monetary policy measures take effect. According to our forecasts, however, inflation would have fallen back again by then. We would cause unemployment and high adjustment costs and would nonetheless not have countered the current high level of inflation. I would find that wrong.
Prominent economists like Charles Goodhart think that the whole world is about to enter an era of higher inflation. Does that not worry you?
It goes without saying that we think about longer-term inflation developments. The issue is whether factors which have so far dampened inflation, such as demographic developments or globalisation, are now reversing and could lead to higher rates of inflation. There could be changes; after the pandemic firms may think differently about globalisation and relocating production to cheaper countries. Globalisation will change, but it will proceed and will in all likelihood continue to temper inflation.
But many firms have been talking about deglobalisation since the outbreak of the pandemic.
People have been talking about that for around a year, but it is not really observable in practice. The incentive for firms to cut costs will remain stronger than their desire for independence from suppliers and control over the supply chains. I don’t see any sustainable price-increasing development. By contrast, in my estimation, the changes in demographic developments could have an impact on the future path of inflation, as indeed could digitalisation. But all in all, I see factors that will suppress inflation in the longer term rather than factors that will drive it up. In any case, monetary policy has enough time to respond appropriately to such longer-term trends.
But are climate policies themselves not going to make energy more expensive and push inflation up, at least temporarily?
This could indeed be the case. If the governments keep their commitments on the Paris Agreement and the recent climate conference in Glasgow, it will have an impact on energy prices. Studies show that energy prices react to climate protection measures by increasing significantly at first. However, when demand falls, the price will drop significantly. This effect will materialise.
Deutsche Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann will step down at the end of the year. Will you miss him?
I will. I have the utmost respect for his intellect. I look back fondly on our many encounters over the past few years, for example at G20 meetings. There is one photo in particular that reminds me of that good cooperation– it shows us both at a G20 meeting in Mexico.
Are you not slightly relieved that Mr Weidmann – a big sceptic of the current ECB stance – will be gone?
I am not relieved in the slightest, just the opposite – I am a bit sad that he decided to go. But I am certain the German Government will choose a candidate that will represent the Bundesbank’s views and the concerns of the German people in a similar fashion. I paid close attention to Mr Weidmann’s speech at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress recently. In it, he described the Governing Council of the ECB as a place where any opinion and any concern can be voiced. I see that as part of my approach to leadership. I am 65 and my experience has taught me that it is good to bring people together, exchange arguments and talk openly about concerns and objections. It is only then that you can try to find as much consensus as possible. We cannot always unanimously agree on every single decision.
In a recent speech, Mr Weidmann called on the ECB not to underestimate inflation. Have you been doing that recently?
In recent quarters, we have had to gradually adjust our inflation forecasts. This is true. But most economists all over the world have not fared any better. This experience has taught us to consistently review our baseline scenario and adjust it when needed.
So can you assure us that you will raise interest rates when necessary?
Of course, we will act when necessary. When we see inflation reaching our two per cent target over the medium term, durably and sustainably – meaning not just for a short period of time – then the interest rates can rise again. Such an interest rate hike must serve our mandate of price stability, just like our entire monetary policy. When these conditions are met, no one will be happier than me to normalise monetary policy. Before we can raise rates, however, we will need to reduce our asset purchases.
Unconventional monetary policy measures have now become almost normal – is this not a problem? When asset purchases and negative interest rates were introduced, the general public was told that these measures were temporary. Many now doubt that the ECB will ever go back.
Back in the summer we unanimously approved the outcome of our monetary policy review. Part of that is the medium-term symmetrical inflation target of two per cent. We also agreed on what makes up our toolbox, and asset purchases are explicitly included. We need to ask ourselves which instruments work best to help us fulfil our mandate. We should keep all our tools ready, but we do not need to use all of them all the time.
In 2020, following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the ECB launched the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), which has allowed it to buy bonds flexibly. Is it really going to end in March 2022, as you promised? The pandemic is coming back with a vengeance right now.
Under the current circumstances, I have no reason to doubt that we will stop net asset purchases under the PEPP in the spring. This does not mean that the PEPP will end completely – the maturing bonds need replacing and these reinvestments will need to continue. And let us not forget that we have other purchase programs in our toolbox. I sincerely hope – for the sake of everyone’s health – that the pandemic will be over in the spring and that we will be more resistant to the new infection waves like the one we are seeing in Europe now. That is out of my hands, though – it is up to the scientists who develop vaccines, and of course to the people themselves, who should decide to get vaccinated.
Robert Holzmann, the Governor of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank, has suggested that the ECB should stop all of its asset purchases next autumn if inflation has reached two per cent by then. What do you think of this proposal?
I generally do not comment on what individual heads of central banks have said. All opinions are welcome, but they should be expressed at the right time. That time is 15 and 16 December, when the Governing Council of the ECB meets again.
Some central banks, such as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, have recently voiced concerns about a global rise in asset prices. Are you also concerned?
Asset purchases have been very efficient, but their impact may weaken over time. Therefore, we must always be mindful of their side-effects, for instance rising asset prices, to decide whether using this tool is still proportionate. Rest assured – we are paying very close attention to it.
Do you not feel that the side-effects are starting to dominate?
No, the impact of the bond purchases is still positive and clearly outweighs the negative side-effects.
Nevertheless, it seems like the ECB shies away from the exit for fear of spooking the financial markets.
It is my strong belief that monetary policy needs to work for all Europeans. The markets are not our primary audience, nor are they the main recipients of our communication. Nevertheless, we do need to pay attention to financial stability. There is no price stability without financial stability. The two are closely interconnected, although it is price stability that is our primary mandate. And our monetary policy affects the economy not only through banks, but also via the financial markets.
Some market players try to put the ECB under pressure by vociferously calling for interest rate increases – for example via Twitter. Do you pay attention to them?
I’m glad to say that I don’t have to follow all the things people say on Twitter. My press team takes care of that.
On the other hand, the ECB is increasingly accused − under the heading of fiscal dominance − of giving too much consideration to European countries’ high levels of debt.
Fiscal policy is not my area. However, I was really very satisfied with the developments on 20 July this year. Europe’s government leaders decided, together, to launch the Next Generation EU recovery fund, which will be able to issue common bonds at the EU level. Germany has also agreed to it. For this, I am very grateful to Angela Merkel who recognised the importance of the issue. It sent a very strong fiscal policy message.
Though, some critics considered the message rather questionable.
Unfairly. You know, the rest of the world always doubts Europe. I have lived long enough outside of Europe to know that and to regret it. However, that agreement in July was a clear demonstration that Europe takes the right decisions when it comes to it. It was a privilege for me, as ECB President, to be able to support this process. It was no stroll in the park. It was a tough debate that cost a lot of time and many long nights. However, it was a strong signal to the world. Now, though, the European governments have a duty to stick to the agreement and to deliver what they promised. They must implement the promised structural reforms and they must shape a strong Europe. Implementation is always the hardest part. I remember well the words of my friend, Wolfgang Schäuble, who – as a minister in the Council of European Finance Ministers – always said “Implementation, implementation, implementation.” He always looked at us very strictly as he said it. And he is right. In the next three years, we will see how well Europe can succeed in this.
Is the ECB then ready to act against the fiscal policy interests of EU Member States, if necessary? Is the ECB independent of political pressure?
We are an independent institution and of course our actions are independent of political pressure. A pressure, by the way, that I often observed abroad as Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund. It’s no fun for those central bank governors. That is why it is clear to me that we must focus on our mandate. We will simply ignore attempts to exert political influence.
Do you think the ECB will have to withstand even heavier political pressure in the future?
There may be attempts to exert more pressure. But it won’t lead to anything.
Doesn’t all of this depend on the success of your predecessor, Mario Draghi, who is now Italy’s Prime Minister? If Italy gets a handle on its problems, does the ECB President also sleep more peacefully?
All Member States and all European heads of government shoulder huge responsibility. The instruments are here; they are on the table. A good €800 billion is at the ready in the Next Generation EU recovery fund. Now governments must decide how they will use it. That is not my responsibility. However, they should know this can change the course of things.
You also wanted to change a few things at the ECB – for example, the way the ECB communicates with the public. Are you satisfied with the results so far?
We are working on it. Yes, it was my objective from the start to communicate simply without falling into the trap of oversimplifying. That is why, for instance, we have changed the introductory statement that I make before our press conferences after the meetings of the Governing Council. We have shortened it and cut back on the jargon. Sometimes we have used terribly complicated words to explain basic concepts. It doesn’t have to be like that. Without good communication, we cannot do our job as central bankers.
Nevertheless, the introductory statement is still hard to understand for people outside the world of finance.
Yes, that is true. My neighbour certainly won’t be reading it before bed. However, we can still make it more understandable. In times gone by, central bankers were proud of the fact that it was difficult, if not impossible, to understand them. I have the privilege of knowing the former Chair of the US Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, quite well. He would probably disapprove of my approach. Times have changed, however. In the world of fake news, nothing is more important than being properly understood.
There is need for explanation when it comes to your efforts to make monetary policy greener. For many climate activists, you are not doing enough. Greenpeace even paraglided onto the roof of an ECB building to call for more climate protection.
Yes, I remember that well. My first thought was: how dangerous is this – and how can we prevent an accident? Personally, I do not think it is a safe and appropriate way to express your point of view.
Do you perceive the type of criticism as unfair?
Civil organisations have to speak up when they deem it necessary. However, central banks are not in the driving seat when it comes to fighting climate change. We are not the ones who are steering the bus; that is more the governments and parliaments. But we are all sitting on the bus together. And everyone on the bus – that includes you and me – should not forget that climate change is about the survival of humanity. That is why, within our mandate, we have to take climate-related risks into account in our calculations. But of course the ECB does not decide on climate policy.
Let’s end with a personal question. How often is Europe’s monetary policy decided at your kitchen table?
More often than you might think. A few important decisions have been made there. For example, we made decisions on the pandemic emergency purchase programme, or PEPP, at my kitchen table. We were all in lockdown and I sat there without Zoom and without the video conferencing system. Unbelievable how quickly you forget it. Back then, we had one conference call after another. Luckily, we all knew each other well enough already to know who was speaking. Even if I had to ask every now and then.
You said you would see yourself as an owl when it comes to monetary policy. That is to say, you wouldn’t allow yourself to be limited to just one monetary policy position. After two years leading the ECB, do you still see yourself as an owl or are you now more of a dove?
Absolutely as an owl – guided by its mandate. Since I said that, friends from around the world now send me either figurines or photos of owls. I am now a passionate collector of owls.
Compliments of the European Central Bank.

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Coronavirus: EU Commission proposes to strengthen coordination of safe travel in the EU

Today, the European Commission has proposed to update the rules on coordination of safe and free movement in the EU, which were put in place in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Since the summer, vaccine uptake has increased significantly and the EU Digital COVID Certificate has been rolled out successfully, with more than 650 million certificates issued to date. At the same time, the epidemiological situation in the EU continues to develop with some Member States taking additional public health measures, including administering booster vaccines. Taking into account all those factors, the Commission is proposing a stronger focus on a ‘person-based’ approach to travel measures and a standard acceptance period for vaccination certificates of 9 months since the primary vaccination series. The 9 month period takes into account the guidance of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) on the administration of booster doses as of 6 months, and provides for an additional period of 3 months to ensure that national vaccination campaigns can adjust and citizens can have access to boosters.
The Commission is also proposing updates to the EU traffic light map; as well as a simplified ‘emergency brake’ procedure.
The Commission is also proposing today to update the rules on external travel to the EU [press release available as of 14:15].
Didier Reynders, Commissioner for Justice, said: “Since the start of the pandemic, the Commission has been fully active in finding solutions to guarantee the safe free movement of people in a coordinated manner. In light of the latest developments and scientific evidence, we are proposing a new recommendation to be adopted by the Council. Based on our common tool, the EU Digital COVID Certificate, which has become a real standard, we are moving to a ‘person-based’ approach. Our main objective is avoid diverging measures throughout the EU. This also applies to the question of boosters, which will be essential to fight the virus. Among other measures, we propose today that the Council agrees on a standard validity period for vaccination certificates issued following the primary series. Agreeing on this proposal will be crucial for the months ahead and the protection of the safe free movement for citizens.”
Stella Kyriakides, Commissioner for Health and Food Safety added:  “The EU Digital COVID Certificate and our coordinated approach to travel measures have greatly contributed to safe free movement, with the protection of public health as our priority. We have vaccinated over 65% of the total EU population, but this is not enough. There are still too many people who are not protected. For everyone to travel and live as safely as possible, we need to reach significantly higher vaccination rates – urgently. We also need to reinforce our immunity with booster vaccines. Taking into account the guidance from ECDC, and to allow Member States to adjust their vaccination campaigns and for citizens to have access to boosters, we propose a standard acceptance period for vaccination certificates. At the same time, we have to continue to strongly encouraging everyone to continue to respect public health measures. Our masks need to stay on.”
Key updates to the common approach to travel measures within the EU proposed by the Commission are:

Focus on a ‘person-based approach’: a person who has a valid EU Digital COVID Certificate should in principle not be subject to additional restrictions, such as tests or quarantine, regardless of their place of departure in the EU. Persons without an EU Digital COVID Certificate could be required to undergo a test carried out prior to or after arrival.

Standard validity of vaccination certificates: To avoid diverging and disruptive approaches, the Commission proposes a standard acceptance period of 9-month for vaccination certificates issued following the completion of the primary vaccination series. The 9 month period takes into account the guidance of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) on the administration of booster doses as of 6 months, and provides for an additional period of 3 months to ensure that national vaccination campaigns can adjust and citizens can have access to boosters. This means that, in the context of travel, Member States should not refuse a vaccination certificate that has been issued less than 9 months since the administration of the last dose of the primary vaccination. Member States should immediately take all necessary steps to ensure access to vaccination for those population groups whose previously issued vaccination certificates approach the 9-month limit.

Booster shots: As of yet, there are no studies expressly addressing the effectiveness of boosters on transmission of COVID-19 and therefore it is not possible to determine an acceptance period for boosters. However, given the emerging data it can be expected that protection from booster vaccinations may last longer than that resulting from the primary vaccination series. The Commission will closely monitor newly emerging scientific evidence on this issue. On the basis of such evidence, the Commission may, if needed, propose an appropriate acceptance period also for vaccination certificates issued following a booster.

The EU traffic light map is adapted: combining new cases with a region’s vaccine uptake. The map would be mainly for information purposes, but would also serve to coordinate measures for areas with particularly low (‘green’) or particularly high level (‘dark red’) of circulation of the virus. For these areas, specific rules would apply by derogation from the ‘persons-based approach’. For travellers from ‘green’ areas, no restrictions should be applied. Travel to and from ‘dark red’ areas should be discouraged, given the high number of new infections there, and persons who are neither vaccinated nor have recovered from the virus should be required to undergo a pre-departure test and quarantine after arrival (with special rules for essential travelers and children under 12 years old).

Exemptions from certain travel measures: should apply for cross-border commuters, children under 12 and essential travellers. The list of essential travellers should be reduced as many travellers included in the current list have had the opportunity to be vaccinated in the meantime.

Simplified ‘emergency brake’ procedure: the emergency procedure intended to delay the spread of possible new COVID-19 variants or address particularly serious situations should be simplified and more operational. It would include a Member State notification to the Commission and the Council and a roundtable at the Council’s Integrated Political Crisis Response (IPCR).

To allow for sufficient time for the coordinated approach to be implemented, the Commission proposes that these updates apply as of 10 January 2022.
Background
On 3 September 2020, the Commission made a proposal for a Council Recommendation to ensure that any measures taken by Member States that restrict free movement due to the coronavirus pandemic are coordinated and clearly communicated at EU level.
On 13 October 2020, EU Member States committed to ensuring more coordination and better information sharing by adopting the Council Recommendation.
On 1 February 2021, the Council adopted a first update to the Council Recommendation, which introduced a new colour, ‘dark red’, for the mapping of risk areas and set out stricter measures applied to travellers from high-risk areas.
On 20 May 2021, the Council amended the Council Recommendation to allow non-essential travel for fully vaccinated people, as well as to strengthen the measures to contain the spread of variants of concern.
On 14 June 2021, the Parliament and the Council adopted the Regulation establishing the EU Digital COVID Certificate framework. To make best use of the EU Digital COVID Certificate, the Council adopted, on the same day, a second update to the Council Recommendation, providing for exemptions from travel restrictions for fully vaccinated and recovered persons.
Since June 2021, the rollout of the EU Digital COVID Certificate has progressed at rapid pace. On 18 October 2021, the Commission issued the first report on the EU Digital COVID Certificate system, a widely available and reliably accepted tool to facilitate free movement during the COVID-19 pandemic.
In view of these developments, the common approach set out in Council Recommendation (EU) 2020/1475 should be adapted further, which was also a request made by the European Council in its conclusions of 22 October 2021.
In parallel, as done for the EU DCC Regulation, the Commission adopted today a proposal to cover also third country nationals lawfully residing in the EU and third country nationals who have legally entered the territory of a Member State, who may move freely within the territories of all other Member States during no more than 90 days in any 180-day period. The latest information on travel rules as communicated by Member States are available on the Re-open EU website.
Compliments of the European Commission.
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European Semester Autumn Package: rebounding stronger from the crisis and making Europe greener and more digital

Today, the European Commission has launched the 2022 European Semester cycle of economic policy coordination. The European Semester Autumn Package includes the Annual Sustainable Growth Survey, Opinions on euro area Draft Budgetary Plans (DBPs) for 2022, policy recommendations for the euro area and the Commission’s proposal for a Joint Employment Report.
The package draws upon the Autumn 2021 Economic Forecast which noted that the European economy is moving from recovery to expansion but is now facing new headwinds.
Annual Sustainable Growth Survey
This year’s Annual Sustainable Growth Survey (ASGS) puts forward an ambitious agenda for 2022 that steers the EU away from crisis management towards a sustainable and fair recovery that strengthens the EU economy’s resilience. It also sets out how the Recovery and Resilience Facility(RRF), the centrepiece of NextGenerationEU – will be more deeply integrated into the new European Semester cycle. This will ensure synergies between these processes and avoid unnecessary administrative burdens for Member States. Moreover, the ASGS lays down how the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will be further integrated into the European Semester to provide a fully updated and consistent SDG reporting across Member States.
The Recovery and Resilience Facility, with a budget of €723.8 billion in grants and loans, will have a central role in building a resilient economy that puts fairness at its heart. With the EU’s priorities embedded in the RRF, the European Semester will now better guide Member States in making a success of the green and digital transitions, and building a more resilient EU economy.
As of today, the Commission has endorsed 22 national recovery and resilience plans and the Council has approved all of these. This has unlocked pre-financing disbursements of €52.3 billion for 17 Member States since August 2021. Overall, the plans approved by the Council so far represent €291 billion in grants and €154 billion in loans. The focus now turns to implementing the recovery plans on the ground.
RRF pre-financing disbursements have already started providing valuable contributions to the four dimensions of competitive sustainability outlined in the Annual Sustainable Growth Survey:  environmental sustainability, productivity, fairness and macroeconomic stability.
The Commission also calls upon Member States to ensure that national reforms and investments reflect the priorities identified in the Annual Sustainable Growth Survey.
Opinions on the Draft Budgetary Plans of euro area Member States
The Commission’s Opinions on the 2022 DBPs are based on the fiscal policy recommendations adopted by the Council in June 2021. They take into account the continued application in 2022 of the general escape clause of the Stability and Growth Pact.
Member States are unwinding the temporary emergency measures and increasingly focusing support measures on sustaining the recovery. RRF grants will in 2022 fund 24% of total recovery support measures. The absorption of RRF grants is set to be frontloaded: Member States are expected to spend over 40% of the total amount of allocated RRF grants, pending the decision to disburse following the fulfilment of the milestones and targets. Nationally financed investment is planned to be preserved or broadly preserved in 2022 in all Member States, as recommended by the Council.
The euro area fiscal stance is projected to be expansionary over the 2020-2022 period. The positive contribution coming from public investment and other capital spending financed by both the national and EU budgets is important, but the main driver of the fiscal expansion in 2021 and 2022 is nationally financed net current primary expenditure. In several Member States including some high-debt ones, the projected supportive fiscal stance is set to be driven by higher nationally financed current spending, or by unfunded tax cuts. In some cases, this is expected to have a sizeable impact on the underlying fiscal position. In about a quarter of Member States the supportive fiscal stance is expected to be driven by investment, both nationally and EU financed.
Euro area recommendation and Alert Mechanism Report
The recommendation on the economic policy of the euro area presents tailored advice to euro area Member States on those topics that affect the functioning of the euro area as a whole. It recommends that euro area Member States take action over 2022-23, individually and collectively within the Eurogroup, to continue to use and coordinate national fiscal policies to effectively underpin a sustainable recovery. The recommendation calls for a moderately supportive fiscal stance to be maintained in 2022 across the euro area and for fiscal policy measures to gradually pivot towards investments that promote a resilient and sustainable recovery. Likewise, it highlights the importance of a transition from emergency to recovery measures in labour markets by ensuring effective active labour market policies, in line with the Commission Recommendation on an Effective Active Support to Employment following the COVID-19 crisis (EASE). Euro area Member States should maintain an agile fiscal policy to be able to react if pandemic risks re-emerge. Once economic conditions allow, euro area Member States should pursue fiscal policies aimed at achieving prudent medium-term fiscal positions and ensuring debt sustainability, while enhancing investment. The recommendation also calls for work to continue on completing the Banking Union, strengthening the international role of the euro, and for supporting the process of creating a digital euro.
The Alert Mechanism Report (AMR) is a screening measure to detect potential macroeconomic imbalances. This year’s AMR concludes that in-depth reviews (IDRs) are warranted for 12 Member States: Croatia, Cyprus, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Spain, and Sweden. These Member States were subject to an IDR in the previous annual Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) surveillance cycle, and were considered to be experiencing imbalances (Croatia, France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Spain, and Sweden) or excessive imbalances (Cyprus, Greece, and Italy). The new IDRs will assess how those imbalances have developed, analysing their gravity, evolution and the policy response delivered by Member States, to update existing assessments and assess possible remaining policy needs.
Steps under the Stability and Growth Pact in relation to Romania
Romania has been under the excessive deficit procedure (EDP) since April 2020 due to the breach of the Treaty deficit threshold in 2019. In June 2021, the Council adopted a new recommendation to Romania to bring an end to Romania’s excessive government deficit by 2024 at the latest.
In light of the achieved intermediate target for 2021, the Commission considers that no decision on further steps in Romania’s EDP should be taken at this juncture. It will reassess Romania’s budgetary situation once a new government has presented a budget for 2022 and a medium-term fiscal strategy.
Enhanced surveillance report and post-programme surveillance reports
The twelfth enhanced surveillance report for Greece finds that the country has further progressed towards achieving the agreed commitments, despite delays encountered in some areas which are partly linked to the challenging circumstances caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the catastrophic wildfires in August 2021. The report could serve as a basis for the Eurogroup to decide on the release of the next set of policy-contingent debt measures.
The post-programme surveillance reports for Spain, Portugal, Cyprus and Ireland find that all four Member States retain their capacity to service their outstanding debt.
Proposal for a Joint Employment Report
The Joint Employment Report (JER) confirms that the labour market is recovering, though employment is not yet back to pre-crisis levels. The COVID-19 crisis affected in particular young people, workers in non-standard forms of employment, the self-employed and third-country nationals. Sectors with high demand are already experiencing labour shortages. At the same time, a number of businesses are emerging from the crisis with considerable financial difficulties, and some jobs may disappear while others will be created through the green and digital transition. Against this background, active labour market policies and notably support to job transitions is becoming particularly important. Participation in adult learning remains far from standard practice throughout the EU and has been impacted by the pandemic, with wide differences across Member States. Therefore, ensuring that people have the right skills needed for the labour markets of the future remains a challenge. Finally, social protection systems helped weather the COVID-19 crisis without substantial increases in poverty risks or income inequality. This was also thanks to the substantial support at EU and Member State level, for example through short-time work schemes and other job retention measures introduced or extended during the crisis financed via the SURE instrument. Nevertheless, social protection gaps remain in many countries, in particular for non-standard workers and the self-employed. The analysis in the 2022 JER relies on the revised Social Scoreboard that now supports the monitoring of 18 of the 20 principles of the European Pillar of Social Rights. This will contribute to comprehensively assessing key employment and social challenges in Member States. At the Porto Social Summit, EU leaders endorsed the European Pillar of Social Rights Action Plan which sets three EU headline targets on employment, skills and poverty reduction by 2030, and these targets are now integrated into the JER.
Members of the College said:
Valdis Dombrovskis, Executive Vice-President for An Economy that Works for People said: “As we shift gear from crisis management towards growth-friendly investments for the future, the priority now is to put the right reforms and investments into place for Europe to stage an inclusive, lasting and sustainable recovery. While the Recovery and Resilience Facility will provide the financing structure, Member States can also rely on the European Semester as the policy compass for the way ahead. Its regular guidance will help them to advance the green and digital transitions, give their economies the boost they need, and reinforce our collective resilience to future shocks. The Semester will also help them to address new as well as legacy risks that may hamper the recovery. In addition, we will need to focus on strengthening companies, getting more people into quality jobs, removing barriers to investment and coordinating policies to preserve the EU’s fiscal sustainability.”
Paolo Gentiloni, Commissioner for Economy, said: “The European economy is growing strongly but being buffeted by headwinds: sharply increasing COVID cases, spiking inflation and ongoing supply-chain issues. This complex economic picture calls for carefully calibrated policies: we need to both keep the recovery on track and shift towards a more sustainable, competitive and inclusive growth model for the post-pandemic era. For the euro area, we call for a moderately supportive fiscal stance for 2022, with a focus on investment, equipping workers with new skills and safeguarding the solvency of viable firms. Macroeconomic imbalances, which the pandemic has in many cases exacerbated, require close attention. The Recovery and Resilience Facility is now being implemented in 22 EU countries, which aim to spend around 40% of their total grant allocation in 2022 alone. Making a success of this will perhaps be the greatest challenge – and opportunity – for the coming year.”
Nicolas Schmit, Commissioner for Jobs and Social Rights, said: “Active labour market policies, including skilling and hiring incentives, need to be at the centre of our work to smoothen out the negative impacts of the pandemic. This will ease job-to-job transitions and ensure that the green and digital transitions are fair and inclusive. Along with more investment in skills, it is also imperative to look at working conditions, which will also help address the labour shortage in some sectors. We are supporting people to move to new, future-proof jobs but we also need to ensure the quality of these new types of jobs.”
Next steps
The Commission invites the Eurogroup and the Council to discuss the package and endorse the guidance offered today. It looks forward to engaging in a constructive dialogue with the European Parliament on the contents of this package and each subsequent step in the European Semester cycle.
Background
The European Semester provides a well-established framework for coordinating economic and employment policies of the Member States, and will continue to play this role in the recovery phase and in advancing on the green and digital transition. The policy priorities will be structured, like in previous years, around the four dimensions of competitive sustainability and in line with the Sustainable Development Goals.
The Recovery and Resilience Facility is the centrepiece of NextGenerationEU with €723.8 billion in loans and grants available to support reforms and investments undertaken by EU countries. The aim is to mitigate the economic and social impact of the coronavirus pandemic and make European economies and societies more sustainable, resilient and better prepared for the challenges and opportunities of the green and digital transitions.
Compliments of the European Commission.
The post European Semester Autumn Package: rebounding stronger from the crisis and making Europe greener and more digital first appeared on European American Chamber of Commerce New York [EACCNY] | Your Partner for Transatlantic Business Resources.

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Key Findings | Quarterly EU Economic Update: A Rocky Road to Recovery

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On November 17, 2021, the European Union Delegation to the United States partnered with the European American Chamber of Commerce – New York (EACCNY) to convene a webinar to discuss how Europe’s Recovery and Resilience Facility – its largest investment package ever – will put Europe’s economic rebound on a solid footing by promoting green and digital transitions while supporting structural reforms that should boost long-term growth and productivity.
The discussion explored the momentum behind the region’s economic recovery and provided analytical context to the newly released autumn 2021 Economic Forecast and, specifically, the solid growth numbers that the EU economy is experiencing – growth that is expected to continue into 2022.
The event featured the European Delegation to the United States’ Counsellor for Economic and Financial Affairs, Balazs Parkanyi, and Senior Economist, Ben Carliner, and was moderated by the Executive Director of the European American Chamber of Commerce New York Chapter, Yvonne Bendinger-Rothschild.
The speakers noted that how a robust policy response helped lay the groundwork for the recovery. Jobs and household incomes were supported by a variety of measures, perhaps most notably through short-time work schemes that kept workers attached to their jobs throughout the pandemic and avoided the sharp increase in unemployment experienced in some other jurisdictions. Domestic demand is set to drive growth going forward, while the RRF should ‘crowd-in’ private investment with strategic investments in climate and digital infrastructure.
A number of headwinds, from Covid-related supply shortages and logistical bottlenecks, to higher energy and raw material prices, are weighing on output. Similar issues have confronted the United States, which has experienced longer-than-expected supply chain challenges and rising inflation at a higher pace than the EU.
The European Commission believes these headwinds largely will prove transitory, with energy prices forecast to fall back by the spring and supply chain bottlenecks slowly easing as businesses invest in new capacity and consumption shifts from goods back to services.
Analysts expect policy makers on both sides of the Atlantic will next focus on new, medium- to long-term investment in green and digital technologies that will further boost growth and productivity.
The discussion was recorded and is available to view on the EACCNY YouTube page.
Compliments of the European Delegation to the United States.
The post Key Findings | Quarterly EU Economic Update: A Rocky Road to Recovery first appeared on European American Chamber of Commerce New York [EACCNY] | Your Partner for Transatlantic Business Resources.

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U.S. FED | Agencies issue joint statement on crypto-asset policy initiative and next steps

Federal bank regulatory agencies today issued a statement summarizing their interagency “policy sprints” focused on crypto-assets and providing a roadmap of future work related to crypto-assets.
In particular, the statement describes the focus of the preliminary work conducted through the sprints undertaken by the agencies. It summarizes the agencies’ plan to provide greater clarity throughout 2022 on whether certain crypto-related activities conducted by banking organizations are legally permissible, and related expectations for safety and soundness, consumer protection, and compliance with existing law and regulations.
The emerging crypto-asset sector presents potential opportunities and risks to banking organizations, their customers, and the overall financial system. The interagency sprints quickly advanced and built on agencies’ combined knowledge, which helped identify and assess key issues related to potential crypto-asset activities conducted by banking organizations.
The statement from the agencies does not alter any existing agency rules or regulations.

Joint Statement on Crypto-Asset Policy Sprint Initiative and Next Steps (PDF)

Compliments of the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The post U.S. FED | Agencies issue joint statement on crypto-asset policy initiative and next steps first appeared on European American Chamber of Commerce New York [EACCNY] | Your Partner for Transatlantic Business Resources.