Since our last forecast was published in March, we have continued to see a relatively rapid change in economic policies. We recognize that the policy environment remains very fluid, so none of our scenario forecasts are meant to be a precise estimate of where the US economy ends up in the future. Instead, we have developed three scenarios to provide a guide as to where the economy might go from here based on explicit assumptions. Our baseline forecast incorporates assumptions that reflect our best guess of how different economic policies will evolve. Our downside and upside scenarios reflect plausible outcomes for the US economy should our assumptions prove to be overly optimistic or pessimistic, respectively.1
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Jun