WASHINGTON, Nov. 18, 2025 – The World Bank Group today announced the appointment of Paschal Donohoe as Managing Director and Chief Knowledge Officer. Donohoe has served as Ireland’s Minister for Finance since January 2025, and as President of the Eurogroup of finance ministers since July 2020. His extensive experience spans both the public and private sectors, including nearly a decade at Procter & Gamble.
“Paschal brings more than twenty years of public service, and knows firsthand how good policies can unleash private capital mobilization, boost growth, and generate jobs,” said World Bank Group President Ajay Banga. “He also brings extensive knowledge of how investors, private sector, financial companies, technology firms, and others operate – from his near decade of experience in the private sector. This combination will be invaluable at ensuring the World Bank Group delivers more impact at scale.”
As Chief Knowledge Officer, Donohoe will lead on shaping, managing, and leveraging the institution’s Knowledge Bank—a force multiplier in the mission to fight poverty and improve quality of life in emerging markets and developing economies. He will ensure that the World Bank Group offers its sovereign and private clients proven solutions that can be used at scale, based on the best combination of expertise in regulations, technological advances, and development innovations. He will also be responsible for the World Bank Group’s strategic engagement with governments, civil society, foundations and philanthropies.
“It is a tremendous honor to take up this role at the World Bank, as Managing Director and Chief Knowledge Officer,” said Paschal Donohoe. “In more than twenty years as a public representative, my motivation has been to improve the lives of all of the people I represent and to foster engagement and cooperation as the best means of progressing vital issues.”
“By encouraging collaboration with, and between, governments and global institutions we can make progress and meet the challenges we face head-on. This has been a key and continuous theme of my public life and the work that I have done. The need for this has never been greater than it is today. I look forward to playing a central role at the World Bank in making the case for this cooperation at a time of great change in our world.”
Donohoe has been recognized with several honors, including European of the Year by the European Movement of Ireland, and the prestigious Chevalier de la Légion d’Honneur from the French Government.
He will start in the new role on November 24.
 
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By Alessandro De Sanctis, Roberto A. De Santis, Daniel Kapp and Francesca Vinci
To bridge Europe’s investment gap, we need both public and private funding. Well-designed EU investment programmes can act as a major catalyst for private capital. As this blog post shows, every euro invested by the EU is matched by private finance, thereby doubling its impact.

Europe is facing an unprecedented need for investment to support its green, digital and defence transitions. On current estimates, this will require additional spending of around €1,200 billion a year between 2025 and 2031. That is a significant increase from the €800 billion estimated just one year ago.[1]
To meet this challenge, public and private financing are both essential.[2] Even under optimistic assumptions, the combined national fiscal space available for additional government spending and the existing EU resources would still leave a substantial funding gap of over €100 billion a year. EU investment programmes can play a decisive role in bridging this gap. In this blog post, we look at how these programmes can help unlock private investment and boost productivity. Among other findings, we show that every euro invested by the EU is matched by private capital, more than doubling its impact.
The role of EU programmes
Amounting to just 1% of the total gross national income of all the Member States, the EU budget is modest compared with its national counterparts. Its effectiveness in supporting investment thus depends on its ability to harness additional resources. With this in mind, various budget instruments have been designed not only to finance public investment but also to mobilise private capital.
The European Structural and Investment (ESI) funds are central to these efforts. For over 25 years, they have served as the EU’s primary investment instrument. These funds help drive progress by supporting infrastructure, innovation and business development across the Union. ESI funds fulfil a dual purpose. First, they promote regional convergence by channelling more resources to less developed regions. Second, they enhance competitiveness by financing investments aligned with key policy priorities, such as fostering innovation, advancing digital technologies and accelerating the green transition.
Moreover, ESI funding is designed to leverage additional financial resources thanks to mandatory national co-financing. This ensures that EU investments are consistently complemented by domestic funds.[3]
“Crowding in” versus “crowding out”
When a government increases investment, the effects can ripple across the economy. Projects such as high-speed rail systems, digital networks and renewable energy grids can enhance productivity and stimulate additional private investment. This phenomenon of public investment attracting private activity is known as “crowding in”. However, large-scale public investment can also increase the demand for resources, potentially leading to higher prices and greater borrowing costs. This can discourage private sector initiative – a phenomenon referred to as “crowding out”.
The actual outcome ultimately depends on the economic setting and the quality of the public investment. Well-planned and carefully executed projects can yield lasting productivity gains that outweigh possible short-term pressures on demand. Conversely, poorly designed investment projects are more likely to raise the risk of crowding out, thus undermining the intended economic benefits.
Evidence from recent research
In a recent study, De Santis and Vinci (2025)[4] provide empirical evidence on the impact of ESI funds on private investment across EU regions between 2000 and 2021. Using advanced econometric methods, their research finds significant crowding-in effects. Over a two-year period, every euro of ESI funding generated €1.10 of private investment and €0.10 of business research and development (R&D) (see Chart 1). These findings underscore the effectiveness of ESI funds as a catalyst for private investment and innovation. European investment contributes significantly to long-term economic growth, while also advancing the EU’s green and digital transitions.

Chart 1
Impact of ESI funds on private investment and R&D

a) Private Investment

b) Business R&D

(estimated effect of €1 of ESI funds)

(estimated effect of €1 of ESI funds)

Source: De Santis, R.A. and Vinci, F. (2025), “Private investment, R&D and European Structural and Investment Funds: crowding-in or crowding-out?”, Working Paper Series, No 3098, ECB, Frankfurt am Main, August. Illustrations replicate the results presented in Tables 4 and 5.
Notes: The estimation entails a local projection, regressing the change in ESI funding on the change in private investment and business research and development (both scaled by regional gross value added (GVA), with an instrumental variable approach. The change in predicted ESI funding is employed as the instrument. This is constructed, for a given region, as the average ESI funds absorption rate in a given year in regions with similar characteristics but located in other countries, multiplied by the ESI funds allocation to the region at the beginning of the programming period. The specification controls for previous-year regional GVA growth, the one-year lag of the dependent variable, contemporaneous changes in government spending (normalised by previous-year real GDP) and changes in each country’s ten-year sovereign yield, as well as year and region fixed effects. The top and bottom 2% of observations are winsorised. The sample covers 24 EU Member States over the period 2000-21. Confidence intervals are reported at the 90% level.

ESI funds boost firms’ productivity
A small share of ESI funds is allocated directly to firms. This gives us a unique opportunity to assess their impact on firm-level outcomes and see how effective the EU programmes are in improving firm performance.
So just how effective are ESI funds in enhancing investment and productivity?
An ECB paper by De Sanctis, Kapp, Vinci and Wojciechowski (2025)[5] looks at these questions, focusing on firms’ performance during the 2014-2020 programming period for EU funding. Their research reveals that ESI-funded firms steadily increased their capital stock by 15%. In other words, they continued to invest in and expand their fixed assets year after year. These firms also experienced long-lasting gains in productivity, which rose by 3% over four years (Chart 2, panels a and b). Moreover, the study finds that financially constrained firms increased their debt and capital to a greater extent. These findings suggest that ESI funds do indeed play a pivotal role in facilitating access to finance (Chart 2, panels c and d).

Chart 2
Impact of receiving ESI funds on firms’ outcomes

a) Capital

b) Total factor productivity

(percentage)

(percentage)

c) Heterogeneity: impact on capital for financially constrained vs non-financially constrained firms

d) Heterogeneity: impact on leverage ratio for financially constrained vs non-financially constrained firms

(percentage)

(percentage)

Source: De Sanctis, A., Kapp, D., Vinci, F. and Wojciechowski, R. (2025), “Unlocking growth? EU investment programmes and firm performance “,Working Paper Series, No 3099, ECB, Frankfurt am Main, August.
Notes: The estimation uses a local projection difference-in-differences approach to evaluate the impact of receiving EU funding through the ESI funds on firms’ outcomes, specifically changes in capital and total factor productivity. The control group consists of firms who have not yet received funding, with time measured relative to the year of first funding within the 2014–20 programming period. A coefficient of 0.01 corresponds to a 1% growth effect. Confidence intervals are reported at the 99% level. The regression includes controls for the lagged values of total assets, sales growth, current ratio, capital-to-labour ratio, sales-to-assets ratio and firm age, as well as year, sector and region (NUTS 2) fixed effects. The variable “finc” indicates financial constraints: “finc = 1” denotes constrained firms and “finc = 0” unconstrained firms. The leverage ratio is defined as the ratio of a firm’s debt to its total assets.

Policy takeaways
As we have seen, synergies between private investment and targeted public investment are critical to addressing Europe’s significant investment needs. ESI funds have proven to be an effective public investment tool, not only in driving infrastructure and regional development but also in enhancing firms’ investment capacity and productivity. Admittedly, there is still room for improvement, particularly in areas such as governance, the timely allocation of resources and the promotion of cross-border investment. And yet, the positive overall experience offers valuable lessons for future initiatives, and ESI funds can serve as an important benchmark when designing new programmes. As the EU prepares its 2028-34 budget, it is vital to prioritise investment programmes that crowd in private capital and boost productivity across Europe.
The views expressed in each blog entry are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the European Central Bank and the Eurosystem.
Check out The ECB Blog and subscribe for future posts.
For topics relating to banking supervision, why not have a look at The Supervision Blog?

See Bouabdallah, O., Dorrucci, E., Nerlich, C., Nickel, C. and Vlad, A. (2025), Time to be strategic: how public money could power Europe’s green, digital and defence transitions, The ECB Blog, ECB, 25 July.
While private capital remains a cornerstone of investment, the additional burden on national and EU budgets has risen sharply to €510 billion a year. It now accounts for 43% of total investment needs, largely owing to a heavier dependence on public budgets for defence spending.
The EU also uses other instruments to finance investment and innovation, many of which are based, to some degree, on the ESI model. The Next Generation EU programme, launched in response to the pandemic crisis, scaled up EU support for investment. The InvestEU programme, which started operating in 2021, aims to reduce the risks of financing innovative or long-term projects through the European Investment Bank and other partners by leveraging EU budget guarantees. The Horizon Europe programme, in place since 2021, supports frontier research and innovation that is often too risky for private finance alone.
De Santis, R.A. and Vinci, F. (2025), “Private investment, R&D and European Structural and Investment Funds: crowding-in or crowding-out?”, Working Paper Series, No 3098, ECB, Frankfurt am Main, August.
De Sanctis, A., Kapp, D., Vinci, F. and Wojciechowski, R. (2025), “Unlocking growth? EU investment programmes and firm performance“, Working Paper Series, No 3099, ECB, Frankfurt am Main, August.

 
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The OECD has released an update to the Model Tax Convention on Income and on Capital, providing new and detailed guidance on short-term cross-border remote work and on the taxation of income from natural resource extraction. The update, approved by the OECD Council, aims to provide greater certainty for governments and businesses worldwide.
The 2025 Update to the OECD Model Tax Convention on Income and on Capital clarifies when remote work across borders, such as from a home office, creates a taxable presence for business. This responds to the rise in such arrangements following the COVID-19 pandemic. The update also introduces a new alternative provision setting out how income from activities connected with the extraction of natural resources such as oil, gas and minerals should be taxed, a measure that is particularly relevant for developing and other resource-endowed economies. These changes aim to enhance tax certainty and support fair and efficient cross-border business taxation.
• Remote working: Clear guidance on how cross-border “home office” arrangements are treated under tax treaties, providing certainty for employers and employees.
• Natural resources: A new alternative tax treaty provision to ensure that income from activities connected with natural resources extraction is taxed where it occurs, reinforcing source-country rights and supporting resource-endowed developing economies.
• Other improvements: Additional refinements to enhance consistency in treaty interpretation and strengthen tax certainty.
“By clarifying the rules for remote work and reinforcing source taxation for extractive industries, this update helps countries and businesses navigate a rapidly evolving global landscape,” said OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann. “It also demonstrates the importance and continued relevance of multilateral co-operation in delivering practical solutions to modern tax challenges.”
Used by governments, tax authorities, businesses, and practitioners in both OECD and non-OECD Member countries, the OECD Model Tax Convention is a cornerstone of the international tax system, helping to reduce tax obstacles and promote cross-border trade and investment. These updates reflect the realities of a global economy where remote work and digital mobility are here to stay. They also underline the importance of multilateral co-operation in addressing shared challenges and ensuring that tax systems keep pace with economic change.
The updates published today will be reflected in revised condensed and full editions of the OECD Model Tax Convention to be released in 2026. A webinar presenting the 2025 Updates will be hosted by the OECD on 10 December featuring Manal Corwin, Director of the OECD Centre for Tax Policy and Administration, alongside OECD experts.
 
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The European Commission welcomes the provisional political agreement reached today between the European Parliament and the Council on the EU Talent Pool. Once in place, the EU Talent Pool will be the first EU-wide platform to facilitate international recruitment of jobseekers residing outside the EU. This is a key step in making the EU more attractive to skilled talent from outside the EU, and hence more competitive globally.
As part of the EU’s comprehensive approach to migration set out in the Pact on Migration and Asylum, the Talent Pool will offer opportunities for labour mobility and contribute to the EU’s competitiveness agenda  by helping Member States attract and retain global talent. Participation in the Talent Pool is voluntary for Member States.
This new platform will make it easier for employers across the EU to identify and recruit jobseekers from non-EU countries for occupations facing labour shortages within the EU. Jobseekers from third countries will be able to register their profiles on the platform and showcase their skills, qualifications, work experience and language knowledge. This will give EU employers access to a broader pool of talent. The job vacancies of EU employers from participating Member States will be available in the EU Talent Pool, allowing jobseekers to find jobs that match their skills.
The Talent Pool will also support the implementation of Talent Partnerships, a Commission initiative to match  the skills of workers from countries outside the EU with the labour market needs inside the EU, while engaging partner countries strategically on broader migration management cooperation including the prevention of illegal migration. Jobseekers who have developed their skills under a Talent Partnership will be able to flag them in their profiles on the EU Talent Pool platform.  In addition, the Talent Pool will also support the implementation of future European legal gateway offices, starting with the EU-India pilot, aimed to facilitated skilled labour mobility.
Next Steps
The regulation must now be formally adopted by the European Parliament and the Council. As soon as the regulation enters into force, the Commission will develop the platform, with the aim of making it operational as soon as possible.
Participating Member States will set up National Contact Points to support the implementation of the tool.
Background
The EU Talent Pool proposal was presented in 2023 as part of the Commission’s Skills and Talent Mobility package, delivering on President Ursula von der Leyen‘s commitment to make the EU more attractive to talent from outside the EU. It is also a deliverable of the Union of Skills and part of the comprehensive approach to migration under the Pact on Migration and Asylum.
 
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Inflationary Pressures Ease, But Geopolitical Tensions Cloud Outlook
WASHINGTON, October 29, 2025—Global commodity prices are projected to fall to their lowest level in six years in 2026, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline, according to the World Bank Group’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook. Prices are forecast to drop by 7% in both 2025 and 2026, driven by weak global economic growth, a growing oil surplus, and persistent policy uncertainty.
Falling energy prices are helping to ease global inflation, while lower rice and wheat prices have helped make food more affordable in some developing countries. Despite the recent declines, however, commodity prices remain above pre-pandemic levels, with prices in 2025 and 2026 projected to be 23% and 14% higher, respectively, than in 2019.
“Commodity markets are helping to stabilize the global economy,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics. “Falling energy prices have contributed to the decline in global consumer-price inflation. But this respite will not last. Governments should use it to get their fiscal house in order, make economies business-ready, and accelerate trade and investment.”
The global oil glut has expanded significantly in 2025 and is expected to rise next year to 65% above the most recent high, in 2020. Oil demand is growing more slowly as demand for electric and hybrid vehicles grows and oil consumption stagnates in China. Brent crude oil prices are forecast to fall from an average of $68 in 2025 to $60 in 2026—a five-year low. Overall, energy prices are forecast to fall by 12% in 2025 and a further 10% in 2026.
Food prices are also easing, with declines of 6.1% projected in 2025 and 0.3% in 2026. Soybean prices are falling in 2025 because of record production and trade tensions but are expected to stabilize over the next two years. Meanwhile, coffee and cocoa prices are forecast to fall in 2026 as supply conditions improve. However, fertilizer prices are projected to surge 21% in 2025, reflecting higher input costs and trade restrictions, before easing 5% in 2026. These increases are likely to further erode farmers’ profit margins and raise concerns about future crop yields.
Precious metals have reached record highs in 2025, fueled by demand for safe-haven assets and continued central bank purchases. The price of gold—widely viewed as a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty—is expected to increase by 42% in 2025. It is projected to increase by a further 5% next year, leaving gold prices at nearly double their 2015-2019 average. Silver prices are also expected to hit a record annual average in 2025, rising by 34% and further 8% in 2026.
Commodity prices could fall more than expected during the forecast horizon if global growth remains sluggish amid prolonged trade tensions and policy uncertainty. Greater-than-expected oil output from OPEC+ could deepen the oil glut and exert additional downward pressure on energy prices. Electric-vehicle sales, which are expected to increase sharply by 2030, could further depress oil demand.
Conversely, geopolitical tensions and conflicts could push oil prices higher and boost demand for safe-haven commodities such as gold and silver. In the case of oil, the market impact of additional sanctions could also lift prices above the baseline forecast. Extreme weather from a stronger-than-expected La Niña cycle could disrupt agricultural output and increase electricity demand for heating and cooling, adding further pressure to food and energy prices. Meanwhile, the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) and growing electricity demand to power data centers could raise prices for energy and for base metals like aluminum and copper, which are essential for AI infrastructure.
“Lower oil prices provide a timely opportunity for developing economies to advance fiscal reforms that promote growth and job creation,” said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group. “Phasing out costly fuel subsidies can free up resources for infrastructure and human capital—areas that create jobs and strengthen long-term productivity. Such reforms would help shift spending from consumption to investment, rebuilding fiscal space while supporting more durable job creation.”
The report’s special focus section examines the history of international commodity agreements in the context of today’s volatile commodity markets. It finds that while many past efforts—such as inventory controls, production quotas, and trade restrictions—helped stabilize prices for some commodities in the short term, few achieved lasting results. The most enduring international commodity agreement, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), has struggled to sustain market power especially when prices are high—because higher prices tend to draw new competitors into the market. Instead of using price-control schemes, the report recommends that countries foster more diverse and efficient production, invest in technology and innovation, improve data transparency, and promote market-based pricing to build long-term resilience to price volatility.
 
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The Council and the European Parliament have agreed on the EU’s annual budget for 2026. Next year’s budget will focus on delivering Union priorities and dealing with ongoing challenges. It will boost competitiveness, strengthen Europe’s defence readiness and preparedness, provide support for humanitarian assistance and address migratory pressures.
At the same time, the budget safeguards the flexibility to react swiftly and effectively to unforeseen needs and crises.
The 2026 budget amounts to €192.8 billion in total commitments and €190.1 billion in total payments. €715.7 million has been kept available this year under the expenditure ceilings of the current multiannual financial framework for 2021-2027, allowing the EU to react to unforeseeable needs.

“Today’s agreement shows that Europe can deliver, even in challenging times. The 2026 EU budget will allow us to deliver on our common priorities – security, competitiveness and border control – all while ensuring that the EU can react swiftly and effectively to unforeseen needs and crises.”
– Nicolai Wammen, Minister for Finance of Denmark and chief Council negotiator for the 2026 EU budget

 
2026 EU budget (in € million)

Headings
Commitments
Payments

1. Single market, innovation and digital
22,163.0
23,336.6

2. Cohesion, resilience and values
71,649.8
73,166.7

3. Natural resources and environment
56,529.4
52,577.3

4. Migration and border management
5,018.9
3,887.9

5. Security and defence
2,813.5
2,253.3

6. Neighbourhood and the world
15,600.0
16,569.7

7. European public administration
13,277.5
13,277.5

Special instruments
5,715.9
5,022.5

Total
192,768.1
190,091.6

Appropriations as % of GNI (gross national income)
1,00%
0,99%

Commitments are legal promises to spend money on activities whose implementation extends over several financial years. Payments cover expenditure arising from commitments made for the EU budget during current and preceding financial years.
This is the sixth annual budget under the EU’s long-term budget, the multiannual financial framework (MFF) for 2021-2027. The 2026 budget is complemented by actions to support the COVID-19 recovery under NextGenerationEU, the EU’s plan to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Next steps
The European Parliament and the Council now have 14 days to formally approve the agreement reached. The Council is expected to endorse it on 24 November. Adoption of the budget requires a qualified majority within the Council.
 
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The European Commission’s Autumn 2025 Economic Forecast shows that growth in the first three quarters of 2025 outperformed expectations. While the strong performance was initially driven by a surge in exports in anticipation of tariff increases, the EU economy continued to grow in the third quarter. Looking ahead, economic activity is expected to continue expanding at a moderate pace over the forecast horizon, despite a challenging external environment.
This year’s Autumn Forecast projects real GDP to grow by 1.4% in the EU in 2025 and 2026, edging up to 1.5% in 2027. The euro area is expected to mirror this trend, with real GDP projected to grow by 1.3% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026, and 1.4% in 2027. Inflation in the euro area is forecast to continue its decline, falling to 2.1% in 2025, and to hover around 2% over the forecast horizon. In the EU, inflation is set to remain marginally higher, falling to 2.2% in 2027. 
Private consumption and investment drive growth
Latest business indicators and survey data point to sustained positive momentum in the coming quarters. Looking further ahead, the global environment remains challenging, but a resilient labour market, improving purchasing power and favourable financing conditions are set to support moderate economic growth.
In addition, the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds are cushioning the effect of fiscal consolidation in several Member States. This support underpins domestic demand, which is set to be the main driver of growth over the forecast horizon. Private consumption is expected to grow steadily, supported by the above factors, but also by a gradual decline in the saving rate. Investment is set to regain momentum, mainly driven by non-residential construction and capital spending on equipment.
The EU’s highly open economy remains susceptible to ongoing trade restrictions, but the trade deals reached between the US and its trading partners, including the EU, have alleviated some of the uncertainties that overshadowed the Spring Forecast.
The forecast assumes that all country- and sector-specific tariffs implemented by the US administration at the cut-off date of 31 October will be in place throughout the forecast horizon. Globally, trade barriers have reached historic highs, and the EU now faces higher average tariffs on exports to the US than assumed in the Spring 2025 Forecast. Nevertheless, tariffs on EU exports remain lower than those applied to several other major global players. This represents a modest relative advantage for the EU economy, albeit in a context of weak global goods trade and a strong euro tempering foreign demand.
Inflation projected to stabilise
Inflation in the euro area has been revised slightly up from the Spring Forecast. It is now expected to come down from 2.4% in 2024 to reach the ECB’s target of 2% in 2027. Trends vary across components, with decreases in services and food inflation counterbalanced by rising energy inflation. Intensifying competitive pressures from imports and the appreciation of the euro should restrain inflation in non-energy goods. Headline inflation in the EU is projected to be marginally higher than the euro area, gradually declining from 2.6% in 2024 to 2.2% in 2027. This forecast assumes that the new EU Emissions Trading System (ETS2) will enter into force in 2027, as has been legislated.
Unemployment rates decline further
The gradual slowdown of employment growth that started in 2022 continued in the first half of 2025. Still, the EU economy generated 380,000 jobs during that period. Employment is set to continue expanding moderately—by 0.5% in 2025 and 2026—before decelerating to 0.4% in 2027. The unemployment rate is anticipated to edge down further from 5.9% in 2025 and 2026 to 5.8% in 2027. Wage growth in the EU is set to slow but remain above inflation, modestly improving household purchasing power.
Government deficits to edge up 
The EU general government deficit is expected to increase from 3.1% of GDP in 2024 to 3.4% by 2027, partly due to the increase in defence spending from 1.5% of GDP in 2024 to 2% in 2027, measured according to the Classification of the Functions of Government (COFOG).
The EU debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise from 84.5% in 2024 to 85% in 2027, with the euro area ratio set to rise from around 88% to 90.4%. This reflects ongoing primary deficits and the fact that the average cost of public debt is higher than nominal GDP growth. By 2027, four Member States are expected to have debt ratios above 100% of GDP.
Challenging global environment continues to weigh on the outlook
Looking forward, risks to the growth outlook are tilted downwards.
Persistent trade policy uncertainty continues to weigh on economic activity, with tariffs and non-tariff restrictions potentially constraining EU growth more than expected.
Any further escalation of geopolitical tensions could intensify supply shocks. At the same time, repricing of risks in equity markets, especially in the US technology sector, could impact investor confidence and financing conditions. Domestic political uncertainty might also weigh on confidence. Finally, the increasing frequency of climate-related disasters could undermine growth.
On the upside, resolute progress on reforms and the competitiveness agenda, higher defence spending focused on EU production, and new trade agreements could bolster economic activity more than projected. 
Background
This forecast is based on a set of technical assumptions concerning exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices, with a cut-off date of 27 October. For all other incoming data, including assumptions about government policies, this forecast takes into consideration information up until, and including, 31 October. Unless new policies are announced and specified in adequate detail, the projections assume no policy changes.
The European Commission publishes two comprehensive forecasts (spring and autumn) each year, covering a broad range of economic indicators for all EU Member States, candidate countries, EFTA countries and other major advanced and emerging market economies.
The European Commission’s Spring 2026 Economic Forecast will update the projections in this publication and is expected to be presented in May 2026. 
 
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Today the Council adopted new rules to improve cooperation between national data protection bodies when they enforce the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) in order to speed up the process of handling cross-border data protection complaints.
The measures adopted will streamline administrative procedures relating to, for instance, the rights of complainants or the admissibility of cases, and thus make enforcement of the GDPR in cross-border cases more efficient.
Main elements of the new EU regulations
• Admissibility: The requirements for the admissibility of cross-border action – the decision if a complaint meets the conditions for being investigated – will be harmonised. Regardless of where in the EU a complaint is filed, admissibility will be judged on the basis of the same information.
• Rights of complainants and parties under investigation: Common rules will apply for the involvement of the complainant in the procedure, the right to be heard for the company or organisation that is being investigated as well as the right to receive the preliminary findings in order to express their views on it.
• Simple cooperation procedure: For straightforward cases data protection authorities can decide, in order to avoid administrative burden, to settle actions without resorting to the full set of cooperation rules.
• Deadlines: In the future an investigation should not take more than 15 months. For the most complex cases this deadline can be extended by 12 months. In the case of a simple cooperation procedure between national data protection bodies, the investigation should be wrapped up within 12 months.
Next steps
Today’s adoption by the Council is the final legislative step. The regulation will enter into force 20 days after its publication in the Official Journal of the EU. It will become applicable 15 months after its entry into force.
Background
The GDPR has put in place a system of cooperation between national data protection bodies. Those authorities, which are responsible for enforcing the GDPR, are obliged to cooperate when a data protection case concerns cross-border processing. This is the case, for instance, when the complainant resides in a member state other than that of the company under investigation.
In such cross-border cases, a single national authority will take on the role of lead authority in the investigation, but is required to cooperate with its counterparts in other member states.
 
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