U.S. pension funds that delayed rebalancing their portfolios are likely to pump about $400 billion into stocks over the next two quarters, analysts at JP Morgan said, providing a potential boost to…
U.S. pension funds that delayed rebalancing their portfolios are likely to pump about $400 billion into stocks over the next two quarters, analysts at JP Morgan said, providing a potential boost to…
Bond investor and DoubleLine Capital Chief Executive Jeffrey Gundlach said on Tuesday he believes the coronavirus sell-off is not over yet and that the lows stocks hit in March will be surpassed in…
March 31, 2020
Today we face economic upheaval potentially more severe than we witnessed during the global financial crisis. The coronavirus pandemic is a different kind of shock. Never before have modern economies shut down at the drop of a hat. From one week to the next, many workers lost their jobs and paychecks. Restaurants, hotels, and airplanes all emptied. And consumers and businesses now face steep losses in income—and potentially widespread bankruptcies.
Pressure on the banking system is growing and higher defaults on debt are imminent. And many now expect a shock to the financial sector similar in magnitude to the 2008 crisis.
Like the health experts, bank supervisors are responding to a fast-moving and extraordinary situation.
The question on the minds of policymakers is how they should prepare for this.
Just over a decade ago, global policy makers came together in an unprecedented display of coordination to launch the development of a revamped regulatory framework for the financial sector. They significantly raised the minimum standards for the quality and quantity of bank capital and liquidity and succeeded in building a more resilient banking system designed to hold buffers above the minimum that could be safely drawn down in stressed conditions.
In the current crisis, national authorities are taking a host of measures to provide fiscal support, and central banks are opening new liquidity lines. How should bank supervisors respond to ensure continued trust and confidence in the banking system?
Banking system prescription
Like the health experts, bank supervisors are responding to a fast-moving and extraordinary situation. Supervisors must combine the tools from their playbooks for dealing with natural disasters, operational risk events, and bank stress episodes. With its global vantage point, and drawing from past experience, the IMF can offer some additional guidance on the way forward:
• Don’t change the rules. Doing this in the midst of a crisis will likely cause more confusion. Likewise, be prepared to give banks time to meet rules if they fall short, and hold off on implementing new initiatives—banks should remain focused on maintaining ongoing operations, given the increased difficulties of conducting such operations remotely.
• Use the buffers. Regulators have to communicate clearly that capital and liquidity buffers should support continued bank lending, without adverse consequences for bank management. Banks built these buffers well above Basel minimum standards to manage strains on liquidity and revenue loss from missed loan repayments.
• Encourage loan modification. Supervisors should clearly communicate to banks to be proactive in rescheduling their loan portfolio for those borrowers and sectors that have been hard hit by the severe, but temporary, shock. They should also remind banks about flexible credit risk management and the accounting standards for impairment in these situations. Accounting bodies have helpfully stepped in to clarify to auditors how such modifications should be viewed once the economy begins to recover.
• Don’t hide the losses. Banks, investors, shareholders and even taxpayers have to bear them. Transparency helps prepare all stakeholders; surprises only worsen their response, as was proven during the 2008 crisis.
• Clarify regulatory treatment of support measures. Clarifying upfront how banks and regulators should treat fiscal measures, including measures directly targeted at borrowers, credit guarantees, payment holidays, direct transfers and subsidies—beyond any current guidance in the Basel capital framework—would help with overall transparency.
• Strengthen communication. Encourage continuous dialogue between supervisors and banks, especially in this unprecedented situation of working remotely with colleagues, customers, and supervisors. Typically, reporting requirements in key areas, such as liquidity and creditor positions, are enhanced in a crisis, but given operational disruptions, deferring other reporting requirements less material to assessments of financial health may make sense.
• Coordinate across borders. Banking is a global business. Broad coordination among national regulators at the international level is imperative. This crisis will pass eventually, and the effects may take time to dissipate, but preserving the integrity of the international framework will be crucial for the credibility and integrity of the global financial system. International bodies like the Financial Stability Board and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision are working night and day to do just this.
Will it be enough?
Simply put, it may be too early to tell. At this point, conditions in many countries are as severe as the adverse scenario of the stress tests that banking regulators commonly use to assess the strength of their banking systems.
And it might get worse.
All of this assumes that economic activity could restart later this year, but we have to also consider more adverse scenarios. Under more severely strained circumstances, we will have to rethink our playbook substantially. Some banking systems might have to be recapitalized or even restructured. The IMF has deep experience in helping countries rebuild distressed banking systems through its technical assistance programs, and will stand ready to help.
AUTHORS:• Tobias Adrian and Aditya Narain
Compliments of the IMF.
Invesco said on Tuesday it would sell all the unquoted companies currently held in its UK equities portfolios and has marked down their value by 60% as a result of recent coronavirus-fueled market…
Billionaire trader Steven A. Cohen is cautioning the staff of his investment firm, Point72 Asset Management, to remain cautious amid markets that have recovered slightly from coronavirus-driven lows.
Efforts to contain virus and save lives should be intensified, and governments should plan stronger, more co-ordinated measures to absorb growing economic blow.
Increasingly stringent containment measures, needed to slow the spread of the Coronavirus (Covid-19), will necessarily lead to significant short-term declines in GDP for many major economies, according to new OECD projections.
OECD Secretary General Angel Gurría, in preparation for the G20 Virtual Summit that took place yesterday, unveiled the latest OECD estimates showing that the lockdown will directly affect sectors amounting to up to one third of GDP in the major economies. For each month of containment, there will be a loss of 2 percentage points in annual GDP growth. The tourism sector alone faces an output decrease as high as 70%. Many economies will fall into recession. This is unavoidable, as we need to continue fighting the pandemic, while at the same time increasing efforts to be able to restore economic normality as fast as possible.
“The high costs that public health measures are imposing today are necessary to avoid much more tragic consequences and even worse impacts on our economies tomorrow,” Mr Gurría said, in his G20 Summit Statement. “Millions of deaths and collapsed health care systems will decimate us financially and as a society, so slowing this epidemic and saving human lives must be governments’ first priority.”
“Our analysis further underpins the need for sharper action to absorb the shock, and a more co-ordinated response by governments to maintain a lifeline to people, and a private sector that will emerge in a very fragile state when the health crisis is past.”
Mr. Gurría welcomed the outcome of the G20 Virtual Summit, hosted by the Saudi Presidency, and the resolve shown by the G20 members to use all ammunition to support people and SMEs. In his statement, Mr Gurría built on his recent call for a “global Marshall Plan” to counteract the pandemic’s effects. To “inoculate” economies to current and future shocks, he urged the G20 Leaders to act immediately, to:
Recapitalise health and epidemiological systems;
Mobilise all macro-economic levers: monetary, fiscal, and structural policies;
Lift existing trade restrictions especially on much needed medical supplies;
Provide support to vulnerable developing and low-income countries;
Share and implement best practices to support workers and all individuals, employed and unemployed – particularly the most vulnerable;
Keep businesses afloat, particularly small and medium-sized firms, with special support packages in hardest hit sectors such as tourism.
Mr Gurría stressed that the implications for annual GDP growth will ultimately depend on many factors, including the magnitude and duration of national shutdowns, the extent of reduced demand for goods and services in other parts of the economy, and the speed at which significant fiscal and monetary support takes effect.
In all economies, the majority of this impact comes from the hit to output in retail and wholesale trade, and in professional and real estate services. There are notable cross-country differences in some sectors, with closures of transport manufacturing relatively important in some countries, while the decline in tourist and leisure activities is relatively important in others.
The impact effect of business closures could result in reductions of 15% or more in the level of output throughout the advanced economies and major emerging-market economies. In the median economy, output would decline by 25%.
Variations in the impact effect across economies reflect differences in the composition of output. Many countries in which tourism is relatively important could potentially be affected more severely by shutdowns and limitations on travel. At the other extreme, countries with relatively sizeable agricultural and mining sectors, including oil production, may experience smaller initial effects from containment measures, although output will be subsequently hit by reduced global commodity demand.
There will also be some variation in the timing of the initial impact on output across economies, reflecting differences in the timing and degree of containment measures. In China, the peak adverse impact on output is already past, with some shutdown measures now being eased.
The OECD has committed its expertise to support governments in developing effective policies in any sector necessary to slow the pandemic’s spread and blunt its economic and societal effects – from health, taxes, labour and employment to SMEs, education, science and technology, trade and investment and more.
Compliments of the OECD.
March 31, 2020
• The IMF’s Executive Board has approved a framework for a new round of bilateral borrowing, to succeed agreements currently in place through end-2020
• This action is part of a broader package on IMF resources and governance reform that will help maintain the IMF’s lending capacity of $1 trillion
• These are critical steps to ensure that the IMF can support its membership through the global pandemic now unfolding and beyond.
Washington, DC – The IMF Executive Board approved yesterday a framework for a new round of bilateral borrowing by the IMF from January 1, 2021, to succeed the current bilateral borrowing agreements (BBAs) currently in place through end-December 2020 . The framework is broadly the same as that agreed in 2016 for the current BBAs. The new BBAs will have an initial term of three years through end-2023, which is extendable by one more year through end-2024. These new agreements will help maintain the IMF’s lending capacity of US$1 trillion for the next few years, ensuring its ability to respond to members’ needs.
The BBAs are the IMF’s third line of defense after quotas and the New Arrangements to Borrow (NAB). Today’s Executive Board decision is part of a broader package on IMF resources and governance reform endorsed by the IMF membership during the 2019 Annual Meetings, and builds on the Board’s January 2020 approval of a doubling of the NAB and guidance on quota reforms.
The new BBAs and the doubling of the NAB are expected to take effect on January 1, 2021, subject to timely approvals by creditor member countries and their institutions. These are critical steps to ensure that the IMF can support its membership through the global pandemic now unfolding and beyond.
Compliments of the IMF.
30 March 2020
Today, the Commission has issued new practical advice to ensure that mobile workers within the EU, in particular those in critical occupations to fight the coronavirus pandemic, can reach their workplace. This includes but is not limited to those working in the health care and food sectors, and other essential services like childcare, elderly care, and critical staff for utilities. Together with the Guidance on the implementation of the temporary restriction on non-essential travel to the EU also issued today, this responds to requests made by EU leaders on 26 March and seeks to address practical concerns of citizens and companies affected by the measures taken to limit the spread of the coronavirus, as well as of national authorities implementing the measures.
While it is understandable that Member States have introduced internal border controls to limit the spread of the coronavirus, it is imperative that critical workers are able to reach their destination without delay.
Nicolas Schmit, the Commissioner for Jobs and Social Rights, said: “Thousands of women and men working hard to keep us safe, healthy and with food on the table need to cross EU borders to go to work. It is our collective responsibility to ensure that they are not hindered in their movement, while taking every precaution to avoid further spread of the pandemic.”
The guidelines published today identify a range of workers that exercise critical occupations, and for which continued free movement in the EU is deemed essential. The list provided in these guidelines is not exhaustive. Examples include health associate professionals, child and elderly care workers, scientists in health-related industries, those needed to install critical medical devices, firefighters and police officers, transport workers, as well as persons working in the food sector. The Commission urges Member States to establish specific burden free and fast procedures to ensure a smooth passage for such frontier workers, including proportionate health screening.
Beyond these specific categories of workers, the guidelines also clarify that Member States should allow frontier workers in general to continue crossing borders if work in the sector concerned is still allowed in the host Member State.Member States should treat cross border workers and national workers in the same manner.
As regards seasonal workers, particularly in the agricultural sector, Member States are asked to exchange information on their different needs at technical level and to establish specific procedures to ensure a smooth passage for such workers, in order to respond to labour shortages as a result of the crisis. Seasonal workers in agriculture perform in certain circumstances critical harvesting, planting and tending functions. In such a situation, Member States should treat those persons as critical workers and communicate to the employers the necessity to provide for adequate health and safety protection.
These guidelines complement the recently adopted Guidelines for border management measures to protect health and ensure the availability of goods and essential services as well as the Guidance on the implementation of the temporary restriction on non-essential travel to the EU which were also presented today.
The Commission will continue to identify the best practices with Member States which can be extended to all Member States for allowing workers to exercise their crucial occupations without undue hindrance.
Background
The coronavirus pandemic has led to the introduction of unprecedented measures across EU Member States, including reintroduced checks at the internal borders.
Frontier workers, posted workers as well as seasonal workers live in one EU country but work in another. Many of them are crucial for their host Member States, for instance for the health care system, the provision of other essential services including the setting up and maintenance of medical equipment and infrastructure, or ensuring the supply of necessity goods. A coordinated approach at EU level is therefore key.
On 26 March, the Heads of State or government stated: “We will urgently address, with the assistance of the Commission, the remaining problems concerning EU citizens blocked at internal EU borders and prevented from returning to their home countries and cross-border and seasonal workers who have to be able to continue essential activities while avoiding further spread of the virus.” These guidelines presented today are the Commission’s immediate response to this call, alongside the Guidance on the implementation of the temporary restriction on non-essential travel to the EU which include the repatriation of EU citizens.
Compliments of the European Commission.
30 March 2020 | 13:15
The EU is taking swift action to make available money to help tackle the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Council today adopted two legislative acts to quickly release funding from the EU budget for tackling the COVID-19 crisis. One of the acts amends the rules of the structural and investment funds, while the other extends the scope of the EU Solidarity Fund.
The Coronavirus Response Investment Initiative will give member states access to €37 billion of cohesion money to strengthen healthcare systems, as well as support small and medium-sized enterprises, short-term working schemes, and community-based services.
Of the total, about €8 billion will come from unspent pre-financing in 2019 under the structural funds. The new measure allows member states to spend unused money to mitigate the impact of the pandemic instead of returning it to the EU budget. Another €29 billion will be disbursed early from allocations which would have been due later this year.
Expenditure will be made available as of 1 February 2020 to cover costs already incurred in efforts to save lives and protect citizens.
Member states will also have greater flexibility to make transfers between cohesion policy programmes in order to redirect resources to where they are most needed.
The Council also amended the scope of the EU Solidarity Fund to include public health emergencies in addition to natural disasters. This will help member states and accession countries meet people’s immediate needs during the coronavirus pandemic.
Next steps
Given the urgency of the situation, both legislative acts will be published in the Official Journal of the European Union on 31 March and will enter into force on 1 April 2020.
Regulation concerning the Coronavirus Response Investment Initiative
Regulation extending the scope of the EU Solidarity Fund
Compliments of the European Council.
March 25, 2020
Yesterday, the Commission adopted decisions on harmonised standards which will allow manufacturers to place on the market high performing devices to protect patients, health care professionals and citizens in general. The standards will facilitate a faster and less expensive conformity assessment procedure. The revised harmonised standards play a pivotal role in the current coronavirus pandemic because they relate to critical devices* such as:
medical face masks
surgical drapes, gowns and suits
washer-disinfectors
sterilisation
Stella Kyriakides, Commissioner for Health said: “We must not waste a second in our fight against the coronavirus. With the measures we adopt today, we speed up the entry of safe, essential medical equipment and devices such as masks, gowns and suits in the EU market. This equipment is fundamental for our health professionals – the brave and resilient women and men at the front line – to keep saving lives”.
Once implemented, the use of these standards will allow manufacturers of medical devices and other concerned economic operators, to comply with the health and safety requirements of the EU legislation, taking into account the most updated technical solutions. These standards, once referenced in the Official Journal of the European Union, grant conformity of devices with the requirements of the three Directives on medical devices.
The decision to adopt these harmonised standards for medical devices represents an additional measure taken by the Commission to respond to the coronavirus outbreak. Also upon the urgent request of the Commission, the European Committee for Standardization (CEN) and the European Committee for Electrotechnical Standardization (CENELEC), in cooperation with their members made available a number of European standards for certain medical devices and personal protective equipment.
Background
European standards are an essential pillar of a fully functioning internal market. They reduce costs, promote innovation, ensure interoperability between different devices and services, and help companies to access markets.
To support EU product legislation, the Commission can request the development of European harmonised standards to facilitate compliance by manufacturers of the relevant requirements. Once agreed and referenced in the Official Journal of the European Union, these harmonised standards become part of EU law and allow companies an easy and direct access to the internal market for their products, while ensuring a high degree of safety for users and consumers.
European legislation for medical devices also relies on harmonised standards. In particular, under the three current directives on medical devices, there are about 300 harmonised standards conferring presumption of conformity with the legal essential requirements. The Commission and the concerned European standardisation organisations (CEN and CENELEC) continuously work together to update and improve the set of harmonised standards available to economic operators in the EU. In such a common effort to face the coronavirus pandemic, the Commission, CEN and CENELEC have agreed to make a number of harmonised standards for important medical protective equipment like face masks and single-use gloves freely available to those companies that are willing to start producing these items.
Compliments of the European Commission.