Anonymised data on individual banks in the entire euro area will be available to academic researchers
Several access modes will be tested with a view to establishing a permanent framework for research access to ECB data

The European Central Bank (ECB) today launched a pilot project to facilitate research access to data it collects from the financial sector. The initiative aims to promote independent research, enhance cross-country economic analysis and promote a deeper understanding of financial dynamics within the euro area. Eligible researchers will be granted access to anonymised data on balance sheets and interest rates offered by individual banks in the euro area.
“We need independent academic research using our data to challenge our own analysis and thinking. I am therefore very happy that we are now able to grant research access to two of our main datasets”, said ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel. Up to ten research projects will be supported in the pilot phase. Eurosystem national central banks will serve as data access points through their respective research data centres. They will offer researchers access to the anonymised datasets in a secure environment as well as the possibility to run calculations on the data on their behalf.
The pilot project will test the effectiveness and convenience of the different access modes. After 18 months, the potential establishment of a permanent infrastructure for research access will be assessed. More information on the available datasets, eligibility criteria for researchers and application details are available on the ECB’s website.
 
Compliments of the European Central BankThe post ECB launches pilot project for research access to confidential statistical data first appeared on European American Chamber of Commerce New York [EACCNY] | Your Partner for Transatlantic Business Resources.

Ahead of tomorrow’s World Consumer Rights Day, the Commission has published the 2025 Consumer Conditions Scoreboard, which shows that 68% of European consumers feel confident about the safety of the products that they buy, with 70% trusting that their consumer rights are respected by traders.  However, data from the Scoreboard also shows that online risks for consumers persist, including scams, fake reviews, and misleading advertising practices.
Commissioner for Democracy, Justice, the Rule of Law, and Consumer Protection, Michael McGrath, said: “The findings of the Consumer Conditions Scoreboard are clear: the EU must maintain ambitious policies to protect consumers, both online –and offline. We must ensure the proper implementation and enforcement of our legislation, and address gaps to improve digital fairness. In these times of uncertainty, consumer policy can make a tangible difference in people’s lives and help ensure a level playing field for businesses, showing the added value of the EU and contributing to sustainable growth.”
The results of the Scoreboard will now be discussed with Member States, consumer associations and businesses, and will feed into the preparation of forthcoming initiatives such as the Consumer Agenda 2025-2030 and the Digital Fairness Act.
More information on the results of the scoreboard can be found in our press release.
 
Compliments of the European CommissionThe post European Commission | New data shows strong levels of consumer trust, but online threats persist first appeared on European American Chamber of Commerce New York [EACCNY] | Your Partner for Transatlantic Business Resources.

Simulations that incorporate machine learning-based predictions of conflict suggest large payoffs from preventive policies, including efforts to promote macroeconomic stability and growth 
Blog post by Franck Bousquet, Paul M. Bisca, Christopher Rauh, Benjamin Seimon | Macroeconomic policy can play a key role in preventing armed conflict, in turn saving lives and avoiding injuries, forced displacement and migration, and vast damage to the economy.
That’s according to new IMF research, based on policy simulations incorporating machine learning-based predictions of conflict. The paper finds that every $1 invested in prevention—through policy efforts to promote macroeconomic stability and growth, strengthen institutions, and support local community development—can save between $26 and $103 in possible conflict-related costs. These include the cost of massive humanitarian needs as well as lost economic output.
As the Chart of the Week shows, those savings are particularly notable in high-risk countries suffering from recent violence.

Creating economic opportunities that can help foster peace and stability is more critical than ever. Last year, state-based conflicts rose to their highest level in half a century, according to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program at Sweden’s Uppsala University. Non-state violence also is at a high level. In this context, the IMF is paying greater attention to fragile and conflict-affected states, including through a dedicated strategy.
Recent IMF research shows that three areas of domestic macroeconomic policies are especially effective in reducing the risk of conflict, at reasonable costs:

Healthier fiscal positions and improved state capacity. The risk of conflict is reduced when governments collect more than they spend, and use extra money to deliver better services and economic development.

A resilient labor market and other hallmarks of a resilient economy. When unemployment is high, the likelihood and intensity of violence increases because when people have jobs, they are less likely to pick up arms.

International engagement to improve state capacity. The analysis shows that IMF financial support to countries in need is associated with reductions in the likelihood of violence by 1.5-4.0 percentage points. In other words, macroeconomic support can complement peacebuilding efforts.

As benefits from prevention are highest where violence has not yet fully erupted, developing early warning systems will be crucial for policymakers. This is especially important in fragile states where social tensions and risks may be on the rise but are currently less visible.
These findings underscore the importance of well-tailored economic policies and capacity building not only for overcoming fragility, but also potentially to reduce the risk of armed conflict in fragile states.
—This blog is based on an IMF working paper by Raphael Espinoza of the IMF Western Hemisphere Department, Hannes Mueller of the Barcelona School of Economics, Christopher Rauh of Cambridge University, and Benjamin Seimon of the Fundació d’Economia Analítica in Barcelona.
 
Compliments of the International Monetary FundThe post IMF | How Sound Economic Policy Can Help Prevent Conflict first appeared on European American Chamber of Commerce New York [EACCNY] | Your Partner for Transatlantic Business Resources.

On 12 March, the United States imposed tariffs of up to 25% on imports of steel, aluminium, and certain products containing steel and aluminium from the European Union and other trading partners. In response, the Commission is launching a series of countermeasures to protect European businesses, workers and consumers from the impact of these unjustified trade restrictions.
Context: measures and countermeasures imposed under the previous Trump administration
In June 2018, the first Trump Administration introduced tariffs on European steel and aluminium exports (known as “section 232” tariffs), targeting €6.4 billion of EU goods* (€8 billion based on 2024 flows and values). In January 2020, additional tariffs, affecting around €40 million* of EU exports of certain derivative steel and aluminium products, followed. The EU responded to these with a targeted package of so-called “rebalancing measures”.
In 2018, the EU countermeasures were structured into two sets of measures (Annexes I and II), each affecting different product categories. Annex I targeted €2.8 billion worth of US goods, while Annex II was to target €3.6 billion worth of goods. A similar EU response followed the second set of US tariffs in 2020.
Concerning the 2018 rebalancing measures, while Annex I came into effect immediately in June 2018, Annex II was scheduled to enter into force in June 2021. Before the scheduled implementation of Annex II, the EU suspended all measures (i.e. both Annexes) until 31 March 2025. The 2020 EU rebalancing measures will also be coming back on 1 April. This followed discussions with the US which agreed to suspend its 232 tariffs on EU exporters within a certain quota. This provided both sides with space to work together on a longer-term solution through a global arrangement that would address carbon intensity and global overcapacity.
The new US measures
The US measures implemented on 12 March consist of three key elements:

Reinstating the June 2018 section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminium products. These covered different types of semifinished and finished products, such as steel pipes, wire and tin foil.
Increasing the tariffs imposed on aluminium from the original 10% to 25%.
Extending the tariffs to other products, notably:

Steel and aluminium products, such as household products like cooking ware or window frames.
Products that are only partly made of steel or aluminium, such as machinery, gym equipment, certain electrical appliances or furniture.

In addition, the US Secretary of Commerce will establish by 12 May 2025 a system whereby the US will continue to extend the list of steel and aluminium derivatives products subject to additional duties of up to 25%.
The US tariffs will affect a total of €26 billion of EU exports, which corresponds to approximately 5% of total EU goods exports to the US. Based on current import flows, this will result in US importers having to pay up to €6 billion in additional import tariffs.
The EU’s response
The Commission has launched a swift and proportionate response, designed to defend European interests through two countermeasures:

The reimposition of the suspended 2018 and 2020 rebalancing measures;
The imposition of a new package of additional measures.

Reimposing suspended countermeasures
On 1 April 2025, the 2018 and 2020 rebalancing measures will automatically be reinstated once their suspension expires on 31 March. For the first time, these rebalancing measures will be implemented in full. Tariffs will be applied on products ranging from boats to bourbon to motorbikes.
A new package of additional measures
Since the new US tariffs are significantly broader in scope and affect a significantly higher value of European trade, the Commission launched on 12 March the process to impose additional countermeasures on the US. These will target approximately €18 billion worth of goods, which will then apply together with the reimposed measures from 2018. The objective is to ensure that the total value of the EU measures corresponds to the increased value of trade impacted by the new US tariffs.
The first step in this process is the launch of a two-week consultation with EU stakeholders. These consultations will ensure that the right products are chosen for inclusion in the new countermeasures, ensuring an effective and proportionate response that keeps disruption to EU businesses and consumers to a minimum.
The full process to impose the additional countermeasures is as follows:

12 March – Stakeholder consultations begin:

The list of targeted products proposed by the Commission is published on the DG TRADE website.
The proposed target products include a mixture of industrial and agricultural products:

Industrial products include i.a.- steel and aluminium products, textiles, leather goods, home appliances, house tools, plastics, wood products.Agricultural products include i.a.- poultry, beef, certain seafood, nuts, eggs, dairy, sugar and vegetables.

26 March and following days:

Stakeholder consultation concludes.
The Commission consolidates and assesses the stakeholder inputs.
The Commission finalises its draft implementing act and consult the Member States on it:

The legal basis for this act will be the Enforcement Regulation (Regulation (EU) No 654/2014), as we consider the US measures to be safeguards.
This process will follow the comitology procedure, whereby EU Member States will be invited to endorse the proposed measures before they are adopted.

Mid-April – the adoption process concludes and the act imposing the countermeasures enters into force.

* Values presented in 2018 prices.
 
Compliments of the European CommissionThe post European Commission | EU countermeasures on US steel and aluminium tariffs explained first appeared on European American Chamber of Commerce New York [EACCNY] | Your Partner for Transatlantic Business Resources.

ECB wage tracker, updated with agreements signed up to 19 February 2025, broadly unrevised compared to data release following January Governing Council meeting
Forward-looking information continues to suggest that negotiated wage pressures will ease overall in 2025
Forward-looking information from the wage tracker should not be interpreted as a forecast

The European Central Bank (ECB) wage tracker, which only covers active collective bargaining agreements, indicates negotiated wage growth with smoothed one-off payments of 4.7% in 2024 (based on an average coverage of 48.2% of employees in participating countries) and 3.3% in 2025 (based on an average coverage of 40.5%). The ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments indicates average negotiated wage growth of 4.8% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025. The steeply downward trend of the forward-looking wage tracker in 2025 partly reflects the mechanical impact of large one-off payments (that were paid in 2024, but drop out in 2025) and the front-loaded nature of wage increases in some sectors in 2024. The wage tracker excluding one-off payments indicates negotiated wage growth of 4.1% in 2024 and 3.9% in 2025. See Chart 1 and Table 1 for further details.
The ECB wage tracker may be subject to revisions, and the forward-looking part should not be interpreted as a forecast as it only captures information in a more limited share of active collective bargaining agreements. As new agreements are made throughout the year, the growth rates indicated by the wage tracker are subject to change.
For a more comprehensive assessment of wage developments in the euro area, please refer to the March 2025 macroeconomic projection exercise, which indicates a yearly growth rate of compensation per employee in the euro area of 4.6% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025, with a quarterly profile in 2025 of 3.8% in the first quarter, 3.7% in the second quarter, 3.4% in the third quarter and 2.8% in the fourth quarter.
The ECB publishes four wage tracker indicators for the aggregate of seven participating euro area countries on the ECB Data Portal.

Chart 1
ECB wage tracker: forward-looking signals for negotiated wages and revisions to previous data release

2023-25

Revisions to previous data release

(Left-hand scale: yearly growth rates, in percentages; right-hand scale: percentage share of employees)

(percentage points)

Sources: ECB calculations based on data provided by the Deutsche Bundesbank, the Bank of Greece, the Banco de España, the Banque de France, the Banca d’Italia, the Oesterreichische Nationalbank, the Dutch employers’ association AWVN and Eurostat. Indicator of negotiated wage growth calculated using data from the Deutsche Bundesbank, the Spanish Ministry of Labour and Social Economy, the Banque de France, the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), Statistics Netherlands, Statistics Austria and Haver Analytics.

What do the four different indicators show?

The headline ECB wage tracker is a tracker of negotiated wage growth that includes collectively agreed one-off payments, such as those related to inflation compensation, bonuses or back-dated pay, which are smoothed over 12 months.

The ECB wage tracker excluding one-off payments reflects the extent of structural (or permanent) negotiated wage increases.

The ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments is constructed using a methodology that, both in terms of data sources and statistical methodology, is conceptually similar to, but not necessarily the same as, the one used for the ECB indicator of negotiated wage growth.

The share of employees covered is the percentage of employees across the participating countries that are directly covered by ECB wage tracker data. This indicator provides information on the representativeness of the underlying (negotiated) wage growth signals obtained from the set of wage tracker indicators for the aggregate of the participating countries. Employee coverage differs across countries and within each country over time (more details provided in Table 2).

Table 1
ECB wage tracker: summary details.

(ECB wage tracker indicators reflect yearly growth in negotiated wages, in percentages; coverage is defined as the share of employees in participating countries, in percentages)

ECB wage tracker
Coverage

Headline indicator
excluding one-off payments
with unsmoothed one-off payments
Share of employees (%)

2013-2023
2.0
1.9
2.0
49.1

2024
4.7
4.1
4.8
48.2

2025
3.3
3.9
2.8
40.5

2024 Q1
4.1
3.7
5.1
48.7

2024 Q2
4.4
3.8
3.4
48.6

2024 Q3
5.0
4.4
6.5
48.1

2024 Q4
5.3
4.7
4.2
47.5

Jan-25
4.8
4.3
2.9
47.2

Feb-25
4.9
4.7
3.2
47.1

Mar-25
4.7
4.6
1.7
43.9

Apr-25
4.7
4.7
4.4
43.3

May-25
4.4
4.4
4.1
43.1

Jun-25
4.2
4.2
3.9
40.7

2025 Q3
2.2
3.5
1.7
38.2

2025 Q4
1.5
3.0
2.9
35.5

Sources: ECB calculations based on data provided by the Deutsche Bundesbank, the Bank of Greece, the Banco de España, the Banque de France, the Banca d’Italia, the Oesterreichische Nationalbank, AWVN and Eurostat.
Notes: See the technical details at the end of this press release. Rows with values in italics and bold refer to the forward-looking aspect of the respective indicators.

Table 2
Employee coverage by country

(share of employees in each country, in %)

Germany
Greece
Spain
France
Italy
Netherlands
Austria
Euro area

2013-2023
42.0
10.0
51.7
51.6
48.7
64.1
57.8
49.1

2024 Q1
44.2
15.9
47.8
47.7
48.3
62.6
78.6
48.7

2024 Q2
44.6
15.9
47.8
47.7
48.1
62.3
77.8
48.6

2024 Q3
44.7
15.8
47.7
47.6
47.9
60.7
77.7
48.1

2024 Q4
44.1
15.9
47.8
47.7
47.9
58.1
77.5
47.5

2025 Q1
42.2
18.0
46.8
46.0
44.7
57.1
75.5
46.1

2025 Q2
38.5
13.1
46.1
36.1
34.9
54.8
69.4
42.4

2025 Q3
37.0
5.5
39.9
28.2
27.3
49.4
67.3
38.2

2025 Q4
35.1
5.1
34.6
23.6
26.8
39.5
62.3
35.5

Sources: ECB, Deutsche Bundesbank, Bank of Greece, Banco de España, Banque de France, Banca d’Italia, Oesterreichische Nationalbank, AWVN and Eurostat.
Notes: The euro area aggregate comprises the seven participating wage tracker countries. The coverage shows the relative strength of wage signals for each country and the euro area. The historical average is calculated from January 2016 to December 2023 for Greece and from February 2020 to December 2023 for Austria. For the other countries, it is calculated from January 2013 to December 2023. Rows with values in italics and bold refer to the forward-looking components.

For media queries, please contact Nicos Keranis, tel.: +49 172 7587237.
Notes:

The ECB wage tracker is the result of a Eurosystem partnership currently comprising the European Central Bank and seven euro area national central banks: the Deutsche Bundesbank, the Bank of Greece, the Banco de España, the Banque de France, the Banca d’Italia, De Nederlandsche Bank and the Oesterreichische Nationalbank. It is based on a highly granular database of active collective bargaining agreements for Germany, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands and Austria. The wage tracker should be considered as only one of many possible sources that can help to assess wage pressures in the euro area. These are not wage growth forecasts, as they only indicate wage pressures that mechanically arise from the collective bargaining agreements already in place. The Eurosystem and ECB staff macroeconomic projections remain the most comprehensive assessment of the wage outlook for the euro area.

The wage tracker methodology uses a double aggregation approach. First, it aggregates the highly granular information on collective bargaining agreements and constructs the wage tracker indicators at the country-level using information on the employee coverage for each country. Second, it uses this information to construct the aggregate for the euro area using time-varying weights based on total compensation of employees in the participating countries.
Given the forward-looking nature of the tracker, which is dependent on the underlying collective bargaining agreements database, the wage signals should always be considered as dependent on the information available at any given point in time and are thus subject to revision.
The results in this press release do not represent the views of the ECB’s decision-making bodies.

 
Compliments of the European Central BankThe post ECB | New data release: ECB wage tracker continues to indicate that negotiated wage pressures will ease first appeared on European American Chamber of Commerce New York [EACCNY] | Your Partner for Transatlantic Business Resources.

The Council reached a political agreement today on a new EU directive (DAC9) that will improve administrative cooperation in the field of taxation.
The objective of this legislation is to enhance cooperation and information exchange on minimum effective corporate taxation to better fulfil the filling obligations that multinational enterprise groups and large-scale domestic groups have under the Pillar 2 of the G20/OECD global agreement. This international deal was reached to avoid base erosion and profit shifting, ensuring that large corporations pay a minimum effective taxation. The Pillar 2 rules became part of EU law in 2022.

We’re making the next step in implementing the rules on minimum effective taxation of the largest multinationals. The companies concerned will have a single format for filing relevant information, and member states’ tax authorities will closely cooperate on exchanging relevant information. This will significantly simplify the filing process and reduce the administrative burden both for tax authorities and companies concerned.
Andrzej Domański, Minister of Finance of Poland

DAC9 updates the existing EU’s directive on administrative cooperation (DAC) by expanding tax transparency rules. It simplifies reporting for large corporations, enhances data exchange between tax authorities, and aligns with global minimum taxation standards.
This new directive also creates a standard form, in line with the one developed by the G20/OECD’s Inclusive Framework on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS), which multinationals and large domestic groups will be required to use to report tax-related information that are necessary to ensure proper functioning of the system on minimum rate of corporate tax. The profit of the large multinational and domestic groups or companies with a combined annual turnover of at least €750 million is meant to be taxed at a minimum rate of 15%.
Next steps
The DAC9 directive will be formally adopted by the Council, which acts as a sole legislator, once the legal linguistic work has been completed. After that, it will be published in the Official Journal and will enter into force on the day following that of its publication.
Member states will have to implement DAC 9 by 31 December 2025. Countries opting to delay the implementation of the ‘Pillar 2 Directive’ are still required to transpose DAC 9 by the same deadline.
Background
On 8 October 2021, almost 140 countries in the OECD/G20 Inclusive Framework on BEPS reached a landmark agreement on international tax reform, as well as on a detailed implementation plan.
On 22 December 2021, the Commission presented a proposal for a directive which aims to implement Pillar 2 in a way which is consistent and compatible with EU law.
The ‘Pillar 2 directive’ sets out an obligation to file the top-up tax information return (TTIR) that contains the information a tax administration needs to perform an appropriate risk assessment and evaluate the entity’s tax liability correctly. The directive allows for multinationals to perform a central TTIR filing for the entire group by the ultimate parent entity or designated filing entity, instead of each company that forms part of a multinational enterprise group filing a local TTIR in each jurisdiction they are based in. DAC9, which will contain the standard format of a TTIR, will render these provisions operational.
The Commission presented the DAC9 proposal on 17 October 2024. The European Parliament was consulted on the proposal and issued its opinion on 12 February 2025.
 
Compliments of the Council of the EUThe post Council of the EU | Council agrees to enhance cooperation and information exchange on minimum effective corporate taxation first appeared on European American Chamber of Commerce New York [EACCNY] | Your Partner for Transatlantic Business Resources.

NEW YORK—The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the February 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that households’ inflation expectations increased slightly at the short-term horizon but remained unchanged at the medium- and longer-term horizons. Households expressed more pessimism about their year-ahead financial situations in February, while unemployment, delinquency, and credit access expectations deteriorated notably. Meanwhile, spending growth expectations rose significantly. Average quit probabilities among those employed fell to the lowest level since July 2023.
The main findings from the February 2025 Survey are:
Inflation

Median inflation expectations increased by 0.1 percentage point at the one-year horizon, to 3.1%, and were unchanged at the three-year and five-year horizons (both at 3.0%) in February. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at the one-year horizon and was unchanged at the three- and five-year horizons.
Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—increased at all three horizons.

Median home price growth expectations increased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.3%. This series has been moving in a narrow range between 3.0% and 3.3% since August 2023.
Year-ahead commodity price expectations increased for all commodities. Median expected price growth increased by 1.1 percentage points for gas to 3.7% (its highest level since June 2024), 0.5 percentage point for food to 5.1% (its highest level since May 2024), 0.4 percentage point for the cost of medical care to 7.2%, 1.0% percentage point for the cost of a college degree to 6.9%, and 0.7 percentage point for rent to 6.7%.

Labor Market

Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations were unchanged at 3.0% in February. The series has been moving within a narrow range between 2.7% and 3.0% since January 2024.
Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—jumped 5.4 percentage points to 39.4%, its highest reading since September 2023. The increase was broad-based across age, education, and income groups.
The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 14.1%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily (expected quit rate) in the next 12 months decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 17.6%, its lowest reading since July 2023. The decrease in the expected quit rate was broad-based across education and income groups.
The mean perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months if one’s current job was lost decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 51.2%, remaining below its trailing 12-month average of 52.5%.

Household Finance

The median expected growth in household income increased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1% in February. The series has been moving in a narrow range between 2.9% and 3.3% since January 2023.

Median nominal household spending growth expectations rose by 0.6 percentage point to 5.0%, moving just above its trailing 12-month average of 4.9%. The increase was broad-based across age, education, and income groups, but most pronounced for those with at most a high school education and those with an annual household income below $50,000.
Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago showed a larger share of households reporting it is harder to get credit, and a smaller share reporting it is easier. Expectations for future credit availability deteriorated considerably in February, with the share of respondents expecting it will be harder to obtain credit a year from now increasing to 46.7% from 35.6%. This reading is the highest since June 2024.
The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three monthsincreased by 1.3 percentage points to 14.6%, the highest level since April 2020. The increase was driven by those without a college degree and largest for those under age 40.
The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes at current income level increased by 0.2 percentage point to 3.4%.
Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 5.0%, the lowest reading since July 2017.
The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.4 percentage point to 25.4%.
Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago were mostly unchanged, but year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations deteriorated considerably. The share of households expecting a worse financial situation in one year from now rose to 27.4%, the highest level since November 2023.
The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now dropped by 3.3 percentage points to 37.0%, the lowest level since December 2023.

About the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE)

The SCE contains information about how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing, and education to behave. It also provides insight into Americans’ views about job prospects and earnings growth and their expectations about future spending and access to credit. The SCE also provides measures of uncertainty regarding consumers’ outlooks. Expectations are also available by age, geography, income, education, and numeracy.
The SCE is a nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to 12 months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, this panel allows us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time. For further information on the SCE, please refer to an overview of the survey methodology here, the interactive chart guide, and the survey questionnaire.
For more information, please contact:

Mariah Measey, NY FED

 
Compliments of the Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkThe post NY Fed | Medium- and Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Unchanged; Consumers’ Pessimism About Their Future Financial Situations Increases first appeared on European American Chamber of Commerce New York [EACCNY] | Your Partner for Transatlantic Business Resources.

Federal bank regulatory agencies today reported in the 2024 Shared National Credit (SNC) report that credit risk associated with large, syndicated bank loans remains moderate. However, the agencies noted weakened credit quality trends continue due to the pressure of higher interest rates on leveraged borrowers and compressed operating margins in some industry sectors.
The agencies also noted that the magnitude and direction of risk in 2025 is likely to be impacted by borrowers’ ability to manage interest expenses, real estate conditions, and other macroeconomic factors.
The 2024 review reflects the examination of SNC loans originated on or before June 30, 2024. The review focused on leveraged loans and stressed borrowers from various industry sectors and assessed aggregate loan commitments of $100 million or more that are shared by multiple regulated financial institutions.
The 2024 SNC portfolio included 6,699 borrowers totaling $6.5 trillion in commitments, an increase in commitments of 1.8 percent from a year ago. The percentage of loans that deserve management’s close attention (“non-pass” loans comprised of SNC commitments rated “special mention” and “classified”) increased from 8.9 percent of total commitments to 9.1 percent year over year. While U.S. banks hold 45 percent of all SNC commitments, they hold only 23 percent of non-pass loans. Nearly half of total SNC commitments are leveraged, and leveraged loans comprise 79 percent of non-pass loans.
 
Compliments of the US Federal Reserve SystemThe post The Fed | Agencies issue 2024 Shared National Credit Program report first appeared on European American Chamber of Commerce New York [EACCNY] | Your Partner for Transatlantic Business Resources.